Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2022 0:39:30 GMT
SPELTHORNE Stanwell North Button, Jon (Labour Party) 605 Zenonos, Michael (Local Conservatives) 567 Couchman, Paul Dennis (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 69 A proper English name starting A-G and they would have held this. It is not a good result for Conservatives but looks hard fought and is at least respectable. Frankly this should have been a cinch win for any decent main opposition party after all this time and with the problems the Conservatives have caused themselves. Conservatives still utter crap at candidate selection for tight contests. See Shropshire! You're one step away from wanting to ban anyone whose parents were born abroad, anyone who's lived abroad, or any member of an ethnic minority from standing for election, aren't you? |
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,887 
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 24, 2022 1:14:59 GMT
A proper English name starting A-G and they would have held this. It is not a good result for Conservatives but looks hard fought and is at least respectable. Frankly this should have been a cinch win for any decent main opposition party after all this time and with the problems the Conservatives have caused themselves. Conservatives still utter crap at candidate selection for tight contests. See Shropshire! You're one step away from wanting to ban anyone whose parents were born abroad, anyone who's lived abroad, or any member of an ethnic minority from standing for election, aren't you? You feel I'm that far? What am I doing wrong? |
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,759
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Feb 24, 2022 1:15:38 GMT
An odd tweet since I would have regarded Robert Evans as being the number one Labour source in Spelthorne ... perhaps he's up to something. Perhaps he likes talking about himself in the third person? ITYM... Robert Evans likes talking about Robert Evans in the third person. 
|
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Feb 24, 2022 5:14:49 GMT
no. I've been there all day and know the area well enough to say that you are not correct. The Tory candidate was not poor. What was and remains poor is the Conservatives' failure to canvass the ward properly. That possibly has cost them dear although they probably did quite a bit of phone canvassing. But we know that they were working off very weak data. Possibly because the parliamentary seat is not marginal. He's right that it's a pretty decent Tory result though, especially given what you say. Pretty decent TUSC result too, come to think of it. -_- |
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,887
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 24, 2022 10:14:21 GMT
A proper English name starting A-G and they would have held this. It is not a good result for Conservatives but looks hard fought and is at least respectable. Frankly this should have been a cinch win for any decent main opposition party after all this time and with the problems the Conservatives have caused themselves. Conservatives still utter crap at candidate selection for tight contests. See Shropshire! If you read the preview, you would know that the area has a significant South Asian minority and is bang next to one of the UK's biggest ports of entry. It's effectively an extension of Hounslow and the ethnic origin of the candidate will have had no impact here. If anything, a candidate who wasn't too keen on lockdown maybe would have been a better fit, given the area's heavy reliance on Heathrow as a source of employment. Oh dear! You are entirely missing the point again. In a by-election expected to be very close everything is about winning and the extra small edge that is to be had by effective strategy. This is about practical politics and what is needed to win. On the small scale the Conservatives are hopeless at this. The demographics of the constituency and the ward don't matter to the points I made. Here the major parties are close and it is the minor inputs that will possibly win? Let us assume the parties get the 'big things right'. And my personal views on the area, on people, on immigrants are entirely irrelevant. We saw each of the majors gain vote share. The Conservatives had a LARGER such gain! But they still lost. I contend that attention to two small points were/are critical, and that both are to do with the surname. Ensure the candidate has a 'front end' surname, preferably 'A'. Ensure the candidate appears to be very English and preferably very local and known to be so. Those attributes should not matter, but they do to small minorities. Some people always tend to vote at and from the top of the list. Don't know why. Don't care. select an 'A'. And get 10-50 votes. Some like the thought of an obviously very local white man with an English name. It matters to them. Listen. It is worth 20-100 votes. A very local Andrew Alexander would have won this. |
|
|
|
Post by london(ex)tory on Feb 24, 2022 11:25:22 GMT
Some people always tend to vote at and from the top of the list. Don't know why. Don't care. select an 'A'. And get 10-50 votes. I know all about the curse of the alphabet - in 2018 my (then) two running mates got in but I missed out by 10 votes. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Feb 24, 2022 12:10:34 GMT
no. I've been there all day and know the area well enough to say that you are not correct. The Tory candidate was not poor. What was and remains poor is the Conservatives' failure to canvass the ward properly. That possibly has cost them dear although they probably did quite a bit of phone canvassing. But we know that they were working off very weak data. Possibly because the parliamentary seat is not marginal. He's right that it's a pretty decent Tory result though, especially given what you say. Pretty decent TUSC result too, come to think of it. -_- If I had been told beforehand that TUSC would get 69 votes, I would have feared the worst. Given that and the disappearance of a previous non-negligible UKIP support, it is maybe actually a slightly better Labour result than it appears on paper. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 24, 2022 12:35:57 GMT
Spelthorne is also a place where there are a lot of Conservative activists and not all that many Labour ones, who are deployable to fight a byelection. The Conservatives fought a very intensive campaign.
|
|
|
|
Post by froome on Feb 24, 2022 13:16:42 GMT
He's right that it's a pretty decent Tory result though, especially given what you say. Pretty decent TUSC result too, come to think of it. -_- If I had been told beforehand that TUSC would get 69 votes, I would have feared the worst. Given that and the disappearance of a previous non-negligible UKIP support, it is maybe actually a slightly better Labour result than it appears on paper. TUSC's votes will have mostly come from those who vote anything except Labour or Conservative, of which there are many in every ward. Some of those will have voted UKIP last time. |
|
|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on Feb 24, 2022 13:27:10 GMT
He's right that it's a pretty decent Tory result though, especially given what you say. Pretty decent TUSC result too, come to think of it. -_- If I had been told beforehand that TUSC would get 69 votes, I would have feared the worst. Given that and the disappearance of a previous non-negligible UKIP support, it is maybe actually a slightly better Labour result than it appears on paper. Surely it was a case of TUSC splitting the anti-Labour vote? |
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Feb 24, 2022 13:30:34 GMT
If you read the preview, you would know that the area has a significant South Asian minority and is bang next to one of the UK's biggest ports of entry. It's effectively an extension of Hounslow and the ethnic origin of the candidate will have had no impact here. If anything, a candidate who wasn't too keen on lockdown maybe would have been a better fit, given the area's heavy reliance on Heathrow as a source of employment. Oh dear! You are entirely missing the point again. In a by-election expected to be very close everything is about winning and the extra small edge that is to be had by effective strategy. This is about practical politics and what is needed to win. On the small scale the Conservatives are hopeless at this. The demographics of the constituency and the ward don't matter to the points I made. Here the major parties are close and it is the minor inputs that will possibly win? Let us assume the parties get the 'big things right'. And my personal views on the area, on people, on immigrants are entirely irrelevant. We saw each of the majors gain vote share. The Conservatives had a LARGER such gain! But they still lost. I contend that attention to two small points were/are critical, and that both are to do with the surname. Ensure the candidate has a 'front end' surname, preferably 'A'. Ensure the candidate appears to be very English and preferably very local and known to be so. Those attributes should not matter, but they do to small minorities. Some people always tend to vote at and from the top of the list. Don't know why. Don't care. select an 'A'. And get 10-50 votes. Some like the thought of an obviously very local white man with an English name. It matters to them. Listen. It is worth 20-100 votes. A very local Andrew Alexander would have won this. How many extra votes did they get from using the word “Local” in their description? |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Feb 24, 2022 17:18:05 GMT
If I had been told beforehand that TUSC would get 69 votes, I would have feared the worst. Given that and the disappearance of a previous non-negligible UKIP support, it is maybe actually a slightly better Labour result than it appears on paper. Surely it was a case of TUSC splitting the anti-Labour vote? no not at all. If TUSC had not stood hardly any of their supporters would have voted Conservative but quite a lot would have voted Labour. Quite a few might have abstained too. The TUSC candidate as I understand it is local which probably boosted his vote: the successful Labour candidate lives in Shepperton which is quite a few miles away. |
|
|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on Feb 24, 2022 19:13:43 GMT
Surely it was a case of TUSC splitting the anti-Labour vote? no not at all. If TUSC had not stood hardly any of their supporters would have voted Conservative but quite a lot would have voted Labour. Quite a few might have abstained too. The TUSC candidate as I understand it is local which probably boosted his vote: the successful Labour candidate lives in Shepperton which is quite a few miles away. It was a joke. |
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Feb 24, 2022 20:47:48 GMT
If you read the preview, you would know that the area has a significant South Asian minority and is bang next to one of the UK's biggest ports of entry. It's effectively an extension of Hounslow and the ethnic origin of the candidate will have had no impact here. If anything, a candidate who wasn't too keen on lockdown maybe would have been a better fit, given the area's heavy reliance on Heathrow as a source of employment. Oh dear! You are entirely missing the point again. In a by-election expected to be very close everything is about winning and the extra small edge that is to be had by effective strategy. This is about practical politics and what is needed to win. On the small scale the Conservatives are hopeless at this. The demographics of the constituency and the ward don't matter to the points I made. Here the major parties are close and it is the minor inputs that will possibly win? Let us assume the parties get the 'big things right'. And my personal views on the area, on people, on immigrants are entirely irrelevant. We saw each of the majors gain vote share. The Conservatives had a LARGER such gain! But they still lost. I contend that attention to two small points were/are critical, and that both are to do with the surname. Ensure the candidate has a 'front end' surname, preferably 'A'. Ensure the candidate appears to be very English and preferably very local and known to be so. Those attributes should not matter, but they do to small minorities. Some people always tend to vote at and from the top of the list. Don't know why. Don't care. select an 'A'. And get 10-50 votes. Some like the thought of an obviously very local white man with an English name. It matters to them. Listen. It is worth 20-100 votes. A very local Andrew Alexander would have won this. The alphabet game may have had some affect, agreed, but an English name is a disincentive in areas with large Asian minorities. It has been shown, time and time again, that Brits of South Asian origin generally prefer South Asians to represent them. Where there is not a South Asian on the ballot, or there are multiple, they will vote according to their party political believes. Those of a nativist ideological background like yourselves would, I estimate, prefer voting for a party with candidates with English names, but the UKIP vote in this area mostly transferred to the Tories or stayed at home because of disillusionment with the candidate offer/current government's actions. That is mostly why the seat has been lost by the Conservatives. |
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,887
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 24, 2022 22:21:41 GMT
Oh dear! You are entirely missing the point again. In a by-election expected to be very close everything is about winning and the extra small edge that is to be had by effective strategy. This is about practical politics and what is needed to win. On the small scale the Conservatives are hopeless at this. The demographics of the constituency and the ward don't matter to the points I made. Here the major parties are close and it is the minor inputs that will possibly win? Let us assume the parties get the 'big things right'. And my personal views on the area, on people, on immigrants are entirely irrelevant. We saw each of the majors gain vote share. The Conservatives had a LARGER such gain! But they still lost. I contend that attention to two small points were/are critical, and that both are to do with the surname. Ensure the candidate has a 'front end' surname, preferably 'A'. Ensure the candidate appears to be very English and preferably very local and known to be so. Those attributes should not matter, but they do to small minorities. Some people always tend to vote at and from the top of the list. Don't know why. Don't care. select an 'A'. And get 10-50 votes. Some like the thought of an obviously very local white man with an English name. It matters to them. Listen. It is worth 20-100 votes. A very local Andrew Alexander would have won this. The alphabet game may have had some affect, agreed, but an English name is a disincentive in areas with large Asian minorities. It has been shown, time and time again, that Brits of South Asian origin generally prefer South Asians to represent them. Where there is not a South Asian on the ballot, or there are multiple, they will vote according to their party political believes. Those of a nativist ideological background like yourselves would, I estimate, prefer voting for a party with candidates with English names, but the UKIP vote in this area mostly transferred to the Tories or stayed at home because of disillusionment with the candidate offer/current government's actions. That is mostly why the seat has been lost by the Conservatives. Why make this personal to me? It will never effect my voting, that is if I vote in local elections at all. I am commenting within the context of this Forum as a contributor to this Forum. When I come to terms with my party again I shall for for that party's candidate whoever it is and whatever qualities they have or don't have, and whatever personal name they bear. My comments are about a known minority of electors and their predilections, which will determine whether they turn out at all and f they do whether the name of the Conservative candidate will put off that vote for any reason, however odd, eccentric, obscurantist, unfortunate, bigoted, or plain stupid those reasons may be. My own views on that subject are quite irrelevant to the matter and none of you know what they are. You might think that you do but you really don't. And it is no business of any of you. I expressed similar view about Shropshire by-election for the same reasons. This is not an advocated policy by me to that party generally, but an observation that in a known very tight and difficult situation, it is very foolish not to play to the known proclivities of some of the electorate. Choose very local with bottom in that patch with a simple obvious English name. And if possible an initial letter near to 'A'. And that is my last word on the subject. The Conservatives are deaf to reason and poor campaigners most of the time and I am getting too much flak from the 'usual suspects' and a new punk one! |
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Feb 24, 2022 22:45:08 GMT
The alphabet game may have had some affect, agreed, but an English name is a disincentive in areas with large Asian minorities. It has been shown, time and time again, that Brits of South Asian origin generally prefer South Asians to represent them. Where there is not a South Asian on the ballot, or there are multiple, they will vote according to their party political believes. Those of a nativist ideological background like yourselves would, I estimate, prefer voting for a party with candidates with English names, but the UKIP vote in this area mostly transferred to the Tories or stayed at home because of disillusionment with the candidate offer/current government's actions. That is mostly why the seat has been lost by the Conservatives. Why make this personal to me? It will never effect my voting, that is if I vote in local elections at all. I am commenting within the context of this Forum as a contributor to this Forum. When I come to terms with my party again I shall for for that party's candidate whoever it is and whatever qualities they have or don't have, and whatever personal name they bear. My comments are about a known minority of electors and their predilections, which will determine whether they turn out at all and f they do whether the name of the Conservative candidate will put off that vote for any reason, however odd, eccentric, obscurantist, unfortunate, bigoted, or plain stupid those reasons may be. My own views on that subject are quite irrelevant to the matter and none of you know what they are. You might think that you do but you really don't. And it is no business of any of you. I expressed similar view about Shropshire by-election for the same reasons. This is not an advocated policy by me to that party generally, but an observation that in a known very tight and difficult situation, it is very foolish not to play to the known proclivities of some of the electorate. Choose very local with bottom in that patch with a simple obvious English name. And if possible an initial letter near to 'A'. And that is my last word on the subject. The Conservatives are deaf to reason and poor campaigners most of the time and I am getting too much flak from the 'usual suspects' and a new punk one! A punk? Lmao. It's not my fight to help the Conservative Party, in rural Shropshire your remarks may be useful. There's no disputing a local candidate's popularity and the alphabet game is also valuable, but the popularity of a candidate of English ethnic origin depends heavily on the ethnic makeup of the ward. I accept you believe differently; you are entitled to do so, but I do not see why robust debate on the matter is an issue. That is what this forum is here for, and I apologise if you see it as barracking or harassment from other members of the forum for your opinions. |
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,887
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 24, 2022 22:51:21 GMT
Why make this personal to me? It will never effect my voting, that is if I vote in local elections at all. I am commenting within the context of this Forum as a contributor to this Forum. When I come to terms with my party again I shall for for that party's candidate whoever it is and whatever qualities they have or don't have, and whatever personal name they bear. My comments are about a known minority of electors and their predilections, which will determine whether they turn out at all and f they do whether the name of the Conservative candidate will put off that vote for any reason, however odd, eccentric, obscurantist, unfortunate, bigoted, or plain stupid those reasons may be. My own views on that subject are quite irrelevant to the matter and none of you know what they are. You might think that you do but you really don't. And it is no business of any of you. I expressed similar view about Shropshire by-election for the same reasons. This is not an advocated policy by me to that party generally, but an observation that in a known very tight and difficult situation, it is very foolish not to play to the known proclivities of some of the electorate. Choose very local with bottom in that patch with a simple obvious English name. And if possible an initial letter near to 'A'. And that is my last word on the subject. The Conservatives are deaf to reason and poor campaigners most of the time and I am getting too much flak from the 'usual suspects' and a new punk one! A punk? Lmao. It's not my fight to help the Conservative Party, in rural Shropshire your remarks may be useful. There's no disputing a local candidate's popularity and the alphabet game is also valuable, but the popularity of a candidate of English ethnic origin depends heavily on the ethnic makeup of the ward. I accept you believe differently; you are entitled to do so, but I do not see why robust debate on the matter is an issue. That is what this forum is here for, and I apologise if you see it as barracking or harassment from other members of the forum for your opinions. Thank you and accepted in good faith. It is two things. The now near constant accusations of racism to me which I believe to be orchestrated by a group of trolls. And the frequent gross misrepresentation of what I have actually said. And clash |
|
|
|
Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Feb 24, 2022 22:55:50 GMT
A punk? Lmao. It's not my fight to help the Conservative Party, in rural Shropshire your remarks may be useful. There's no disputing a local candidate's popularity and the alphabet game is also valuable, but the popularity of a candidate of English ethnic origin depends heavily on the ethnic makeup of the ward. I accept you believe differently; you are entitled to do so, but I do not see why robust debate on the matter is an issue. That is what this forum is here for, and I apologise if you see it as barracking or harassment from other members of the forum for your opinions. Thank you and accepted in good faith. It is two things. The now near constant accusations of racism to me which I believe to be orchestrated by a group of trolls. And the frequent gross misrepresentation of what I have actually said. And clash I don't think that you've said anything racist that I've witnessed. And I view unsupported accusations of racism with extreme suspicion. I do think you are sometimes deliberately misinterpreted, but that's modern British politics for you. There's no social responsibility to show decorum any more for a lot of people. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Feb 25, 2022 10:36:56 GMT
no not at all. If TUSC had not stood hardly any of their supporters would have voted Conservative but quite a lot would have voted Labour. Quite a few might have abstained too. The TUSC candidate as I understand it is local which probably boosted his vote: the successful Labour candidate lives in Shepperton which is quite a few miles away. It was a joke. Sometimes it is hard to tell  |
|
|
|
Post by listener on Feb 25, 2022 13:36:54 GMT
My understanding is that the Spelthorne Liberal Democrats and Green Party councillors sit as the Liberal Democrat Green Group.
|
|
