1979 Scottish devolution referendum

[wallington]

Just one that popped into my head recently.  In the 1979 Scottish devolution referendum. Scotland voted in favour 51.62% to 48.38% for the creation of a devolved assembly.  However, as only 33% of the electorate turned out, the Labour government did'nt create a Scottish devolved assembly.  What if the government did go ahead with the Assembly?  Would a Thatcher lead government abolish it along with the GLC in the mid 1980s.  I can imagine a devolved parliament of sorts in Scotland, even with more limited powers, would have been at loggerheads with the Conservative government especially in the early 19980s.  Could it have lead to a break up of the Conservative and Unionist party? Well, not a break up as such... but a CDU/CSU style situation, with a Scottish Conservative Party wishing to rebrand itself and seem separate from a Thatcher government?  What about the SNP, the 1980s were a bit of a dark period for the party Scottish Nationalism was probably at its lowest it would be for a long time, would getting he assembly lead to a jolt in the arm for them?  Maybe, especially if in a scenario where the Assembly was abolished a few years later.  Lastly, could Scottish Independence in general have become a more likely scenario if the Assembly had been created? or maybe, a failed Scottish Assembly could have lead to the idea of independence today being a much more niche position in 2022?   Anyway, just curious what you may think, not really an area I have much knowledge of.  Would the creation of the Scottish Assembly after the referendum had any lasting affect on politics today?

[clyde1998]

Feb 19, 2022 11:22:42 GMT wallington said:

Just one that popped into my head recently.  In the 1979 Scottish devolution referendum. Scotland voted in favour 51.62% to 48.38% for the creation of a devolved assembly.  However, as only 33% of the electorate turned out, the Labour government did create a Scottish devolved assembly.  What if the government did go ahead with the Assembly?  Would a Thatcher lead government abolish it along with the GLC in the mid 1980s.  I can imagine a devolved parliament of sorts in Scotland, even with more limited powers, would have been at loggerheads with the Conservative government especially in the early 19980s.  Could it have lead to a break up of the Conservative and Unionist party? Well, not a break up as such... but a CDU/CSU style situation, with a Scottish Conservative Party wishing to rebrand itself and seem separate from a Thatcher government?  What about the SNP, the 1980s were a bit of a dark period for the party Scottish Nationalism was probably at its lowest it would be for a long time, would getting he assembly lead to a jolt in the arm for them?  Maybe, especially if in a scenario where the Assembly was abolished a few years later.  Lastly, could Scottish Independence in general have become a more likely scenario if the Assembly had been created? or maybe, a failed Scottish Assembly could have lead to the idea of independence today being a much more niche position in 2022?   Anyway, just curious what you may think, not really an area I have much knowledge of.  Would the creation of the Scottish Assembly after the referendum had any lasting affect on politics today?

I'll go into a more detailed take tomorrow, but there are a number of interesting questions: one that came up in the 1997 referendum was whether the Conservatives would even stand candidates for the devolved parliament. If they didn't stand candidates following a successful 1979 election, there's a possibility it could've completely undermined the Assembly, especially with the Conservatives at Westminster. Also worth saying the Conservatives were (probably) still the second largest party in Scotland at this time and the SNP didn't have a solid political ideology yet (outside of Scottish self-governance).

[wallington]

Feb 19, 2022 17:24:12 GMT clyde1998 said:

Feb 19, 2022 11:22:42 GMT wallington said:

Just one that popped into my head recently.  In the 1979 Scottish devolution referendum. Scotland voted in favour 51.62% to 48.38% for the creation of a devolved assembly.  However, as only 33% of the electorate turned out, the Labour government did create a Scottish devolved assembly.  What if the government did go ahead with the Assembly?  Would a Thatcher lead government abolish it along with the GLC in the mid 1980s.  I can imagine a devolved parliament of sorts in Scotland, even with more limited powers, would have been at loggerheads with the Conservative government especially in the early 19980s.  Could it have lead to a break up of the Conservative and Unionist party? Well, not a break up as such... but a CDU/CSU style situation, with a Scottish Conservative Party wishing to rebrand itself and seem separate from a Thatcher government?  What about the SNP, the 1980s were a bit of a dark period for the party Scottish Nationalism was probably at its lowest it would be for a long time, would getting he assembly lead to a jolt in the arm for them?  Maybe, especially if in a scenario where the Assembly was abolished a few years later.  Lastly, could Scottish Independence in general have become a more likely scenario if the Assembly had been created? or maybe, a failed Scottish Assembly could have lead to the idea of independence today being a much more niche position in 2022?   Anyway, just curious what you may think, not really an area I have much knowledge of.  Would the creation of the Scottish Assembly after the referendum had any lasting affect on politics today?

I'll go into a more detailed take tomorrow, but there are a number of interesting questions: one that came up in the 1997 referendum was whether the Conservatives would even stand candidates for the devolved parliament. If they didn't stand candidates following a successful 1979 election, there's a possibility it could've completely undermined the Assembly, especially with the Conservatives at Westminster. Also worth saying the Conservatives were (probably) still the second largest party in Scotland at this time and the SNP didn't have a solid political ideology yet (outside of Scottish self-governance).

as it's an alt-history take I'm happy to hear from more leftfield ideas as well. In my mind, the idea of a Scottish Assembly being formed in 1979 could have had some unexpected side effects or may have been a dud. The SNP though floundered after 1979 and were in the wilderness through the 80s.