Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 26, 2021 9:09:52 GMT
given the government are on the rocks atm it's quite concerning. I'm guessing had it been held before sleazegate we might have not held it That result will worry a lot of Labour councillors in London given all seats are up for election in May 2022. Turnout is going to be crucial. I think it would be a mistake to generalise too much from this one particular election where there were clearly huge local factors around the circumstances of the election. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 26, 2021 9:12:21 GMT
given the government are on the rocks atm it's quite concerning. I'm guessing had it been held before sleazegate we might have not held it That result will worry a lot of Labour councillors in London given all seats are up for election in May 2022. Turnout is going to be crucial. I think Labour were going to have a hard time in London anyway because 2018 was an all time high for councillors. But I had thought while we might see some losses in places like Tower Hamlets we might see gains in Wandsworth. It seems like the kind of place Starmer would go down well. Now though, if we can hold to most of our councils that would be a good result. I don't see any reason to worry to much about Enfield, Hammersmith or Harrow but lets count our chickens |
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 26, 2021 9:18:31 GMT
That result will worry a lot of Labour councillors in London given all seats are up for election in May 2022. Turnout is going to be crucial. I think it would be a mistake to generalise too much from this one particular election where there were clearly huge local factors around the circumstances of the election. its a balance. Having almost lost an election in Sheffield with a lot of local factors I know all about comrades overeacting and ignoring the warning signs. I don't know Wandsworth Labour's plan for the next year but we've put together a plan for the long campaign and are meeting every month to see what objectives have been met and plan the month ahead. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 26, 2021 9:28:28 GMT
Someone is getting angry?
At least you avoided the usual Tunbridge Wells cliche. My point though was to emphasise the rural bit. The Tories have for some time largely collapsed in Tunbridge Wells itself at local government level, but they remain pretty strong in the surrounding villages. They are at risk to a localist candidate if other opposing parties stand down. In this one Lib Dems and Greens stood aside, and Labour stood but their vote halved, so TWA won, in the end reasonably comfortably, even in a situation where the Conservatives fielded the daughter of the deceased ex-councillor, a ploy often worth a sympathy vote or two. These are long term trends I have been commenting on for years. I was the first here to suggest that Bolsover and Bassetlaw were very vulnerable and quite soon. And indeed at 2019 GE Bassetlaw had a slightly better result than Tunbridge Wells. And then there is the loss of Hove and Canterbury and the weakness in Worthing. Patterns and demographics are in the course of a substantial and fundamental change. Yhis is in the head and the guts of the electorate and quite independent of the fact that the current Conservatives are nearly utter rubbish. |
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Post by batman on Nov 26, 2021 9:28:56 GMT
the turnout was very low (in Wandsworth) and the circumstances of the by-election didn't help us. Having held on by one vote I'm very pleased that I went & helped....... So it was you wot won it! well every single Labour Party worker who did anything could claim that. I've never worked in such a close election before. My previous record was 6 votes, when we failed to gain East Chesterton ward in Cambridge from the Conservatives in 1980. The Tory hold prevented Labour from gaining an outright majority, too, but Labour had 21 seats plus the Mayoralty, so did have effective control anyway. I was personally acquainted with 4 King's students who failed to vote, too - although of course it is definitely not a student ward. |
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Post by batman on Nov 26, 2021 9:30:15 GMT
That result will worry a lot of Labour councillors in London given all seats are up for election in May 2022. Turnout is going to be crucial. I think Labour were going to have a hard time in London anyway because 2018 was an all time high for councillors. But I had thought while we might see some losses in places like Tower Hamlets we might see gains in Wandsworth. It seems like the kind of place Starmer would go down well. Now though, if we can hold to most of our councils that would be a good result. I don't see any reason to worry to much about Enfield, Hammersmith or Harrow but lets count our chickens Enfield & Hammersmith won't be any trouble. Harrow is quite a bit harder potentially, some of its wards are very volatile |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 26, 2021 9:30:37 GMT
Knowing the area very well, I never thought I’d read the words ‘ Conservatives gain Knutton from Labour’ . Knutton is about as far from ‘typically Conservative’ as you could imagine. I think I’d be more tempted to write “Huckfield gains Knutton”; the guy’s represented the Ward for 25 years at least, as Caring Party (which ran to the left of Blairite Labour), Independent and UKIP, before finally pitching his tent in the Conservatives. It’ll be an interesting six months as he’s already been critical of the Conservative administration in ‘Castle for their sloth like response to Walley’s Quarry and was apparently opposing the reforms to the care sector on the doorstep. I’m not at all persuaded that anybody else could win Knutton for the Conservatives, and the narrowness of his win was a surprise. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2021 9:35:01 GMT
Newcastle-under-Lyme has swung to the Tories in every election since 1997. 25.8% swing from 1997-2019.
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Post by michaelarden on Nov 26, 2021 9:47:15 GMT
Newcastle-under-Lyme has swung to the Tories in every election since 1997. 25.8% swing from 1997-2019. How much of that is the general anti Labour/establishment vote coalescing around them rather than the collapsing Lib Dems who came within 500 votes of winning the constituency a decade earlier? |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 26, 2021 9:48:32 GMT
Pretty good night for the Conservatives all things considered. Yes, but that was always quite likely with the contests that were up this week - they had 4 potential targets that looked really quite promising (5 if you include Wandsworth, which most of us probably wouldn't in advance) and they got 2 of them, narrowly missing the surprise one in Wandsworth, whilst also losing their only tight defence (I'm expecting Hambleton to be a relatively comfortable defence*), so quite a good night, but a few weeks back they might have made 4 or 5 gains from these contests, so slightly mixed. Next week the Conservatives have a lot of defences with some that look quite vulnerable so that may tell a different story. Labour had a real mixed bag - some very disappointing results and scarily close in Wandsworth, but good holds in Basildon and Lancaster and 2 gains (even if the Wigan one might have a slight air of good fortune about it. Lib Dems comfortably held the only seat they were competitive in, but there wasn't much else for them or us this week. * with regard to Hambleton, I suspect the 2019 result might make it look closer than it is, with the Greens taking all the non-Tory vote and with a split opposition this time, even if the Conservative vote falls a bit, they should still be fairly safe. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2021 9:50:06 GMT
Newcastle-under-Lyme has swung to the Tories in every election since 1997. 25.8% swing from 1997-2019. How much of that is the general anti Labour/establishment vote coalescing around them rather than the collapsing Lib Dems who came within 500 votes of winning the constituency a decade earlier? I think you're thinking of Ashfield? |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 26, 2021 9:59:19 GMT
How much of that is the general anti Labour/establishment vote coalescing around them rather than the collapsing Lib Dems who came within 500 votes of winning the constituency a decade earlier? I think you're thinking of Ashfield? The LDs under Alan Williams came very close to winning the by-election following John Golding’s resignation, but after that, whilst being a force on the Borough Council, from memory at least (and my carer’s here so I can’t check) have never threatened at Parliamentary level. |
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Post by evergreenadam on Nov 26, 2021 10:00:58 GMT
That result will worry a lot of Labour councillors in London given all seats are up for election in May 2022. Turnout is going to be crucial. I think it would be a mistake to generalise too much from this one particular election where there were clearly huge local factors around the circumstances of the election. The national scene on Thursday and the days running up to it could not have been more favourable for Labour, the electorate were exactly the type that would have been tuned into what was going with Boris and to be disgusted by it, the Council is run by the Tories. In my view those factors far outweigh the issues with the previous Councillor and the Labour group which in a large urban ward would probably have barely registered with the electorate. Labour hold by one vote would indicate that they are in danger of going backwards in Wandsworth in May and that the ramping of Labour seat gains there, other than through favourable ward boundary changes, could be premature. It is only one by-election result on a low turnout but I doubt anyone was predicting the possibility of a Tory gain in Balham before Thursday and yet it almost happened. Indeed there was a discussion about Balham in the Battersea page of the almanac on this website very recently. The Labour vote does not seem enthused, maybe that will change when the whole Council is up for election, but Labour will have to work at it. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2021 10:12:14 GMT
I think you're thinking of Ashfield? The LDs under Alan Williams came very close to winning the by-election following John Golding’s resignation, but after that, whilst being a force on the Borough Council, from memory at least (and my carer’s here so I can’t check) have never threatened at Parliamentary level. Oh of course the Liberals. I was confused by the reference to the Lib Dems. |
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 26, 2021 10:18:23 GMT
Is it too naive to think that Labour got lucky with the two indies splitting that vote, and they’d probably have lost had either one stood but not the other? I think it is quite likely that the great animosity between the two Independent groups on the council is not shared by that section of the electorate where their voters are found. Yup. It will more solidly consist of an 'anti-Labour' vote, so yeah, they did get luck. |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 26, 2021 10:20:49 GMT
Has anyone got the Basildon: Lee Chapel North voting figures. The Council has Labour being electerd no contest although 1,134 valid votes were cast. Furthermore the Council election office failed to answer the phone after almost 10 minutes ringing!!
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Post by owainsutton on Nov 26, 2021 10:22:43 GMT
Does anyone have the Halton Castle turnout? Going by May's figures, it's about 12%, I think?
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Post by andrewp on Nov 26, 2021 10:23:48 GMT
Has anyone got the Basildon: Lee Chapel North voting figures. The Council has Labour being electerd no contest although 1,134 valid votes were cast. Furthermore the Council election office failed to answer the phone after almost 10 minutes ringing!! Lab 451 Con 396 Res 135 ref UK 98 LD 55 Thats from a post of Facebook. Although that adds up to 1135 |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Nov 26, 2021 10:24:30 GMT
Has anyone got the Basildon: Lee Chapel North voting figures. The Council has Labour being electerd no contest although 1,134 valid votes were cast. Furthermore the Council election office failed to answer the phone after almost 10 minutes ringing!! Labour “no contest” according to the council: www.basildonmeetings.info/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=271&RPID=16950188 |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 26, 2021 10:25:33 GMT
Does anyone have the Halton Castle turnout? Going by May's figures, it's about 12%, I think? 12.6% |
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