Post by batman on Dec 5, 2021 13:25:17 GMT
Reading is a large town within easy reach of London to its east, with a fairly working-class social composition for the most part but some wards with notable prosperity. It is traditionally known for biscuit manufacture, brewing (both heavily reduced if even in existence at all) and its status as a vitally important railway junction with a fair number of railway workers. It belongs to the ceremonial county of Berkshire as it always has, although some of its wards north of the River Thames were historically in Oxfordshire many years ago. It can reasonably claim to be the largest town in Britain not yet to have been accorded city status, as its urban area, including some elements in other neighbouring boroughs, is something in the close region of 200,000. The borough itself however has a rather lower population than that and was just small enough for many years to have just one compact urban constituency. In 1974 this permanently came to an end and two seats were created, Reading South containing a large element outside the borough boundary but Reading North being entirely contained within. Not surprisingly, of these two seats North was much the more marginal. Then in 1983 a recognisable version of the current arrangement came into being, as Reading East and Reading West seats were created instead. Both contained elements outside the borough boundary, but both were still designated as Borough Constituencies, that is to say constituencies in which the great majority of electors are within urban areas. This western seat however is a little surprising in that designation, as it contains some entirely separate small towns and a small number of genuinely rural villages. For a number of years, this despite being the less urban was the stronger of the two seats for Labour, but the situation is now reversed, as East is not only more built-up (increasingly a factor which tends to militate against the Conservatives somewhat) but also has a significantly larger student voting population (however, it also contains the only Reading borough wards which regularly vote Conservative). This West seat has however been mostly marginal since it was gained in 1997 by Labour's Martin Salter, who was to develop a strong personal following in the constituency, with the most obvious exception of 2001, when Salter managed an unusually large majority for this area, making the seat at least temporarily safe. In 2010, when Salter retired rather early and Alok Sharma gained the seat for the Conservatives, and again in 2015 the Conservative majority was rather more than that of a genuine marginal, but it has declined a little since then, and marginal would now be a fair description for the seat. On an uniform national swing (yes, of course such things no longer exist), a Conservative national lead of 3% would be sufficient for Labour to gain this seat, if these boundaries were to remain in force. This is not altogether surprising, as this is a very socially mixed seat as one would expect of a constituency stretching from the fringes of Reading town centre to the much more rustic Tidmarsh, for example.
The seat can be conveniently divided into the Reading borough part to the east and the section further to the west which lies within the West Berkshire unitary authority area, and I take the latter first. This part of the constituency is partly outer-suburban and partly consists of territory entirely separated by countryside from Reading; one ward, Theale, is not quite sure which of these categories it belongs to, as it is not separated by much in the way of genuine countryside, but rather by the M4 motorway. Mostly, the outer suburban wards, which all currently mention Tilehurst in their names, are united with the separated ones by one characteristic : political support for the Conservative Party. Tilehurst is an outer suburb of Reading which straddles the borough boundary. The element of it which is in West Berkshire is a little more heavily owner-occupied and middle-class than the Reading borough section of it, though not extravagantly so. Labour is not negligible here, but is well behind the Tories. Further out, apart from Theale the three principal towns or villages are Tidmarsh, Pangbourne and Purley-on-Thames, which is slightly closer in towards Reading than the other two. All these three vote quite heavily Conservative. Pangbourne is even weaker territory for Labour than the other two; it is a fine small town on the Thames with some very good houses overlooking the river, and its popularity and expensiveness as a place to buy property is enhanced by the railway station, on the line which leads from Oxford to London Paddington. Purley is relatively functional but very pleasant and prosperous, Tidmarsh is almost twee and has some very fine old houses and the odd pub. There are also some entirely rural villages in between these larger villages and towns, perhaps most noteworthily Sulham with its pretty old church. The last of the West Berkshire wards is Theale. Theale is rather different in character from the other small towns and outer suburbs in this part of the constituency. It has a pleasant but relatively humdrum main street with small 19th-century cottages which are not particularly high on the posh scale, and also a fair-sized council estate element in its outskirts as well as some more luxurious owner-occupied homes. It alone of this part of the constituency does not normally elect Conservative councillors, being more apt to elect the Liberal Democrats who have long had local strength in many other parts of West Berkshire. However, it is a fair bet that many of its local Lib Dem voters vote tactically for either the Conservatives or Labour in general elections nowadays, and probably have done for well over 20 years, according to preference. Normally this would mean that the Conservatives retain a definite lead over Labour in the small town and its immediate surrounds, but in outstanding years Labour can just about rise to become competitive. Salter moved to Theale after his election to Parliament in 1997, and is estimated to have fought the Tories approximately to a draw in the town in the 2001 election; but usually the Tories can rely on at least some sort of lead here, however modest it might often be. Overall, the West Berkshire part of the constituency would be heavily more favourable to the Conservatives than Labour, even in their very poor year locally of 2001, and there is enough of this territory to be at least a considerable stumbling block for Labour in their attempts to win the constituency.
The Reading borough wards generally look very different, and their voting behaviour is also very different, with the main exception of Tilehurst ward. Tilehurst is one of the borough of Reading's wards which is furthest away from the town centre, and it is mostly owner-occupied, still mostly white, and relatively prosperous, although it does have a significant council estate element as many Reading wards do. It is the only Reading borough ward in the constituency which does not regularly elect Labour councillors, almost invariably preferring the Liberal Democrats in an echo of that party's strength just a short distance down the A4. Again, as with Theale, it is inevitable that many local Lib Dem voters will cast their ballots tactically in a general election. As far as can be told, the ward most likely divides its favours in general elections depending on the national picture, though the Tories might well fancy themselves to outpoll Labour a bit more often than vice versa. It does have a more middle-class social composition than the other Reading borough wards currently included in the constituency, and also would have far fewer students than further into the town. The other wards, however, all tend to vote Labour, although by rather varying amounts. Closest in to the town centre, Battle and Minster wards are mostly terraced areas with a large British Asian population. Battle is a completely safe Labour ward, as safe for Labour as the Tories are in any of their outlying wards; Minster has a more coherent Tory vote but is fairly comfortably Labour too. Between Battle and Tilehurst wards lies Norcot, a more outer-city council estate ward. This is also a Labour stronghold, politically pretty much in between Battle and Minster. To its south, appropriately, lies Southcote ward, which is distinctly similar to its neighbour although a little less compact, and it too is a Labour stronghold. In the north-west of the town is Kentwood. This is very much a dichotomy between council estates and owner-occupied interwar semis. It tends to vote Labour, but sometimes not by very much; Labour won by only a few handfuls of votes in the most recent local elections at the time of writing. The constituency is completed by Whitley ward, which perhaps is the most council-estate-dominated ward in the town, and the borough's most southerly ward. It forms a major contrast with the neighbouring Tory stronghold of Shinfield, over the constituency boundary into Wokingham, and has voted Labour uninterruptedly for many years. In most recent years the white working-class vote for the Conservatives has increased, but it is still a safe Labour ward nonetheless, even if somewhat less so than was once the case. It is the 6 Labour-held wards where Labour must rack up a large lead if they are to win this constituency, but in local elections Labour tends to succeed in that to a fair extent, as, although none of the wards is quite as safe as Battle (and probably none so multiethnic either), only in Kentwood do the Tories normally get all that close either. The destiny of general elections here perhaps mostly depends not on who wins the various wards, but to what extent, and on who can grab the lion's share of the tactical normally-Lib-Dem vote in Tilehurst and Theale.
It is not difficult to see why this seat is broadly marginal. Its MP Alok Sharma has served in a number of ministerial positions and is now an increasingly senior and high-profile member of the Conservative Cabinet, hosting the COP26 conference recently at the time of writing. He probably has a reasonable personal vote if not quite as impressive as that which Martin Salter enjoyed during the Blair years. However, this seat is not secure on these boundaries, or most probably any vaguely similar to it, as the Reading borough element is a fair-sized obstacle to Tory local ambitions. It is the kind of seat the loss of which would make it hard for the Tories to form a government, so therefore we can expect continuing strong future battles here in Battle ward and further out of the town.
The seat can be conveniently divided into the Reading borough part to the east and the section further to the west which lies within the West Berkshire unitary authority area, and I take the latter first. This part of the constituency is partly outer-suburban and partly consists of territory entirely separated by countryside from Reading; one ward, Theale, is not quite sure which of these categories it belongs to, as it is not separated by much in the way of genuine countryside, but rather by the M4 motorway. Mostly, the outer suburban wards, which all currently mention Tilehurst in their names, are united with the separated ones by one characteristic : political support for the Conservative Party. Tilehurst is an outer suburb of Reading which straddles the borough boundary. The element of it which is in West Berkshire is a little more heavily owner-occupied and middle-class than the Reading borough section of it, though not extravagantly so. Labour is not negligible here, but is well behind the Tories. Further out, apart from Theale the three principal towns or villages are Tidmarsh, Pangbourne and Purley-on-Thames, which is slightly closer in towards Reading than the other two. All these three vote quite heavily Conservative. Pangbourne is even weaker territory for Labour than the other two; it is a fine small town on the Thames with some very good houses overlooking the river, and its popularity and expensiveness as a place to buy property is enhanced by the railway station, on the line which leads from Oxford to London Paddington. Purley is relatively functional but very pleasant and prosperous, Tidmarsh is almost twee and has some very fine old houses and the odd pub. There are also some entirely rural villages in between these larger villages and towns, perhaps most noteworthily Sulham with its pretty old church. The last of the West Berkshire wards is Theale. Theale is rather different in character from the other small towns and outer suburbs in this part of the constituency. It has a pleasant but relatively humdrum main street with small 19th-century cottages which are not particularly high on the posh scale, and also a fair-sized council estate element in its outskirts as well as some more luxurious owner-occupied homes. It alone of this part of the constituency does not normally elect Conservative councillors, being more apt to elect the Liberal Democrats who have long had local strength in many other parts of West Berkshire. However, it is a fair bet that many of its local Lib Dem voters vote tactically for either the Conservatives or Labour in general elections nowadays, and probably have done for well over 20 years, according to preference. Normally this would mean that the Conservatives retain a definite lead over Labour in the small town and its immediate surrounds, but in outstanding years Labour can just about rise to become competitive. Salter moved to Theale after his election to Parliament in 1997, and is estimated to have fought the Tories approximately to a draw in the town in the 2001 election; but usually the Tories can rely on at least some sort of lead here, however modest it might often be. Overall, the West Berkshire part of the constituency would be heavily more favourable to the Conservatives than Labour, even in their very poor year locally of 2001, and there is enough of this territory to be at least a considerable stumbling block for Labour in their attempts to win the constituency.
The Reading borough wards generally look very different, and their voting behaviour is also very different, with the main exception of Tilehurst ward. Tilehurst is one of the borough of Reading's wards which is furthest away from the town centre, and it is mostly owner-occupied, still mostly white, and relatively prosperous, although it does have a significant council estate element as many Reading wards do. It is the only Reading borough ward in the constituency which does not regularly elect Labour councillors, almost invariably preferring the Liberal Democrats in an echo of that party's strength just a short distance down the A4. Again, as with Theale, it is inevitable that many local Lib Dem voters will cast their ballots tactically in a general election. As far as can be told, the ward most likely divides its favours in general elections depending on the national picture, though the Tories might well fancy themselves to outpoll Labour a bit more often than vice versa. It does have a more middle-class social composition than the other Reading borough wards currently included in the constituency, and also would have far fewer students than further into the town. The other wards, however, all tend to vote Labour, although by rather varying amounts. Closest in to the town centre, Battle and Minster wards are mostly terraced areas with a large British Asian population. Battle is a completely safe Labour ward, as safe for Labour as the Tories are in any of their outlying wards; Minster has a more coherent Tory vote but is fairly comfortably Labour too. Between Battle and Tilehurst wards lies Norcot, a more outer-city council estate ward. This is also a Labour stronghold, politically pretty much in between Battle and Minster. To its south, appropriately, lies Southcote ward, which is distinctly similar to its neighbour although a little less compact, and it too is a Labour stronghold. In the north-west of the town is Kentwood. This is very much a dichotomy between council estates and owner-occupied interwar semis. It tends to vote Labour, but sometimes not by very much; Labour won by only a few handfuls of votes in the most recent local elections at the time of writing. The constituency is completed by Whitley ward, which perhaps is the most council-estate-dominated ward in the town, and the borough's most southerly ward. It forms a major contrast with the neighbouring Tory stronghold of Shinfield, over the constituency boundary into Wokingham, and has voted Labour uninterruptedly for many years. In most recent years the white working-class vote for the Conservatives has increased, but it is still a safe Labour ward nonetheless, even if somewhat less so than was once the case. It is the 6 Labour-held wards where Labour must rack up a large lead if they are to win this constituency, but in local elections Labour tends to succeed in that to a fair extent, as, although none of the wards is quite as safe as Battle (and probably none so multiethnic either), only in Kentwood do the Tories normally get all that close either. The destiny of general elections here perhaps mostly depends not on who wins the various wards, but to what extent, and on who can grab the lion's share of the tactical normally-Lib-Dem vote in Tilehurst and Theale.
It is not difficult to see why this seat is broadly marginal. Its MP Alok Sharma has served in a number of ministerial positions and is now an increasingly senior and high-profile member of the Conservative Cabinet, hosting the COP26 conference recently at the time of writing. He probably has a reasonable personal vote if not quite as impressive as that which Martin Salter enjoyed during the Blair years. However, this seat is not secure on these boundaries, or most probably any vaguely similar to it, as the Reading borough element is a fair-sized obstacle to Tory local ambitions. It is the kind of seat the loss of which would make it hard for the Tories to form a government, so therefore we can expect continuing strong future battles here in Battle ward and further out of the town.
