Gordon Brown runs for Labour leader in 1994

[Deleted]

Does Blair still win?

[Toylyyev]

Feb 19, 2022 7:09:05 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Does Blair still win?

Not if political capacity would have mattered.

Wonder if someone can make out what this changes for how the UK fares in the 2007 crash?

Another one is that somehow i sense that there would have been an epic broadside for GWB.

[Deleted]

If Labour has a bruising leadership battle in 1994, the Tories may do a fair bit better in 1997 though still losing - Labour majority of about 40?

[Toylyyev]

Feb 19, 2022 7:41:40 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

If Labour has a bruising leadership battle in 1994, the Tories may do a fair bit better in 1997 though still losing - Labour majority of about 40?

I'd venture Labour 40%, Conservatives 30, Liberal Democrats 20.

With upside risk if Paddy Ashdown has a good run.


Edit: Hard to see any fallout from 1994 lingering on til 1997 in a situation where most of the Conservative undoing had already happened by Summer 1994.

[Deleted]

Feb 19, 2022 7:52:00 GMT Toylyyev said:

Feb 19, 2022 7:41:40 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

If Labour has a bruising leadership battle in 1994, the Tories may do a fair bit better in 1997 though still losing - Labour majority of about 40?

I'd venture Labour 40%, Conservatives 30, Liberal Democrats 20.

With upside risk if Paddy Ashdown has a good run.


Edit: Hard to see any fallout from 1994 lingering on til 1997 in a situation where most of the Conservative undoing had already happened by Summer 1994.

How would Brown do against Major?

[Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith]

Feb 19, 2022 7:59:26 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Feb 19, 2022 7:52:00 GMT Toylyyev said:

I'd venture Labour 40%, Conservatives 30, Liberal Democrats 20.

With upside risk if Paddy Ashdown has a good run.


Edit: Hard to see any fallout from 1994 lingering on til 1997 in a situation where most of the Conservative undoing had already happened by Summer 1994.

How would Brown do against Major?

How was Gordon Brown perceived in Southern England? 

John Prescott was preferred Tony Blair in Urban Northern England. I don't think with Gordon Brown in charge they would have done any worse in these areas.

In more Tony Blair inclined areas, maybe slightly worse? 

[Deleted]

Does Brown stay PM until 2010 or is he succeeded by David Miliband or someone else in 2007?

[Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith]

Regarding 1994.

Gordon Brown did not run for either leader or deputy leader.

If he had run for leader would he have also run for deputy leader, and would Tony Blair have also run for Deputy leader?

I can see a Brown / Blair team gaining more seats for Labour than either a Brown / Prescott or Brown / Beckett team.

[Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith]

Feb 19, 2022 8:07:21 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Does Brown stay PM until 2010 or is he succeeded by David Miliband or someone else in 2007?

That's difficult to say. 

If Brown doesn't take the UK into Iraq there a good chance of him still being in charge in 2010 I think.

If he does take the UK into Iraq, he may be on shaky ground in 2005, win with a small majority? +, and after. However Labour doesn't have a history of throwing out its leaders so it would be dependent on him quitting as PM.

I can't decide whether he would voluntarily step down or not.

As for his successor, we don't know who would have been in his cabinet and in what positions. Maybe Blair would have succeeded him or someone who didn't emerge as a successor under Blair and then Brown. 

[The Bishop]

Blair would still have won, that was in the end maybe the major reason why Brown didn't stand. And at that time he wanted to be Chancellor at least as much as PM - the obsession with getting the latter job by hook or by crook only came later.