|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on Apr 15, 2022 12:56:36 GMT
Unfortunately jamesdoyle's cumulative figures aren't displaying on my laptop. I have been thinking about his Index, and while I completely understand that it is not a predictive tool, I do feel that its limitation is that it is a weekly standalone statistic which really only has a retrospective relevance to that particular week (this is leaving aside questions about methodology and possible refinements thereto). If there were some way of using it to see whether there are discernable trends it might attract less adverse comment than it has been subject to. The metric I have been experimenting with (see my post above) would also be more useful displayed as a graph over time, because that would show the point at which the Conservatives started to do more badly than Labour in local by-elections (I don't have the data with me, but at a guess it was in February). It would also be useful to have the median performance figures for each party over time because that would give a more realistic take on LibDem and Green performance given that their figures in the cumulative totals are inflated by performances such as the Surrey Heath result last night. So you're saying that although it's not a predictive tool, you would like it to be?  |
|
|
|
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 15, 2022 13:03:08 GMT
Maybe the antics of the previous incumbent has put people off local democracy in Maldon? Anyway, Adam in Stroud should be pleased Yeah, it's good to get a win this time round. |
|
|
|
Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 15, 2022 13:09:28 GMT
It has been mentioned already in another thread, and is - as said there - the most crudely obvious expectations management. Roughly half that number of gains/losses would be distinctly bad for the Tories and very credible for Labour. It will take some time to work through, but I'll be interested to see the work on this site regarding where the losses occur, assuming they do. Apart from indications of possible trends in marginal seats I would also expect them to have an influence on how Tory MPs in marginal seats feel about Johnson, who I feel is very much still in the Performance Management/Disciplinary process as far as the 1922 Committee goes. |
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
|
Post by Khunanup on Apr 15, 2022 13:32:35 GMT
There’s an analysis on The Daily Telegraph by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now suggesting the Tories will lose 810 seats, Labour gain 835, the LDs lose 13 and Plaid gain 64. I presume the article is paywalled, but I’ll post the link if people think it’s credible enough to do. Those figures look . . . improbable. It's Baxter, of course they're a load of bollocks. Quite why supposedly serious media outlets give EC such credence mystifies more, or at least it would if they weren't staffed by a bunch of journos who are at least hopelessly ignorant when it comes to elections. |
|
peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
|
Post by peterl on Apr 15, 2022 13:36:29 GMT
Those figures look . . . improbable. It's Baxter, of course they're a load of bollocks. Quite why supposedly serious media outlets give EC such credence mystifies more, or at least it would if they weren't staffed by a bunch of journos who are at least hopelessly ignorant when it comes to elections. If they want to be lazy and can't manage to look up past results and come to their own conclusions, they should just come on here to find a decent prediction. |
|
|
|
Post by tonyhill on Apr 15, 2022 14:38:12 GMT
jamesdoyle - I think there's a significant difference between being able to track trends and being predictive. I don't know if your Index would reveal any trends but I think it would be more useful as a psephological tool if it did. Because it is dealing with a series of past events it wouldn't be predictive, but it would be more useful than it is now when every week is an ex post facto discrete event.
|
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Apr 15, 2022 15:27:21 GMT
Last few weeks have been dreadful for the Tories, though. Its at least possible that might count for more than data from when they were still leading in the polls. (having said that, I agree with matureleft that next month's results won't be a pro-Labour tidal wave - they may now do better than the above indicates though) There’s an analysis on The Daily Telegraph by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now suggesting the Tories will lose 810 seats, Labour gain 835, the LDs lose 13 and Plaid gain 64. I presume the article is paywalled, but I’ll post the link if people think it’s credible enough to do. It is paywalled and has been discussed on at least two other threads. That said, this is the most detailed figures I've seen from it. Do they give figures for the Greens and SNP? |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
|
Post by YL on Apr 15, 2022 15:56:14 GMT
There’s an analysis on The Daily Telegraph by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now suggesting the Tories will lose 810 seats, Labour gain 835, the LDs lose 13 and Plaid gain 64. I presume the article is paywalled, but I’ll post the link if people think it’s credible enough to do. It is paywalled and has been discussed on at least two other threads. That said, this is the most detailed figures I've seen from it. Do they give figures for the Greens and SNP? Figures for Plaid, but not for the SNP: although it mentions Scotland in the introduction, I don't think they've actually modelled the Scottish vote, presumably because of the different system. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2022 15:59:28 GMT
It is paywalled and has been discussed on at least two other threads. That said, this is the most detailed figures I've seen from it. Do they give figures for the Greens and SNP? Figures for Plaid, but not for the SNP: although it mentions Scotland in the introduction, I don't think they've actually modelled the Scottish vote, presumably because of the different system. Labour to gain MK is a particular highlight. As is Tories to gain Worcester - didn't they win control there last year? |
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Apr 15, 2022 16:18:02 GMT
Labour to gain MK is a particular highlight. As is Tories to gain Worcester - didn't they win control there last year? Yes they did, by the slimmest of margins.
And if they aren't including Scotland how on Earth do they have the Tories defending over 1900 seats?
|
|
