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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Nov 18, 2021 10:06:20 GMT
North Yorkshire PCC by-election - November 25th 2021 - Prediction Competition
The candidates as a reminder are:
Hannah Sarah BARHAM-BROWN Women's Equality Party
James Richard Lake BARKER Liberal Democrats
Zoë METCALFE Conservative Party Candidate
Emma Nicole SCOTT-SPIVEY Labour Party
Keith Graham TORDOFF Independent
Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 5 candidates, to 1 decimal place. (This is percentages for each candidate before transfers)
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. Please also predict the winner after transfers.
5. You will be penalised 5 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
6. You will be penalised 5 points for predicting the wrong winner.
7. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 25th November 2021.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.
Count is on Friday 26th.
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Post by greenhert on Nov 18, 2021 21:35:57 GMT
My prediction:
1st round:
Conservative (Zoe Metcalfe) 43%
Labour (Emma Scott-Spivey) 25%
Independent (Keith Tordoff) 19%
Liberal Democrats (James Barker) 9%
Women's Equality Party (Hannah Barham-Brown) 4%
2nd round (after transfers):
Conservative (Zoe Metcalfe) 55%
Labour (Emma Scott-Spivey) 45%.
Conservative HOLD.
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Nov 20, 2021 15:59:35 GMT
Conservative – 45% Labour Party – 27% Independent – 14% Liberal Democrats – 11.5% Women's Equality Party – 2.5%
Conservative HOLD after transfers
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Nov 24, 2021 17:03:23 GMT
Just under 29 hours to get your predictions in.
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Nov 24, 2021 18:15:35 GMT
| Hannah Barham-Brown | 35% | | | Zoe Metcalfe | 32% | Win After Transfers | | Emma Scott-Spivey | 28% | | | Keith Tordoff | 4% | | | James Barker | 1% | |
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,047 
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Post by peterl on Nov 24, 2021 18:23:48 GMT
1st round:
Conservative (Zoe Metcalfe) 36%
Independent (Keith Tordoff) 27%
Labour (Emma Scott-Spivey) 22%
Liberal Democrats (James Barker) 12%
Women's Equality Party (Hannah Barham-Brown) 3%
2nd round:
Conservative (Zoe Metcalfe) 53%
Independent (Keith Tordoff) 47%
Conservative HOLD
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,288
Member is Online
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 24, 2021 23:01:36 GMT
1st round: Conservative (Zoe Metcalfe) 36% Independent (Keith Tordoff) 27% Labour (Emma Scott-Spivey) 22% Liberal Democrats (James Barker) 12% Women's Equality Party (Hannah Barham-Brown) 3% 2nd round: Conservative (Zoe Metcalfe) 53% Labour (Emma Scott-Spivey) 47% Conservative HOLD Ummm... how does the 3rd placed candidate get into the two candidate 2nd round? Or is this a joke I'm not getting, much like the position itself? |
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,047
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Post by peterl on Nov 24, 2021 23:06:07 GMT
1st round: Conservative (Zoe Metcalfe) 36% Independent (Keith Tordoff) 27% Labour (Emma Scott-Spivey) 22% Liberal Democrats (James Barker) 12% Women's Equality Party (Hannah Barham-Brown) 3% 2nd round: Conservative (Zoe Metcalfe) 53% Labour (Emma Scott-Spivey) 47% Conservative HOLD Ummm... how does the 3rd placed candidate get into the two candidate 2nd round? Or is this a joke I'm not getting, much like the position itself? This is me copy pasting and forgetting to change the candidates in the second round. Now corrected.  |
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Post by agbutler on Nov 25, 2021 4:50:25 GMT
1st round:
Conservative (Zoe Metcalfe) 35%
Labour (Emma Scott-Spivey) 30%
Independent (Keith Tordoff) 20%
Liberal Democrats (James Barker) 10%
Women's Equality Party (Hannah Barham-Brown) 5%
2nd round:
Conservative (Zoe Metcalfe) 52%
Labour (Emma Scott-Spivey) 48%
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Nov 25, 2021 13:50:42 GMT
This competition is still open for predictions until 10pm tonight.
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Nov 25, 2021 13:52:00 GMT
| Hannah Barham-Brown | 35% |
| | Zoe Metcalfe | 32% | Win After Transfers | | Emma Scott-Spivey | 28% |
| | Keith Tordoff | 4% |
| | James Barker | 1% |
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That is a different prediction. |
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Nov 25, 2021 18:04:05 GMT
just under 4 hours left
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Nov 25, 2021 21:49:14 GMT
Final Call
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 25, 2021 21:53:02 GMT
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Nov 26, 2021 11:02:07 GMT
The turnout for this by-election prediction competition was predictably low. 
5 entries
100% Conservative win after transfers.
4 - Conservative lead from Labour before transfers. Range 18% (DHAA and GreenHert) to 5% (AG Butler)
1 - Women's Equality Party lead from Conservatives before transfers. By 3% (Richard Cromwell)
Range of predictions before transfers
Conservative - 32% (Richard Cromwell) to 45% (DHAA) = 13% range
Labour - 22% (Peter L) to 30% (AG Butler) = 8% range
Independent range - 4% (Richard Cromwell) to 27% (Peter L) =
Liberal Democrat range - 1% (Richard Cromwell) to 11.5% (DHAA)
Women's Equality Party range - 2.5% (DHAA) to 35% (Richard Cromwell)
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Nov 26, 2021 17:10:38 GMT
Congratulations to greenhert on winning the North Yorkshire PCC by-election prediction competition.
Final Scores GreenHert 16.7
DHAA 22.4
Peter L 22.7
AG Butler 22.9
Richard Cromwell 63.3
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Post by greenhert on Nov 26, 2021 17:52:33 GMT
Congratulations to greenhert on winning the North Yorkshire PCC by-election prediction competition.
Final Scores GreenHert 16.7
DHAA 22.4
Peter L 22.7
AG Butler 22.9
Richard Cromwell 63.3
Given how badly my local by-election predictions went, thank goodness for that. |
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