Techne UK

[batman]

Are they unique in this untrustworthiness though? Quite a few pollsters have Reform at improbably high levels. The question is where these votes go - in some cases the answer will be Nowhere, but those that do vote are bound to go in a variety of directions. Bearing in mind Reform's currently strongly anti-Tory stance it won't necessarily be to the Tories.

[The Bishop]

A plurality will still likely go Tory in the absence of a Reform candidate, but no it might well not be as emphatic as many have been presuming.

Btw they are maintaining that they will stand in most seats come the next GE, and money at least is unlikely to be an object there. And there is surely next to no chance of them doing a 2019-style deal with the Tories this time, even though some continue to speculate on this.

[batman]

Latest from Techne : Lab 46 C 25 LD 10 RefUK 7 Green 6 SNP 3

[andrewp]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 46% (=)
CON: 26% (+1)
LDM: 10% (=)
GRN: 6% (=)
RFM: 6% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @techneuk, 13-14 Sep.
Changes w/ 6-7 Sep.

[stodge]

The first Techne poll of 2023 was 46-25-9 so the remarkable thing is not how much the polls have changed but how little with everything that has happened.

[andrewp]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 45% (-1)
CON: 26% (=)
LDM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 7% (+1)
RFM: 5% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @techneuk, 20-21 Sep.
Changes w/ 13-14 Sep.

[andrewp]

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 45% (-)
CON: 27% (+1)
LDEM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 6% (-1)
REF: 6% (+1)

via @techneuk, 27 - 28 Sep

[The Bishop]

More up to date than the ComRes (or whatever it is called now) poll.

[gibbon]

Not not as up to date than Omnis?

[andrewp]

Looking back, this pollster is very unbouncy

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 45% (=)
CON: 26% (-1)
LDM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 6% (=)
RFM: 6% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @techneuk, 4-5 Oct.
Changes w/ 26-27 Sep.

[andrewp]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 46% (+1)
CON: 26% (=)
LDM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 6% (=)
RFM: 6% (=)

Via @techneuk, 11-12 Oct.
Changes w/ 4-5 Oct.

[andrewp]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 45% (-1)
CON: 26% (=)
LDM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 6% (=)
RFM: 6% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @techneuk, 18-19 Oct.
Changes w/ 11-12 Oct.

[batman]

a much less bouncy pollster than most. Almost a model of stability.

[John Chanin]

Oct 20, 2023 14:48:05 GMT batman said:

a much less bouncy pollster than most. Almost a model of stability.

And therefore not to be trusted. With margins of error around + 4%, vote shares in polls should bounce around by a few percent. If they don't then some adjustment must be going on behind the scenes.

[batman]

I've already said that I don't really think they have Reform's support right, although I don't think that the Labour lead is that far off.

[manchesterman]

I think for close to a year now the polls have been "locked" in as follows:

Labour (low to mid 40s)

Conservative (mid to high 20s)

Lib Dems (low to mid 10s)

Green & Reform (bobbing between 5-9%)

Are these polling companies (or those who commission them) actually just wasting their money, time and effort?!

[michaelarden]

Oct 20, 2023 15:37:28 GMT manchesterman said:

I think for close to a year now the polls have been "locked" in as follows:

Labour (low to mid 40s)

Conservative (mid to high 20s)

Lib Dems (low to mid 10s)

Green & Reform (bobbing between 5-9%)

Are these polling companies (or those who commission them) actually just wasting their money, time and effort?!

Don't think that's quite accurate. There's a number of polls putting Labour on 47/48 and almost no polls putting the Lib Dems on 15% - perhaps one maybe two?

John Curtice on the by-election special was very interesting  pointing out that since 2019 the poll of poll average rating for the Lib Dems had never been more than the share they actually polled in 2019. That's a problem for them in that in 1997 when Labour were last consistently polling the sort of numbers they are now they were at least 5 points higher. Labour are currently polling roughly 4x the Lib Dem share. In 1997 it was no more than 2.5 to 3 times. The talk of the Lib Dems having a higher ceiling than Labour on these sort of figures is nonsensical - the Labour boats are rising on a comparatively much higher tide than 1997. Then Labour came from third in a small number of Lib Dem target seats like Hastings, Bristol West etc, but with the Lib Dems being weaker they will surely leapfrog them in more seats next time?

Unless the Lib Dems can start consistently polling 15%+ (with Labour slipping back a bit) then it is very unlikely the Lib Dems can get to 1997 levels of MPs and their stated aim of reestablishing their third party status at Westminster becomes much more difficult (without near total SNP collapse).

[manchesterman]

as merseymike would say "voter distribution"

[nodealbrexiteer]

Oct 20, 2023 20:13:19 GMT manchesterman said:

as merseymike would say "voter distribution"

[batman]

Lab 46 C 25 LD 11 RefUK 7 Green 6 (don't have a figure for the SNP) according to my wife & the Daily Express.