Old Bexley and Sidcup - 2nd December 2021

[Tony Otim]

Con 54.2
Lab 27.2
LD 8.3
Grn 3.4
RefUK 3.1
UKIP 1.8
ED 0.7
Heritage 0.5
CPA 0.4
Rejoin 0.3
OMRLP 0.1

[markgoodair]

Con 52.9
Labour 30.4
Lib Dem 13.1
Green 2.1
Reform 0.9
Heritage 0.1
OMRLP 0.1
Rejoin EU 0.1
CPA 0.1
English Dems 0.1
UKIP 0.1

[LDCaerdydd]

Conservative Party 51.6
Labour Party 32.9
Liberal Democrats 5.5
Green Party 2.6
Reform UK 2.5
UKIP 2.1
English Democrats 1.1
OMRLP 0.6
Heritage Party 0.4
Christian People's Alliance 0.4
Rejoin EU 0.3

[YL]

Con 44.9
Lab 31.0
Reform 10.4
Green 4.8
Lib Dem 4.0
Rejoin 1.1
UKIP 1.0
Heritage 0.8
CPA 0.7
Loony 0.7
Eng Dem 0.6

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

FRENCH Louie Thomas – Conservative Party 49.9
FRANCIS Daniel – Labour Party 33.2
REYNOLDS Simone – Liberal Democrats 4.8
ROOKS Jonathan Scot - Green Party 4.7
TICE Richard James Sunley - Reform UK 3.9
CHEESEMAN Elaine Frances - English Democrats 0.9
POYNTON John Edmund - UKIP 1
KURTEN David Michael – Heritage Party 0.3
HEWISON Richard - Rejoin EU 0.2
VALINEJAD - Carol Margaret = Christian People's Alliance 0.4
YOUNG Mad Mike – Official Monster Raving Loony Party 0.7

[bjornhattan]

Con 43.6
Lab 28.7
Reform 12.9
LD 7.4
Grn 4.4
Hritge 0.9
UKIP 0.8
Rejoin 0.4
CPA 0.4
EngDem 0.3
OMRLP 0.2

[ricmk]

Go on then:

Conservative 52%
Labour 30%
Reform 10%
Green 3%
Lib Dem 3%
Odds and Sods 2% (so it adds up lets say 0.4% for Rejoin EU and English Democrats, and 0.3% for UKIP, Heritage Party, Loonies and Christian Peoples Alliance)

[Pete Whitehead]

Con	49.8%
Lab	29.6%
LD	8.3%
Ref	4.4%
Grn	3.5%
UKIP	1.5%
ED	0.9%
CPA	0.7%
MRLP	0.6%
Her	0.4%
EU	0.3%

[agbutler]

Conservative 45.8
Labour 40.2
Liberal Democrats 1.5
Reform UK 7.6
Green 1.4
UKIP 0.6
English Democrats 0.6
Heritage Party 0.6
Christian Peoples' Alliance 0.6
OMRLP 0.6
Rejoin EU 0.5

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Competition still open

Closes 10pm tonight.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Dec 2, 2021 10:43:56 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

Competition still open

Closes 10pm tonight.

[jerryarkansas]

Conservative 40.3
Labour 37.7
Liberal Democrats 4.5
Reform UK 12.6
Green 1.2
UKIP 0.8
English Democrats 0.7
Heritage Party 0.8
Christian Peoples' Alliance 0.4
OMRLP 0.6
Rejoin EU 0.4

[mattb]

Con 53
Lab 33
Reform 5
Grn 4
LD 4
Herit .4
UKIP .2
Rejoin .1
CPA .1
EngDem .1
OMRLP .1

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Competition closed

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

20 entries

All predicting a Conservative win with Labour in 2nd.

Conservative win range is 5.6% AG Butler to 27% Tony Otim a difference of 21.4%

Range of predictions for each party
Conservative Party = 37.1% by John Loony to 54.2% by Tony Otim a range of 17.1%
Labour Party = 26% by GreenHert to 40.2% by AG Butler a range of 14.2%
Liberal Democrats = 1.5% by AG Butler to 26.4% by John Loony a range of 24.9%
Green Party = 1.4% by AG Butler to 8.2% by Richard Cromwell a range of 6.8%
Reform UK = 0% by Richard Cromwell to 20% by AJS a range of 20%
English Democrats = 0% by Richard Cromwell to 1.1% by LD Caerdydd a range of 1.1%
UKIP = 0% by Richard Cromwell to 2.1% by LD Caerdydd a range of 2.1%
Heritage Party = 0% by Richard Cromwell to 0.9% by Bjornhattena range of 0.9%
Rejoin EU = 0.1% by Mark Goodair to 1.5% by Richard Cromwell a range of 1.4%
Christian People's Alliance = 0% by Richard Cromwell to 0.7% by GreenHert & Pete Whitehead a range of 0.7%
Official Monster Raving Loony Party = 0.1% by Mark Goodair & Tony Otim to 1.2% by AndyKernow a range of 1.1%

Result will be posted after I rise in the morning as I'm not staying up for the result.

[Andrew_S]

Looks like the best predictions were from jamesmanc22, mysticrobin, andykernow, LDCaerdydd, Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith, mattb.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

This competition was hard fought and had a close result, with very low leading scores.

Congratulations to andykernow for the win. 3 spot on predictions meant the title was snatched from the jaws of ricmk

mattb completes the podium with a further below 10 score.

Andykernow 7.5
RickMK 7.7
Mattb 9.5
YL 10.5
JamesManc22 10.9
DHAA 10.9
Bigfatron 11.1
MysticRobin 12.1
LD Caerdydd 12.1
PeteWhitehead 12.4
GreenHert 13.9
TonyOtim 17.9
AGButler 21.3
MarkGoodair 22.1
PeterL 22.3
Bjornhatten 23.2
Richard Cromwell 29.1
JerryArkansas 29.5
AJS 30.7
John Loony 73.9

For completeness the only penalties in this competition were for John Loony. 13 for predicting for George Galloways Hat and 13 for a total of 113% increasing his total from 47.9 (last place) to 73.9 (still last place).

Thanks to all for taking part.

Hope to see you for the South North Staffordshire Shropshire by election competition.

DHAA

[ricmk]

That's recount territory surely? Well done andykernow and thank you Defenestrated Fipplebox

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Dec 3, 2021 9:12:26 GMT ricmk said:

That's recount territory surely? Well done andykernow and thank you Defenestrated Fipplebox

Recount confirms, , , and don't call me Shirley!

[The Bishop]

Yes some decent predictions here, though N Shropshire may be trickier.