SNP don’t take power in 2007

[stb12]

The SNP finished top of the Scottish election in 2007 by a plurality of one seat, it couldn’t have been much closer but the other parties clearly felt they had to let the largest party govern regardless of the margins.

With those margins it would have taken a small swing or turnout difference to finish the other way; Labour in general were starting to suffer at that time with Blair on the way out but you need to assume Scottish Labour would have stayed in power if they’d still managed to finish as the biggest party or maybe even if the seats had finished level. The Scottish Parliament was still some distance from a pro-independence majority.

So if Salmond hadn’t become first minister in 2007 what difference could it have made to the course of history especially the independence debate? Would Labour have got their act together to some extent and seen off the nationalist threat or would it just been delaying the inevitable for the 2011 election and a referendum would have just happened a bit later than 2014?

[afleitch]

Oct 2, 2021 23:35:33 GMT @boogieeck said:

It is even closer than that

The SNP won one seat by I think 46 votes after a box of votes had been declared invalid as destroyed by sea water on the boat to the count

The votes in question were from Labour FM Jack McConnel a home island

Except the boxes from Arran that were tabulated had the SNP ahead in all but one of them and ahead in Arran overall (64 votes ahead without factoring in postals) Arran was marginally stronger for the SNP than the mainland.

Anyway, had it ended up with Labour a seat ahead, the Lib Dems would have continued the coalition, the economic crash would happen, as would the 2010 GE with a similar result, and Holyrood would probably see a huge SNP win in 2011. Not a majority perhaps, but decisive. Possibly still an indy-ref.

[MacShimidh]

I find it hard to imagine a government led by Jack McConnell and Nicol Stephen doing anything particularly proactive to counter an insurgent SNP. Scottish Labour in particular had a “born to rule” mentality at this time, and even a narrow win in 2007 would have made this attitude even worse.

Basically, it would push the “real” timeline back by a few years, but I can't see anything fundamentally changing to stop the SNP winning big in 2011.

[The Bishop]

Hard to disagree with that, though assuming McConnell stood down some time in that parliament it might at least have given Wendy Alexander to show she was a less dismal choice for leadership than Iain Gray was (I am assuming the almost totally confected "scandal" that brought her down doesn't happen if she is actually in power)

[afleitch]

Oct 3, 2021 20:40:36 GMT MacShimidh said:

I find it hard to imagine a government led by Jack McConnell and Nicol Stephen doing anything particularly proactive to counter an insurgent SNP. Scottish Labour in particular had a “born to rule” mentality at this time, and even a narrow win in 2007 would have made this attitude even worse.

Basically, it would push the “real” timeline back by a few years, but I can't see anything fundamentally changing to stop the SNP winning big in 2011.

Agreed. McConnell was mind numbingly corporate and the 2003-2007 administration isn't really known for anything substantive (except, I remember, an obsession with 'knife crime')

I agree that Wendy Alexander would have taken on the FM role rather than McConnell hold it for ten years, but a 2011 drubbing would have still happened.

[The Bishop]

Though its possible Labour does a bit less badly then, and maybe even in 2015 too.