Local Council by-elections 14th April 2022

[olympian95]

LD 1286
con 662

[maxque]

Great week for Conservatives, then.

[iang]

Excellent week for us, two gains again. Bisley impressively convincing (a top of the range result)

[peterl]

Apr 14, 2022 22:52:11 GMT maxque said:

Great week for Conservatives, then.

They better get used to it. In 3 weeks time, they will suffer a whole lot more. Popcorn on order

[Bonham Gyles]

I'm delighted by the Bisley & West End result. A 49% increase in the vote share and if my maths is right Surrey Heath is back in NOC.

[jamesdoyle]

Apr 14, 2022 22:52:11 GMT maxque said:

Great week for Conservatives, then.

I wonder what variation on this Carlton will come up with?:

'I see the CON results to be fairly good in all the circumstances and would have expected more losses and poorer performance. It is LAB who are the standout losers as official opposition and 12-long years into that opposition, purged of the taint of Corbynism, solid dull leader, and yet making very poor progress indeed.'

[Robert Waller]

Brockworth East (Tewkesbury) council by-election result:

IND: 69.5% (+69.5)
CON: 15.3% (-0.9)
LDEM: 15.3% (+2.5)

No other Ind(s) (-65.9) and Lab (-5.1) as prev.

Votes cast: 498

Independent GAIN from Independent.

[Robert Waller]

Apr 14, 2022 22:51:43 GMT olympian95 said:

LD 1286
con 662

Bisley and West End (Surrey Heath) council by-election result:

LDEM: 66.0% (+48.8)
CON: 34.0% (-0.8)

No Ind (-31.8), UKIP (-9.3) and Lab (-6.9) as prev.

Votes cast: 1,948

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

[middleenglander]

Durham: West Auckland - Labour gain from Conservative

Party	2022 votes	2022 share	since 2021 "top"	since 2021 "average"	since 2017 "top"	since 2017 "average"
Labour	956	56.3%	+16.5%	+18.9%	+13.5%	+11.5%
Conservative	554	32.6%	-6.1%	-8.2%	+1.6%	+5.7%
Independent	187	11.0%	-0.7%	-1.9%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Other Independents			-9.7%	-8.8%	-13.5%	-14.5%
UKIP					-12.7%	-13.7%
Total votes	1,697		66%	72%	90%	97%

Swing:  Conservative to Labour 11¼% / 13½% since May and 6% / 3% since 2017 

Council now: 55 Labour, 23 Conservative, 20 Independent, 17 Liberal Democrat, 5 Derwentside Independent, 4 North East, 1 Green, 1 not specified

Maldon: Heybridge West - Liberal Democrat gain from Independent

Party	2022 votes	2022 share	since 2019 "top"	since 2019 "average"	since 2015 "top"	since 2015 "average"
Liberal Democrat	269	45.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	107	18.1%	-21.4%	-23.4%	-17.6%	-17.3%
Independent Burwood	93	15.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent Perry ^	72	12.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	49	8.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere	-15.2%	-15.3%
Elected Independents			-60.4%	-58.5%
Other Independent					-21.5%	-21.6%
BNP					-19.3%	-19.4%
Total votes	590		84%	98%	28%	28%

^ BNP candidate in 2015

Swing:  not meaningful

Council now:  11 Conservative, 11 Independent, 5 non-aligned Independent, 3 non-aligned Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat

Surrey Heath: Bisley & West End - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative

Party	2022 votes	2022 share	since 2019 "top"	since 2019 "average"
Liberal Democrat	1,286	66.0%	+48.8%	+50.2%
Conservative	662	34.0%	-0.8%	+0.0%
Independent			-31.8%	-33.3%
UKIP			-9.3%	-9.7%
Labour			-6.9%	-7.2%
Total votes	1,948		74%	77%

Swing:  if entirely meaningful Conservative to Liberal Democrat 25% since 2019

Council now:  17 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 6 Independent, 2 Green, 1 Labour

Tewkesbury: Brockworth East - No Description hold

Party	2022 votes	2022 share	since 2021 B	since 2019 "top"	since 2019 "average"
Independent Jason Mills	346	69.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	76	15.3%	+0.2%	-9.2%	-8.4%
Liberal Democrat	76	15.3%	+3.4%	+2.3%	+4.3%
No Description Charlotte Mills			-68.3%
Labour			-4.8%
No Description elected				-37.9%	-39.0%
UKIP				-9.6%	-10.3%
Green				-15.1%	-16.1%
Total votes	498		68%	54%

Swing: little change from 2021 by-election

Council now:  23 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat, 4 Brockworth First, 2 Tewkesbury & Twyning Independent, 1 Green

[tonyhill]

So we go into the local elections with accumulated totals of changes in vote in comparable contests in by-elections since the beginning of September 2021 of:

Conservative: -322.6%
Labour: - 219.4%
LibDem: +590.2%
Green: +268.8%

OK, I know, different contest patterns, comparing different years of previous elections, turnout, and so on.I don't expect May to be a LibDem/Green triumph, but on the other hand the Labour figure, although it has improved a bit in recent weeks, doesn't suggest that there is much enthusiasm for them. On these figures there is something in carlton43's mantra that the Conservatives are not doing as badly and Labour not doing as well as might be expected in the circumstances of the time.

[jamesdoyle]

GWBWI:

LDm: +212
Lab: +27
Grn: -27
Con: -220

[batman]

Very good results for both LDs & Labour (in W Auckland). These results are absolutely dire for the Conservatives. The LD win in Bisley is pretty remarkable. This is Michael Gove country & even by Surrey standards it's a very safe seat normally, which is saying a lot.

[matureleft]

Apr 15, 2022 8:05:55 GMT tonyhill said:

So we go into the local elections with accumulated totals of changes in vote in comparable contests in by-elections since the beginning of September 2021 of:

Conservative: -322.6%
Labour: - 219.4%
LibDem: +590.2%
Green: +268.8%

OK, I know, different contest patterns, comparing different years of previous elections, turnout, and so on.I don't expect May to be a LibDem/Green triumph, but on the other hand the Labour figure, although it has improved a bit in recent weeks, doesn't suggest that there is much enthusiasm for them. On these figures there is something in carlton43's mantra that the Conservatives are not doing as badly and Labour not doing as well as might be expected in the circumstances of the time.

Setting aside your stats (as you effectively do yourself!) the conclusion is broadly fair. The period up to Election Day could change that, and I sense it will in part. But I’d expect some spotty results with scope (with appropriate expectation management) for most to claim at least some qualified success. There’s a bit of 2019’s realignment to play out that should cushion the Tories in places (but hurt them in a few). Labour organisation will be critical - there’s no natural tidal surge and fairly diffident and disillusioned voters will need persuasion to vote. And there are signs that party membership turnover may have reduced overall capacity on that, but unevenly. 

[andrewp]

Apart from the Maldon curveball, I’d say the other 3 results last night werent a million miles from expected, although the LDs did better in Surrey Heath than expected.

Obviously Twitter thinks that Michael Gove is a dead cert to lose at the next election. And if the Tories lose control of Surrey Heath, they are surely going to lose everywhere, as they havent lost control there since ( checks notes) oh 2 years ago.

And you still, every week, get people on Twitter asking who was the previous MP that caused these by elections.

[jamesdoyle]

Cumulative GWBWI for all by-elections, 2021-22

[The Bishop]

Apr 15, 2022 8:05:55 GMT tonyhill said:

So we go into the local elections with accumulated totals of changes in vote in comparable contests in by-elections since the beginning of September 2021 of:

Conservative: -322.6%
Labour: - 219.4%
LibDem: +590.2%
Green: +268.8%

OK, I know, different contest patterns, comparing different years of previous elections, turnout, and so on.I don't expect May to be a LibDem/Green triumph, but on the other hand the Labour figure, although it has improved a bit in recent weeks, doesn't suggest that there is much enthusiasm for them. On these figures there is something in carlton43's mantra that the Conservatives are not doing as badly and Labour not doing as well as might be expected in the circumstances of the time.

Last few weeks have been dreadful for the Tories, though. Its at least possible that might count for more than data from when they were still leading in the polls.

(having said that, I agree with matureleft that next month's results won't be a pro-Labour tidal wave - they may now do better than the above indicates though)

[timmullen1]

Apr 15, 2022 10:37:49 GMT The Bishop said:

Apr 15, 2022 8:05:55 GMT tonyhill said:

So we go into the local elections with accumulated totals of changes in vote in comparable contests in by-elections since the beginning of September 2021 of:

Conservative: -322.6%
Labour: - 219.4%
LibDem: +590.2%
Green: +268.8%

OK, I know, different contest patterns, comparing different years of previous elections, turnout, and so on.I don't expect May to be a LibDem/Green triumph, but on the other hand the Labour figure, although it has improved a bit in recent weeks, doesn't suggest that there is much enthusiasm for them. On these figures there is something in carlton43's mantra that the Conservatives are not doing as badly and Labour not doing as well as might be expected in the circumstances of the time.

Last few weeks have been dreadful for the Tories, though. Its at least possible that might count for more than data from when they were still leading in the polls.

(having said that, I agree with matureleft that next month's results won't be a pro-Labour tidal wave - they may now do better than the above indicates though)

There’s an analysis on The Daily Telegraph by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now suggesting the Tories will lose 810 seats, Labour gain 835, the LDs lose 13 and Plaid gain 64. I presume the article is paywalled, but I’ll post the link if people think it’s credible enough to do.

[The Bishop]

It has been mentioned already in another thread, and is - as said there - the most crudely obvious expectations management.

Roughly half that number of gains/losses would be distinctly bad for the Tories and very credible for Labour.

[tonyhill]

Unfortunately jamesdoyle's cumulative figures aren't displaying on my laptop. I have been thinking about his Index, and while I completely understand that it is not a predictive tool, I do feel that its limitation is that it is a weekly standalone statistic which really only has a retrospective relevance to that particular week (this is leaving aside questions about methodology and possible refinements thereto). If there were some way of using it to see whether there are discernable trends it might attract less adverse comment than it has been subject to.

The metric I have been experimenting with (see my post above) would also be more useful displayed as a graph over time, because that would show the point at which the Conservatives started to do more badly than Labour in local by-elections (I don't have the data with me, but at a guess it was in February). It would also be useful to have the median performance figures for each party over time because that would give a more realistic take on LibDem and Green performance given that their figures in the cumulative totals are inflated by performances such as the Surrey Heath result last night.

[gwynthegriff]

Apr 15, 2022 10:45:41 GMT timmullen1 said:

There’s an analysis on The Daily Telegraph by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now suggesting the Tories will lose 810 seats, Labour gain 835, the LDs lose 13 and Plaid gain 64. I presume the article is paywalled, but I’ll post the link if people think it’s credible enough to do.

Those figures look . . . improbable.