Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 17, 2022 11:41:31 GMT
EASTLEIGH DC; Eastleigh Central (Lib Dem Resigned)
Candidates:
CONSTABLE, Josh (Labour)
DEDHIA, Bhavin (Liberal Democrat)
FAWCETT, Clare Lorraine (Reform UK)
PAYNE, Simon (Conservative)
STAPLETON, Jack (Green)
2021: LD 943; Lab 735; Con 641; Hampshire Ind 146; RefUK 88
2019: LD 1111; Lab 400;UKIP 318; Con 267; Grn 175
2018: LD 1163, 1090, 976; Lab 649, 640, 463; Con 469, 394, 360; UKIP 306; Grn 295
The vacancy is for the 2019-2023 term. Josh Constable has stood here for Labour in the last 3 elections (he was the top Labour candidate in 2018), he also stood in Eastleigh North division last May. Simon Payne stood for the Conservatives in Eastleigh Central prior to the boundary changes (in 2016 and 2017 by-election).
Current Council: LD 31; Ind 5; Con 2; 1 vacancy
SOMERSET WEST & TAUNTON DC; Alcombe (Ind disqualified)
Candidates:
COLEMAN, Craig James (Conservative)
HAWKINS, Nicole Susanne (Liberal Democrat)
LILLIS, Richard Patrick (Independent)
ROOS, Shanti (Labour)
2019: Ind 236; LD 204; Con 119; Lab 68
Nicole Hawkins was the unsuccessful Lib Dem in 2019.
Current Council: LD 31; Ind 12; Con 10; Lab 3; Grn 2; 1 vacancy
WEALDEN DC; Hailsham South (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BLAKE-COGGINS, Anne Barbara (Liberal Democrat)
BRYANT, Chris (Conservative)
GANDER, Stephen Richard (Social Democratic Party)
May 21by: Con 411; LD 332; Ind 90; Grn 77
2019: Con 319; LD 197; Lab 169
Anne Blake-Coggins was the unsuccessful Lib Dem in the last two elections here.
Current Council: Con 29; LD 5; Ind Democrat 4; Grn 3; Ind Grp 3; 1 vacancy
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Post by evergreenadam on Jan 17, 2022 16:47:01 GMT
This set will be interesting to see how the Lib Dens are doing in the south.
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Post by froome on Jan 17, 2022 18:26:21 GMT
They will be interesting for a variety of reasons.
Will Labour fancy their chances of making a breakthrough in Eastleigh? They weren't that far behind in this ward earlier this year, a distinct improvement from 2019.
Do we know if the disqualified Independent is backing the new Independent in Alcombe?
Rather odd to see a Social Democratic Party candidate in Wealden, but no Labour or Green. Will it make a difference? I doubt it, but the Lib Dems ought to win that one with ease.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
Member is Online
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Post by Khunanup on Jan 17, 2022 20:34:47 GMT
They will be interesting for a variety of reasons. Will Labour fancy their chances of making a breakthrough in Eastleigh? They weren't that far behind in this ward earlier this year, a distinct improvement from 2019. Do we know if the disqualified Independent is backing the new Independent in Alcombe? Rather odd to see a Social Democratic Party candidate in Wealden, but no Labour or Green. Will it make a difference? I doubt it, but the Lib Dems ought to win that one with ease. Two problems for Labour in Eastleigh Central. The Greens are standing and that will hurt them here more than any other party and the Tory vote will likely collapse with everything that's going on and little of that will go Labour. And Labour have been close but no cigar here (and predecessor seats) many, many times since they got wiped off the council but have never followed up. It's obviously not impossible but something would have to go very wrong for the Lib Dems to lose this one. I concur that Hailsham should be a turkey shoot for the Lib Dems (though Hailsham's a more Johnsonian demographic place compared to most of Wealden so I wouldn't expect a catastrophic result for the Tories compared to an Uckfield/Crowborough by-election at the moment for example). |
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Post by andrewp on Jan 17, 2022 20:44:36 GMT
They will be interesting for a variety of reasons. Will Labour fancy their chances of making a breakthrough in Eastleigh? They weren't that far behind in this ward earlier this year, a distinct improvement from 2019. Do we know if the disqualified Independent is backing the new Independent in Alcombe? Rather odd to see a Social Democratic Party candidate in Wealden, but no Labour or Green. Will it make a difference? I doubt it, but the Lib Dems ought to win that one with ease. Re Alcombe, I doubt the Independents are linked. The Independent candidate this time is a former Tory councillor for a different ward, and also stood in the Old Cleeve by election last year and helped the Lib Dem’s hold that one by 4 votes. Note, The Labour candidate in Alcombe has an address 15 miles away, which is quite a way for a local by election. Alcombe is Defitnely one to file under ‘ would be Labour if it were in a different part of the country.’ |
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 17, 2022 21:13:56 GMT
They will be interesting for a variety of reasons. Will Labour fancy their chances of making a breakthrough in Eastleigh? They weren't that far behind in this ward earlier this year, a distinct improvement from 2019. Do we know if the disqualified Independent is backing the new Independent in Alcombe? Rather odd to see a Social Democratic Party candidate in Wealden, but no Labour or Green. Will it make a difference? I doubt it, but the Lib Dems ought to win that one with ease. Two problems for Labour in Eastleigh Central. The Greens are standing and that will hurt them here more than any other party and the Tory vote will likely collapse with everything that's going on and little of that will go Labour. And Labour have been close but no cigar here (and predecessor seats) many, many times since they got wiped off the council but have never followed up. It's obviously not impossible but something would have to go very wrong for the Lib Dems to lose this one. I concur that Hailsham should be a turkey shoot for the Lib Dems (though Hailsham's a more Johnsonian demographic place compared to most of Wealden so I wouldn't expect a catastrophic result for the Tories compared to an Uckfield/Crowborough by-election at the moment for example). Where is Hailsham South ward relative to Hailsham Market division (won big by the Lib Dems on the same day as the South by-election)? |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 17, 2022 21:34:27 GMT
Two problems for Labour in Eastleigh Central. The Greens are standing and that will hurt them here more than any other party and the Tory vote will likely collapse with everything that's going on and little of that will go Labour. And Labour have been close but no cigar here (and predecessor seats) many, many times since they got wiped off the council but have never followed up. It's obviously not impossible but something would have to go very wrong for the Lib Dems to lose this one. I concur that Hailsham should be a turkey shoot for the Lib Dems (though Hailsham's a more Johnsonian demographic place compared to most of Wealden so I wouldn't expect a catastrophic result for the Tories compared to an Uckfield/Crowborough by-election at the moment for example). Where is Hailsham South ward relative to Hailsham Market division (won big by the Lib Dems on the same day as the South by-election)? It's in Hailsham New Town division which the Tories won in May |
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Post by evergreenadam on Jan 17, 2022 21:36:59 GMT
Two problems for Labour in Eastleigh Central. The Greens are standing and that will hurt them here more than any other party and the Tory vote will likely collapse with everything that's going on and little of that will go Labour. And Labour have been close but no cigar here (and predecessor seats) many, many times since they got wiped off the council but have never followed up. It's obviously not impossible but something would have to go very wrong for the Lib Dems to lose this one. I concur that Hailsham should be a turkey shoot for the Lib Dems (though Hailsham's a more Johnsonian demographic place compared to most of Wealden so I wouldn't expect a catastrophic result for the Tories compared to an Uckfield/Crowborough by-election at the moment for example). Where is Hailsham South ward relative to Hailsham Market division (won big by the Lib Dems on the same day as the South by-election)? This website is one of my favourites! You can overlap different boundaries. www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/ |
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 17, 2022 22:21:08 GMT
Where is Hailsham South ward relative to Hailsham Market division (won big by the Lib Dems on the same day as the South by-election)? This website is one of my favourites! You can overlap different boundaries. www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/Yes I know, but I was on my phone which has a small screen and was too lazy to look! |
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Post by lackeroftalent on Jan 23, 2022 13:49:14 GMT
Regarding Hailsham South. There was a by-election on 2 December 2021 for the town council in the ward with Anne Blake-Coggins as the LDm candidate.
She lost Con 221, Lib Dem 197. Surely this time.
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Post by bridgyoldboy on Feb 5, 2022 19:20:17 GMT
They will be interesting for a variety of reasons. Will Labour fancy their chances of making a breakthrough in Eastleigh? They weren't that far behind in this ward earlier this year, a distinct improvement from 2019. Do we know if the disqualified Independent is backing the new Independent in Alcombe? Rather odd to see a Social Democratic Party candidate in Wealden, but no Labour or Green. Will it make a difference? I doubt it, but the Lib Dems ought to win that one with ease. Re Alcombe, I doubt the Independents are linked. The Independent candidate this time is a former Tory councillor for a different ward, and also stood in the Old Cleeve by election last year and helped the Lib Dem’s hold that one by 4 votes. Note, The Labour candidate in Alcombe has an address 15 miles away, which is quite a way for a local by election. Alcombe is Defitnely one to file under ‘ would be Labour if it were in a different part of the country.’ |
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Post by bridgyoldboy on Feb 5, 2022 19:24:57 GMT
Re Alcombe, I doubt the Independents are linked. The Independent candidate this time is a former Tory councillor for a different ward, and also stood in the Old Cleeve by election last year and helped the Lib Dem’s hold that one by 4 votes. Note, The Labour candidate in Alcombe has an address 15 miles away, which is quite a way for a local by election. Alcombe is Defitnely one to file under ‘ would be Labour if it were in a different part of the country.’ The Alcombe one is odd standing for a Council with just over a year to run really in its fag end. The real battle will be in May when the new unitary Council is elected. Shanti Roos is an able Labour activist but clearly just flying the flag until the important election |
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Post by southernliberal on Feb 6, 2022 17:52:57 GMT
Seems like if things go there way in the three respective contests, Lib Dems have a chance to sweep the whole board this Thursday
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Post by andrewp on Feb 6, 2022 18:06:55 GMT
Seems like if things go there way in the three respective contests, Lib Dems have a chance to sweep the whole board this Thursday I would think that’s pretty likely myself. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 6, 2022 18:07:51 GMT
The resigning councillor in Eastleigh has made a stinging denunciation of the Liberal Democrats and endorsed the Labour candidate, which might shake things up. Labour last won a seat on the council in 2007. |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,813
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Post by iang on Feb 6, 2022 18:47:59 GMT
Isn't it likely to be a bit late? Postal votes will have already happened, and Labour might be struggling getting a leaflet out with the story on between now and Thursday (even if they were primed, it presumably wouldn't start going out until after the announcement has been made). Not everyone reads the local press
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Post by greenchristian on Feb 6, 2022 19:50:34 GMT
Isn't it likely to be a bit late? Postal votes will have already happened, and Labour might be struggling getting a leaflet out with the story on between now and Thursday (even if they were primed, it presumably wouldn't start going out until after the announcement has been made). Not everyone reads the local press Indeed. In a recent doorknocking session in Coventry I came across two different people who didn't know that there was a bin strike on (they knew the bins hadn't been collected, but not why). |
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Post by shadsy on Feb 7, 2022 11:37:50 GMT
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Post by listener on Feb 8, 2022 10:01:42 GMT
I know that regular readers do not pay much attention to parish council elections, but I draw attention to Thursday's by-election for an Independent seat in Bolsover (Clowne West), simply because (as far as I am aware) it is the first truly red wall seat to be contested since party-gate flared up - it is a straight fight between Lab and Con. The other parish seat in Clowne West is held by a Conservative. I have posted full chapter and verse in the Town and Community Council by-elections thread.
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Post by phil156 on Feb 8, 2022 18:14:39 GMT
All 3 by-elections count on Thursday night too
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