Post by John Chanin on Oct 8, 2021 7:47:53 GMT
Hinckley is surprisingly anonymous for a town of 50,000 people. It doesn’t even have a non-league football club of any significance. The Boundary Commission have contributed to this anonymity by excluding it from the constituency name, despite the fact that the seat is virtually coterminous with the Hinckley & Bosworth District Council. It sits just to the east of Watling Street (the modern A5) - the great Roman road that separates the East Midlands from the West Midlands, and its western suburbs virtually run into the eastern suburbs of Nuneaton. The town is generally middle-class, but not of particularly high status, with a relatively low proportion of people with degrees, and is almost entirely white. It is also very uniform, with the only variety coming in the section south of the main Birmingham-Leicester railway line known as Burbage, where south Burbage is of slightly higher status, with the limited council housing concentrated on the north side of Burbage. There is a great deal of post-war and modern housing in extensive terraces throughout, with an older and rather undistinguished centre. Historically Hinckley was a centre of the hosiery trade, of which there is still some left, alongside other industry. But it is not an industrial town, and its prosperity comes from its location in the centre of the country close to motorways, which makes it a major distribution centre. Hinckley accounts for just under half of the constituency, and at local level is a Liberal Democrat stronghold, with them holding all 6 district wards (and 3 of the county wards), and controlling the local council.
The other urban area in the seat is Barwell/Earl Shilton (a continuous urban area with two names) to the north-east of Hinckley on the way to Leicester, which has a population of just under 20,000, and accounts for about a sixth of the seat. Earl Shilton is the older settlement in west Leicestershire, but today the town is noticeably down-market of Hinckley, with higher routine and lower managerial occupations, less than a sixth of the population with degrees, and a little more council housing. Unlike Hinckley it is however Conservative at local level, with the Liberal Democrats competitive in the western Barwell ward, and Labour having their only significant vote in the constituency in the eastern Earl Shilton ward.
Most of the rest of the seat is Bosworth, accounting for just under a quarter of the voters but most of the land. This is flat agricultural land with the Ashby canal winding its way north from Coventry through the west side of the seat, full of sleepy villages, including the splendidly named Sheepy Magna. The two largest villages are Desford and Newbold Verdon in the east, with tiny and rather twee Market Bosworth in the centre, connected by a toy train to the famous battlefield site, alongside the Ashby canal, where there is a visitor centre. Managerial occupations are high throughout, and it is mostly Conservative voting at local level, although the Liberal Democrats hold the slightly down-market Barlestone ward in the north, and are competitive in Newbold Verdon. The north-east of the seat is a little different. Ratby is a commuter village for Leicester alongside the M1, as is its neighbour Groby, the only part of the District currently excluded from the parliamentary seat. Markfield is halfway between Leicester and Coalville on the edge of Charnwood Forest, and has a quarrying history, although it is probably best seen as a commuter village. It does however return the only Labour councillors in the District. Both have populations of around 5000, and are more similar demographically to Hinckley than to Bosworth.
Although the Liberal Democrats control the local council, being dominant in Hinckley, and competitive in much of the rural territory, at parliamentary level this is a very safe Conservative seat, with among their top 30 majorities in 2019. However the Liberal Democrats have carried across more of their local support than in many other areas, coming fairly close to winning the seat in 2010, and retaining much more of their support than usual in the post-coalition election of 2015 when they remained second. However their vote has continued to fall, and Labour is now showing in second place, although it is far from clear where their vote comes from. The new MP here is Luke Evans, a former GP.
The seat is currently oversized as is neighbouring NW Leicestershire. The Boundary Commission is proposing to remove the commuter villages in the north-east, and replace them with two rural wards from the SW of the NW Leicestershire seat along the Staffordshire/Derbyshire border. This looks a bit odd on a map, but will not significantly affect the status of the seat as safely Conservative, and will make the Liberal Democrats chance of reviving their fortunes more difficult. The other change is that Hinckley is finally to get a mention in the seat name.
Census data: owner-occupied 77% (47/573 in England & Wales), private rented 12% (441st), social rented 11% (480th).
: White 97%, Black 0%, South Asian 1%, Mixed 1%, Other 1%
: Managerial & professional 35% (291st), Routine & Semi-routine 30% (285th)
: Degree level 24%(350th), No qualifications 39%(200th)
: Students 2% (492nd), Over 65- 18% (197th)
The other urban area in the seat is Barwell/Earl Shilton (a continuous urban area with two names) to the north-east of Hinckley on the way to Leicester, which has a population of just under 20,000, and accounts for about a sixth of the seat. Earl Shilton is the older settlement in west Leicestershire, but today the town is noticeably down-market of Hinckley, with higher routine and lower managerial occupations, less than a sixth of the population with degrees, and a little more council housing. Unlike Hinckley it is however Conservative at local level, with the Liberal Democrats competitive in the western Barwell ward, and Labour having their only significant vote in the constituency in the eastern Earl Shilton ward.
Most of the rest of the seat is Bosworth, accounting for just under a quarter of the voters but most of the land. This is flat agricultural land with the Ashby canal winding its way north from Coventry through the west side of the seat, full of sleepy villages, including the splendidly named Sheepy Magna. The two largest villages are Desford and Newbold Verdon in the east, with tiny and rather twee Market Bosworth in the centre, connected by a toy train to the famous battlefield site, alongside the Ashby canal, where there is a visitor centre. Managerial occupations are high throughout, and it is mostly Conservative voting at local level, although the Liberal Democrats hold the slightly down-market Barlestone ward in the north, and are competitive in Newbold Verdon. The north-east of the seat is a little different. Ratby is a commuter village for Leicester alongside the M1, as is its neighbour Groby, the only part of the District currently excluded from the parliamentary seat. Markfield is halfway between Leicester and Coalville on the edge of Charnwood Forest, and has a quarrying history, although it is probably best seen as a commuter village. It does however return the only Labour councillors in the District. Both have populations of around 5000, and are more similar demographically to Hinckley than to Bosworth.
Although the Liberal Democrats control the local council, being dominant in Hinckley, and competitive in much of the rural territory, at parliamentary level this is a very safe Conservative seat, with among their top 30 majorities in 2019. However the Liberal Democrats have carried across more of their local support than in many other areas, coming fairly close to winning the seat in 2010, and retaining much more of their support than usual in the post-coalition election of 2015 when they remained second. However their vote has continued to fall, and Labour is now showing in second place, although it is far from clear where their vote comes from. The new MP here is Luke Evans, a former GP.
The seat is currently oversized as is neighbouring NW Leicestershire. The Boundary Commission is proposing to remove the commuter villages in the north-east, and replace them with two rural wards from the SW of the NW Leicestershire seat along the Staffordshire/Derbyshire border. This looks a bit odd on a map, but will not significantly affect the status of the seat as safely Conservative, and will make the Liberal Democrats chance of reviving their fortunes more difficult. The other change is that Hinckley is finally to get a mention in the seat name.
Census data: owner-occupied 77% (47/573 in England & Wales), private rented 12% (441st), social rented 11% (480th).
: White 97%, Black 0%, South Asian 1%, Mixed 1%, Other 1%
: Managerial & professional 35% (291st), Routine & Semi-routine 30% (285th)
: Degree level 24%(350th), No qualifications 39%(200th)
: Students 2% (492nd), Over 65- 18% (197th)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Conservative | 23,132 | 42.6% | 22,939 | 42.8% | 31,864 | 56.7% | 36,056 | 63.9% |
Labour | 8,674 | 16.0% | 9,354 | 17.5% | 13,513 | 24.1% | 9,778 | 17.3% |
Liberal Democrat | 18,100 | 33.3% | 11,951 | 22.3% | 9,744 | 17.3% | 9,096 | 16.1% |
UKIP | 1,098 | 2.0% | 9,338 | 17.4% | ||||
Green | 1,047 | 1.9% | 1,502 | 2.7% | ||||
Others | 3,270 | 6.0% | ||||||
Majority | 5032 | 9.3% | 10,988 | 20.5% | 18,351 | 32.7% | 26,278 | 46.6% |
