No 2019 election

[Deleted]

What if the FTPA actually prevented a 2019 election and Corbyn didn't allow one?

[peterl]

We would be coming up on an election right now. Which on balance would probably lead to a smaller Tory majority. Also, Corbyn would presumably still be Labour leader without the 2019 loss bringing him down.

[ricmk]

That's a great question. I think we'd have got to a second Brexit referendum in the end. The withdrawal bill wouldn't have passed without this in, and I think if an election really was off the table, the Tories would ultimately have campaigned with enthusiasm for their deal in a 2nd referendum, painting the enemy as democracy deniers. Nonsense of course, but having seen the 2019 campaign, I doubt the other side would have been ready for it, and I think the deal may well have passed.

We'd likely still be stuck with Johnson and Corbyn. 1 out of 2 is bad enough!

[clyde1998]

Mar 22, 2022 10:41:34 GMT peterl said:

We would be coming up on an election right now. Which on balance would probably lead to a smaller Tory majority. Also, Corbyn would presumably still be Labour leader without the 2019 loss bringing him down.

It's possible the Brexit withdrawal agreement would've been passed, albeit less easily as it was in reality, while the trade agreement may have passed too. This would've meant the election we'd've been having about now wouldn't've been dominated by Brexit as in 2019; notwithstanding the Russia-Ukraine issue, there probably would've been a much greater focus on general domestic issues as a result. This benefitted Labour in 2017, where the Conservatives' domestic policies were generally viewed less favourably than Labour's. At the same time, Corbyn's popularity probably wouldn't have recovered in the same way as it did in 2017. Corbyn's leadership may have lead to more defections away from Labour, which wouldn't have helped their cause.

I think you're probably right, we'd have a smaller Conservative majority than now.

[The Bishop]

Of course, Covid might have impacted us at least slightly differently in this scenario.

[therealriga]

Corbyn's past statements on Russia would certainly be used against him.

[pericles]

I don't see how the opposition could have stopped an election forever, without the 'excuse' that a no-deal Brexit might happen by accident if they allowed it. The withdrawal agreement passed by 30 votes, while some of those MPs did not actually support it, it could have passed. Maybe MPs just didn't want to be railroaded into voting for it at Johnson's pace and enough Labour MPs wanted to get Brexit done and not lose their seats for it to pass. Or maybe a second referendum would have gone through. With a second referendum, I struggle to see how it could have been implemented with a Government that strongly opposed it. That feels more challenging than the Benn Act, plus Remainers could have disagreed on the referendum question or even what Leave option(s) to put to the electorate.

[timrollpickering]

At what point would one of the EU27 get sick and tired of all this and force the issue? Perhaps with a statement like this:

Arrête de te foutre de ça! Nous opposons notre veto à toute autre demande de prolongation. Partez maintenant ou décidez de rester. Arrêtez de faire perdre du temps à tout le monde.

(Et faites quelque chose à propos de cette chef de parti condescendante incroyablement ennuyeuse qui pense qu'elle est la prochaine Premier Ministre. L'idée d'avoir à traiter avec elle rend le Brexit encore plus attrayant pour nous.)

[The Bishop]

Mar 22, 2022 15:35:16 GMT therealriga said:

Corbyn's past statements on Russia would certainly be used against him.

Of course, its not guaranteed that Corbyn would have stayed around to the end had that parliament completed its whole term.