London has its 2001 demography in 2019

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Which Labour seats turn blue?

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Interesting people think Southgate would've voted Tory if it had its 2001 demographics. I'd have thought Feltham & Heston may have been more likely, being more Brexity and more working class. I also wonder if Edmonton may have been close in this scenario. 

Feltham & Heston's 2001 demographics

Over 60: 15.4%
Born outside UK: 29%
White: 59.8%
Black: 4.1%
Asian: 30.7%
Mixed: 2.8%
Other: 2.7%
Christian: 48.8%
Hindu: 8.5%
Muslim: 10.1%
Sikh: 12.1%

(from the UK Polling Report archive)

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Now, we have three votes for Feltham & Heston. I wonder if, on 2001 demographics, Edmonton and Hayes would have been close. Just nine years earlier, in 1992, the Tories held both by razor-thin margins.

Edmonton in 2001

Over 60: 15.9%
Born outside UK: 31.2%
White: 66.1%
Black: 18.6%
Asian: 9.7%
Mixed: 3.7%
Other: 1.9%
Christian: 60.7%
Hindu: 4%
Muslim: 14.4%

Hayes & Harlington in 2001

Over 60: 15.6%
Born outside UK: 22.9%
White: 68%
Black: 5.3%
Asian: 22.3%
Mixed: 2.7%
Other: 1.7%
Christian: 57.2%
Hindu: 6.5%
Muslim: 6.9%
Sikh: 9.6%

[jakegb]

Feb 20, 2022 8:04:07 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Interesting people think Southgate would've voted Tory if it had its 2001 demographics. I'd have thought Feltham & Heston may have been more likely, being more Brexity and more working class. I also wonder if Edmonton may have been close in this scenario. 

Feltham & Heston's 2001 demographics

Over 60: 15.4%
Born outside UK: 29%
White: 59.8%
Black: 4.1%
Asian: 30.7%
Mixed: 2.8%
Other: 2.7%
Christian: 48.8%
Hindu: 8.5%
Muslim: 10.1%
Sikh: 12.1%

(from the UK Polling Report archive)

Definitely agree. 
Enfield Southgate, like much of London, has undergone significant demographic change (in terms of ethnicity), and this occurred well before the last Tory victory in 2015.
Instead, the Tories' plight here can be explained by a predominantly middle class electorate becoming disillusioned by the consequences of Brexit.  
With Brexit on the agenda, I imagine the Tories would have lost by similar margins in 2019  on the 2001 demographics. 

And this logic can be applied to other seats - for e.g. Putney and Battersea in Wandsworth. Indeed, in 2015, both Greening and Ellison achieved very strong results for the Conservatives, in cosmopolitan seats, with young electorates; the Conservatives subsequently lost both seats by 2019 through their promotion of Brexit, rather than long-term demographic changes. 
Indeed, Battersea looked increasingly strong for the Tories (due to an abundance of young professionals moving into the area) right up to the 2017 election.