BBC 1987 election on the day poll was correct

[nodealbrexiteer]

Inspired by an old greenchristian thread '1992 exit polls were right' ,what if the bBC 1987 close of polls forecast of a Con majority of 26 had come to pass? What would the 1987-1992 parliament be like?

[johnloony]

Feb 19, 2022 20:27:14 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Inspired by an old greenchristian thread '1992 exit polls were right' ,what if the bBC 1987 close of polls forecast of a Con majority of 26 had come to pass? What would the 1987-1992 parliament be like?

A key ingredient of what went wrong in the 1987 Parliament was that the Poll Tax was introduced, and its introduction was accelerated to be faster and more immediate than had originally been intended.

The original plan was to phase it in over a 10 year period, with a safety net to protect vulnerable people. Grassroots pressure from Conservative voters persuaded the government to abolish the safety net after one year, and to introduce it all in one go. That would not have been possible if the government had had a majority of only 26. The introduction of the Poll tax would have been more gradual, and it might have been more successful or acceptable.

All of that means that the impact it had on the downfall of Mrs Thatcher might have been completely different.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Feb 19, 2022 23:49:36 GMT johnloony said:

Feb 19, 2022 20:27:14 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Inspired by an old greenchristian thread '1992 exit polls were right' ,what if the bBC 1987 close of polls forecast of a Con majority of 26 had come to pass? What would the 1987-1992 parliament be like?

A key ingredient of what went wrong in the 1987 Parliament was that the Poll Tax was introduced, and its introduction was accelerated to be faster and more immediate than had originally been intended.

The original plan was to phase it in over a 10 year period, with a safety net to protect vulnerable people. Grassroots pressure from Conservative voters persuaded the government to abolish the safety net after one year, and to introduce it all in one go. That would not have been possible if the government had had a majority of only 26. The introduction of the Poll tax would have been more gradual, and it might have been more successful or acceptable.

All of that means that the impact it had on the downfall of Mrs Thatcher might have been completely different.

Even allowing for the poll tax issue i guess the slashing of the majority would have made the Tory backbenchers restless

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The problem with the Poll Tax suggestion is that Mrs Thatcher and the leading members of the government were convinced that the Poll Tax would be popular. The change to bring it in at one fell swoop was made because they wanted the full electoral benefits from it.

There were some backbench concerns about the Poll Tax but they were managed well by sending it to an unusually large Standing Committee (in which the four potential rebels rarely combined). The Mates Amendment would have been a lot more difficult to navigate through with a small majority but it is also likely that some who backed it would not have done so if the government were in danger of losing the vote, and the government could have done standard things like promising a review which would have reduced the number of rebels.