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Post by minionofmidas on Nov 30, 2021 22:43:08 GMT
Why was the whole council up in 2019, so soon after the 2015 rewarding? Did they just shift permanently away from elections by thirds or is there a story here?
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Post by phil156 on Nov 30, 2021 22:43:58 GMT
What a great idea wish all councils would do this. Well done Wyre Forest Council |
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,046 
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Post by peterl on Nov 30, 2021 22:48:10 GMT
(Provisionally pending last minute postal votes) 18% turnout. 9% in person turnout.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 30, 2021 22:48:54 GMT
(Provisionally pending last minute postal votes) 18% turnout. 9% in person turnout. That was a rather unusual announcement. |
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,046
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Post by peterl on Nov 30, 2021 22:49:42 GMT
(Provisionally pending last minute postal votes) 18% turnout. 9% in person turnout. That was a rather unusual announcement. Yes, playing to the audience obviously. Surely the RO knew the only people watching would be election geeks who would enjoy additional information.  |
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Post by andrewteale on Nov 30, 2021 22:50:45 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Nov 30, 2021 22:51:49 GMT
That was a rather unusual announcement. Yes, playing to the audience obviously. Surely the RO knew the only people watching would be election geeks who would enjoy additional information. I guess it means that the declaration will be audible. |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 30, 2021 22:56:12 GMT
Yes, playing to the audience obviously. Surely the RO knew the only people watching would be election geeks who would enjoy additional information. I guess it means that the declaration will be audible. Turnout 18.3% So around 1,390 votes I would guess |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 30, 2021 22:57:02 GMT
Yes, playing to the audience obviously. Surely the RO knew the only people watching would be election geeks who would enjoy additional information. I guess it means that the declaration will be audible. A previous time it was very mumbled but this time very much clearer. |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 30, 2021 22:59:55 GMT
Why was the whole council up in 2019, so soon after the 2015 rewarding? Did they just shift permanently away from elections by thirds or is there a story here? Moved away from thirds to all outs every 4 years. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 30, 2021 23:29:02 GMT
Looks like result imminent.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 30, 2021 23:38:02 GMT
WYRE FOREST Franche and Habberley North
ROSS, David Richard (Conservative) 564
KNOWLES, Nigel (Labour) 372
WALKER, Oliver Yasha (Liberal Democrat) 245
HINE, Douglas Peter (Independent) 198
BPs rejected 6
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 30, 2021 23:39:36 GMT
| Con | 564 | 40.9% | | Lab | 372 | 27.0% | | LD | 245 | 17.8% | | Ind | 198 | 14.4% |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 1, 2021 0:07:17 GMT
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 1, 2021 0:10:20 GMT
Wyre Forest: Franche & Habberley North - Conservative gain from Independent Community and Health ConcernComparison against District Council elections| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative | 564 | 40.9% | +21.1% | +21.1% | -1.0% | +12.5% | +8.6% | +9.5% | | Labour | 372 | 27.0% | +7.2% | +7.8% | -2.4% | -8.5% | +3.8% | +4.2% | | Liberal Democrat | 245 | 17.8% | +8.0% | +7.2% | +13.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | 198 | 14.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | ICHC ^ |
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| -30.1% | -28.2% | -19.1% | -17.8% | -18.3% | -20.3% | | Green |
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| -10.0% | -10.8% | -1.7% | -2.5% | -7.0% | -7.8% | | UKIP |
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| -10.6% | -11.5% | -3.4% | -15.7% | -16.7% | -15.4% | | TUSC |
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| -2.5% | -2.4% | | Total votes | 1,379 |
| 43% | 47% | 58% | 56% | 22% | 25% |
^ Independent Community and Health Concern Swing: not meaningful since 2019 but Labour to Conservative ¾% since 2018, 10½% since 2016 and 2½% / 2¾% since 2015 Council now: 13 Conservative, 9 ICHC, 5 Independent, 3 Liberal Democrat, 2 Labour, 1 Green Comparison against other elections| Party | 2021 B votes | 2021 B share | since 2021
County Council | since 2021
Town Council
"top" | since 2021 Town council "average" | since 2017 County Council | | Conservative | 564 | 40.9% | -4.9% | +5.1% | +0.7% | -12.9% | | Labour | 372 | 27.0% | +2.5% | +4.0% | +5.5% | -7.4% | | Liberal Democrat | 245 | 17.8% | +14.6% | +12.3% | +11.2% | +14.4% | | Independent | 198 | 14.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | ICHC |
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| -20.1% | -26.0% | -20.1% |
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| -6.5% | -9.8% | -11.7% | -2.1% | | UKIP |
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| -6.3% | | Total votes | 1,379 |
| 57% | 47% | 57% | 53% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 3¾% since May County Council elections, -½% / 2½% since May Town Council elections and 2¾% since 2017 County Council elections
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 1, 2021 0:13:59 GMT
Although the ICHC vote came from all parties, the Liberal Democrat vote largely went to ICHC when the Liberal Democrats ran a low level campaign. |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 1, 2021 8:58:53 GMT
Also the Worcestershire CC St Barnabas division has the same boundaries as Franche and Habberley North and was also won by David Ross in May. There can’t be many County Divisions and district wards with the same boundaries but different names in the country. |
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 1, 2021 9:13:39 GMT
There can’t be many County Divisions and district wards with the same boundaries but different names in the country. Now there’s a challenge |
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 1, 2021 9:47:12 GMT
Wyre Forest: Franche & Habberley North - Conservative gain from Independent Community and Health ConcernComparison against District Council elections| Party | 2021 votes | 2021 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2018 | since 2016 | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative | 564 | 40.9% | +21.1% | +21.1% | -1.0% | +12.5% | +8.6% | +9.5% | | Labour | 372 | 27.0% | +7.2% | +7.8% | -2.4% | -8.5% | +3.8% | +4.2% | | Liberal Democrat | 245 | 17.8% | +8.0% | +7.2% | +13.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | 198 | 14.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | ICHC ^ |
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| -30.1% | -28.2% | -19.1% | -17.8% | -18.3% | -20.3% | | Green |
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| -10.0% | -10.8% | -1.7% | -2.5% | -7.0% | -7.8% | | UKIP |
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| -10.6% | -11.5% | -3.4% | -15.7% | -16.7% | -15.4% | | TUSC |
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| -2.5% | -2.4% | | Total votes | 1,379 |
| 43% | 47% | 58% | 56% | 22% | 25% |
^ Independent Community and Health Concern Swing: not meaningful since 2019 but Labour to Conservative ¾% since 2018, 10½% since 2016 and 2½% / 2¾% since 2015 Council now: 13 Conservative, 9 ICHC, 5 Independent, 3 Liberal Democrat, 2 Labour, 1 Green Comparison against other elections| Party | 2021 B votes | 2021 share | since 2021
County Council | since 2021
Town Council
"top" | since 2021 Town council "average" | since 2017 County Council | | Conservative | 564 | 40.9% | -4.9% | +5.1% | +0.7% | -12.9% | | Labour | 372 | 27.0% | +2.5% | +4.0% | +5.5% | -7.4% | | Liberal Democrat | 245 | 17.8% | +14.6% | +12.3% | +11.2% | +14.4% | | Independent | 198 | 14.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | ICHC |
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| -20.1% | -26.0% | -20.1% |
| | Green |
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| -6.5% | -9.8% | -11.7% | -2.1% | | UKIP |
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| -6.3% | | Total votes | 1,379 |
| 57% | 47% | 57% | 53% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 3¾% since May County Council elections, -½% / 2½% since May Town Council elections and 2¾% since 2017 County Council elections Thank you for that "other elections" table -very interesting . How rare is it to be able to make reasonably meaningful comparisons across elections at three different levels? Seems to work on this occasion though. I had been looking at especially the county figures and had I been currently entering the prediction competition I would in consequence have seriously underestimated the Lib Dems and overrated the Tories, so just as well I am taking a break from that. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,163
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Post by Chris from Brum on Dec 1, 2021 10:00:29 GMT
Posts on social media had led me to believe that we were taking this one seriously, so it's good to see a decent uplift in our vote. Having soft-pedalled campaigning against ICHC, we were going to lack credibility as a challenger in this ward on this occasion, but that won't apply next time. Perhaps ICHC's time is drawing to a close?
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