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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Nov 26, 2021 18:25:47 GMT
Prediction Competition for Old Bexley and Sidcup by election.
2nd December 2021
The candidates as a reminder are:
FRENCH Louie Thomas – Conservative Party
FRANCIS Daniel – Labour Party
REYNOLDS Simone – Liberal Democrats
ROOKS Jonathan Scot - Green Party
TICE Richard James Sunley - Reform UK
CHEESEMAN Elaine Frances - English Democrats
POYNTON John Edmund - UKIP
KURTEN David Michael – Heritage Party
HEWISON Richard - Rejoin EU
VALINEJAD - Carol Margaret = Christian People's Alliance
YOUNG Mad Mike – Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 11 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 9.1 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 4.5 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. You will be penalised 13 points for predicting a percentage for George Galloway's hat.
7. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 2nd December 2021.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.
Have Fun.
DHAA
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,557
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Post by johnloony on Nov 27, 2021 23:37:20 GMT
Con 51.5
Lab 30.9
LD 3.0
Grn 3.8
RefUK 6.6
ED 1.2
UKIP 0.8
Heritage 0.5
Rejoin EU 0.7
CPA 0.5
OMRLP 0.4
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Post by agbutler on Nov 28, 2021 0:53:11 GMT
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 28, 2021 1:14:37 GMT
Con 37.1 Lab 28.4 LD 26.4 Grn 4.4 RefUK 1.7 ED 0.6 UKIP 0.4 Heritage 0.1 Rejoin EU 0.2 CPA 0.3 OMRLP 0.4 GGH 13.0 Your arithmetic is deficient like so many doing these daft exercises. So few of you seem to be capable of simple addition or again of simple proof reading. What an utter shower! |
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Post by jamesmanc22 on Nov 28, 2021 1:48:06 GMT
Conservatives 47.4%
Labour Party 33.6%
Reform UK 7.2%
Liberal Democrats 4.7%
Greens 4%
Ukip 0.9%
OMRLP 0.6%
English Democrats 0.5%
Rejoin EU 0.4%
Heritage Party 0.4%
CPA 0.3%
Conservative Hold
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 28, 2021 1:51:43 GMT
Conservatives 47.4% Labour Party 33.6% Reform UK 7.2% Liberal Democrats 4.7% Greens 4% Ukip 0.9% OMRLP 0.6% English Democrats 0.5% Rejoin EU 0.4% Heritage Party 0.4% CPA 0.3% Conservative Hold Congratulations. We have a new member who is actually able to count up to 100 without error. Well done. Looks to be a good forecast as well. They won't like you. |
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,557
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Post by johnloony on Nov 28, 2021 3:14:23 GMT
Con 37.1 Lab 28.4 LD 26.4 Grn 4.4 RefUK 1.7 ED 0.6 UKIP 0.4 Heritage 0.1 Rejoin EU 0.2 CPA 0.3 OMRLP 0.4 GGH 13.0 Your arithmetic is deficient like so many doing these daft exercises. So few of you seem to be capable of simple addition or again of simple proof reading. What an utter shower! There is nothing deficient about my arithmetic. My predikshun adds up to precisely 100.0%, as required. I added in an arbitrary 13.0% for George Galloway's Hat precisely because I wanted to demonstrate the fact that these predikshun competitions are indeed daft and pointless exercises. In other words, you are agreeing with my brilliance, not condemning it. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on Nov 28, 2021 18:18:38 GMT
Conservatives 42.5%
Labour Party 35.8%
Liberal Democrats 8.5%
Reform UK 5.4%
Greens 4.1%
Ukip 1.1%
English Democrats 0.8%
OMRLP 0.6%
Heritage Party 0.5%
CPA 0.4%
Rejoin EU 0.3%
Conservative Hold
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Post by greenhert on Nov 28, 2021 20:33:48 GMT
Conservative 51%
Labour 26%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Reform UK 6%
Green 5.1%
UKIP 1%
English Democrats 0.8%
Heritage Party 0.7%
Christian Peoples' Alliance 0.7%
OMRLP 0.5%
Rejoin EU 0.2%.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 28, 2021 21:35:07 GMT
Conservative 51% Labour 26% Liberal Democrats 8% Reform UK 6% Green 5.1% UKIP 1% English Democrats 0.8% Heritage Party 0.7% Christian Peoples' Alliance 0.7% OMRLP 0.5% Rejoin EU 0.2%. When was the last time 5 parties held their deposit in a by-election? Or, frankly, in any parliamentary election? |
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,557
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Post by johnloony on Nov 28, 2021 21:38:21 GMT
Conservative 51% Labour 26% Liberal Democrats 8% Reform UK 6% Green 5.1% UKIP 1% English Democrats 0.8% Heritage Party 0.7% Christian Peoples' Alliance 0.7% OMRLP 0.5% Rejoin EU 0.2%. When was the last time 5 parties held their deposit in a by-election? Or, frankly, in any parliamentary election? by-election: Sleaford & North Hykeham, 8th Dec 2016. In 5th place was Lincolnshire Independent (8.8%). Middlesbrough, 29th November 2012: Peace Party (6.3%) Rotherham, 29th November 2012: Conservative (5.4%) Cardiff South & Penarth, 15th November 2012: UKIP (6.1%) Barnsley Central, 3rd March 2011: Independent 5.2% Norwich North, 23rd July 2009: Green 9.7% Sedgefield, 19th July 2007: Independent 6.7% Ogmore, 14th February 2002: SLP 6.3% Glasgow Anniesland, 23rd November 2000: SSP 7.1% Antrim South, 21st September 2000: Alliance 6.6% Hamilton South, 23rd September 1999: Local Weirdo Party 5.3% Neath, 4th April 1991: SDP 5.2% |
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johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Nov 28, 2021 22:02:17 GMT
In the universe in which I was probably thinking that the result in OB&S might be influenced by the strong result for the Lib Dems in Shropshire North |
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,557
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Nov 28, 2021 22:55:18 GMT
Conservative 51% Labour 26% Liberal Democrats 8% Reform UK 6% Green 5.1% UKIP 1% English Democrats 0.8% Heritage Party 0.7% Christian Peoples' Alliance 0.7% OMRLP 0.5% Rejoin EU 0.2%. When was the last time 5 parties held their deposit in a by-election? Or, frankly, in any parliamentary election? 12 constituencies in the 2019 general election (including 8 in Northern Ireland) |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 29, 2021 18:01:36 GMT
When was the last time 5 parties held their deposit in a by-election? Or, frankly, in any parliamentary election? 12 constituencies in the 2019 general election (including 8 in Northern Ireland) And the 4 outside Northern Ireland were: Ceredigion, Swansea West, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, and Jarrow. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 29, 2021 18:35:36 GMT
When was the last time 5 parties held their deposit in a by-election? Or, frankly, in any parliamentary election? 12 constituencies in the 2019 general election (including 8 in Northern Ireland) In 2015 in Strangford 7 parties kept their deposits. In GB, also in 2015, 6 parties kept their deposits in SW Surrey (there may be others with 6). |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 29, 2021 18:51:33 GMT
12 constituencies in the 2019 general election (including 8 in Northern Ireland) And the 4 outside Northern Ireland were: Ceredigion, Swansea West, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney, and Jarrow. So only one in England. |
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Nov 29, 2021 19:30:53 GMT
| CON | 46.5% | | LAB | 36.5 | | GRN | 8.2% | | LD | 6.7% | | Rejoin EU | 1.5% | | OMRL | 0.6% | | Reform | 0% | | English Democrats | 0% | | Heritage | 0% | | CPA | 0% | | UKIP | 0% |
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Post by mysticrobin on Nov 29, 2021 19:40:39 GMT
Con 48%
Lab 34%
LibDem 5%
Reform UK 5%
Green 4%
UKIP 1.5%
English Democrats 0.5%
OMRLP 0.5%
Heritage 0.5%
Rejoin EU 0.5%
CPA 0.5%
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Post by bigfatron on Nov 30, 2021 12:57:40 GMT
FRENCH Louie Thomas – Conservative Party 16,200 48.8%
FRANCIS Daniel – Labour Party 11,000 33.1%
REYNOLDS Simone – Liberal Democrats 1,400 4.2%
ROOKS Jonathan Scot - Green Party 1,550 4.7%
TICE Richard James Sunley - Reform UK 1,500 4.5%
CHEESEMAN Elaine Frances - English Democrats 300 0.9%
POYNTON John Edmund - UKIP 600 1.8%
KURTEN David Michael – Heritage Party 200 0.6%
HEWISON Richard - Rejoin EU 300 0.9%
VALINEJAD - Carol Margaret = Christian People's Alliance 50 0.2%
YOUNG Mad Mike – Official Monster Raving Loony Party 100 0.3%
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Post by andykernow on Nov 30, 2021 16:17:30 GMT
Conservative Party 53.6%
Labour Party 30%
Liberal Democrats 3%
Green Party 3.8%
Reform UK 4.1%
English Democrats0.9%
UKIP 1.2%
Heritage Party 0.8%
Rejoin EU 0.9%
CPA 0.5%
OMRLP 1.2%
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