Post by Robert Waller on Aug 24, 2021 9:19:37 GMT
It seems a little bit like the past is a foreign country; in 1983 and 1987 the Conservatives won the outer west London constituency of Feltham and Heston. In 2019 Seema Malhotra won her fourth successive victory here since she first triumphed In a 2011 byelection, and even in a general election statistically regarded as Labour’s worst result since 1935, she enjoyed a comfortable margin of nearly 8,000, and there were only 120 safer Labour seats in the United Kingdom. There are a number of overlapping reasons for this long term secular trend away from the Conservatives.
Feltham & Heston consists roughly of the western half of the London Borough of Hounslow, which extends much further east-west than north-south. In addition to the communities named in the title, it includes Cranford, Bedfont, Hanworth, and part of Hounslow itself (its West ward). Traditionally Feltham, which had a constituency of its own in name from 1955 to 1979, has been regarded as a ‘white working class area’, while Heston has increasingly become a favoured residential area for those of Indian ancestry since the 1960s, with only 15% across the three Heston wards being of ‘White British’ heritage in the latest published census in 2011. In that year the only wards in this seat over 50 % white British were Hanworth (57%), Hanworth Park (59%), Bedfont (54%) and Feltham West (53%), with Feltham North just under 50%. More similar to Heston were Cranford (16%) and Hounslow West (13%). There are some interesting connected demographics. In the seat as a whole only just over 10% of residents are of pensionable age. This is the constituency with the highest proportion of Sikhs anywhere, and is also in the top ten for those following the Hindu religion.
In addition, there are substantial sections of social housing in the seat, particularly in Hanworth (38%) Bedfont and Feltham West (both 27%) but also in Heston West (33%), where the aerodrome from which Chamberlain famously travelled to and from Munich in 1938 has been replaced by (as well as a particularly grim motorway service area) a council built estate with roads named, for example, after Brabazon, Sopwith, Bleriot, and Amy Johnson. None of this helps the Conservative party. In the most recent local elections in Hounslow borough, in May 2018 (as in 2014), Labour won every ward and so then possessed all 30 councillors within the Feltham and Heston constituency.
However, it should also be said that the Tories did increase their share in the December 2019 general election from 31.8 to 35.6%, so may well have taken the lead in some of the wards; their strongest are Bedfont, Hanworth, and Hanworth Park with its relatively recently constructed private housing estates. These areas would not have been overly enthusiastic about remaining in the EU. Indeed Democratic Dashboard estimated that the Leave vote across the seat was almost 56%, well above the average for the capital. This is despite one other feature that is revealed by the Census figures. The constituency ranks no.1 out of 650 for ‘Employed in transport & storage’ at 16.0%. What does that imply? That this is one of the seats that is to a considerable extent dominated by the presence of Heathrow Airport, just to its west; it is often forgotten that the nation’s largest airport (and one of the world’s busiest) is actually a mighty freight hub as well as its passenger traffic. The number of planes still taking off and landing during the heart of the coronavirus lockdowns proves that. Even in those times, the sight and sound of aircraft has been regular, if not constant, in Feltham and Heston – but this is also a major contributor to the local employment and economy.
Driving along the straight, broad arterial carriageways of the A4 (Great West Road) and A30 (Great South West Road) within this constituency, for example around Heston itself, one can not only see the aeroplanes arrowing in towards Heathrow pretty much directly overhead but the respectable and solid inter war semi-detached housing along and near these roads. Driving an American interested in elections once, he was surprised when I said the residents would be heavily majority Asian. Having engaged in private tuition for a fair number of these families (with their strong educational motivation for their rising generation – and appropriate phrase in this case – I can attest to the impeccable affluence on display within those houses too). Yet the overwhelmingly South Asian wards are also overwhelmingly Labour too. It is one of the conundrums of British electoral politics why the Conservatives do not do better among the socially conservative and business conscious elements of these large communities (although there is at least hearsay evidence that the Tories do sometimes do better in general elections, especially when they win them, than in council elections). Unless or until this changes, Feltham and Heston, like the other ‘Asian’ seats, will remain Labour despite its generally middle class appearance.
In the Boundary Commission’s initial proposals for the ‘North Central and North West London sub region’ the only change proposed here is the removal of one ward, Heston East, to Brentford & Isleworth – a relatively minor change though somewhat awkward, with Heston being split between seats even though the name Feltham & Heston would be retained. The effect would be to reduce the Labour majority by a couple of thousand votes, but as nationally they are likely to rebound at least somewhat from their low ebb in 2019, it is highly doubtful whether a return to the ‘80s and a Conservative victory are on the cards, or in the air, here.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 10.6% 597/650
Owner-occupied 50.9% 574/650
Private rented 19.6% 130/650
Social rented 25.6% 99/650
White 44.9% 632/650
Black 7.1% 74/650
Asian 40.8% 12/650
Religion Sikh 13.1% 2/650
Religion Hindu 11.3% 9/650
Country of birth UK 56.3% 632/650
Passports Middle East and Asia 11.3% 5/650
Managerial & professional 23.4%
Routine & Semi-routine 26.4%
Employed in transport & storage 16.0% 1/650
Degree level 25.8% 323/650
No qualifications 21.1% 404/650
Students 11.0% 122/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 47.8% 517/573
Private rented 28.4% 75/573 very high rise 2011-21
Social rented 23.8% 84/573
White 36.1%
Black 7.5%
Asian 44.8%
Sikh 12.8% 6/650
Hindu 10.7% 10/650
Managerial & professional 23.3% 512/573
Routine & Semi-routine 26.8% 186/573
Degree level 33.2% 253/573
No qualifications 22.6% 108/573 (3/573 in increase 2011-21)
General Election 2019: Feltham and Heston
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Co-op Seema Malhotra 24,876 52.0 -9.2
Conservative Jane Keep 17,017 35.6 +3.8
Liberal Democrats Hina Malik 3,127 6.5 +3.9
Brexit Party Martyn Nelson 1,658 3.5
Green Tony Firkins 1,133 2.4 +0.9
Lab Majority 7,859 16.4 -13.0
Turnout 47,811 59.1 -5.8
Registered electors 80,932
Labour Co-op hold
Swing 6.5 Lab to C
Feltham & Heston consists roughly of the western half of the London Borough of Hounslow, which extends much further east-west than north-south. In addition to the communities named in the title, it includes Cranford, Bedfont, Hanworth, and part of Hounslow itself (its West ward). Traditionally Feltham, which had a constituency of its own in name from 1955 to 1979, has been regarded as a ‘white working class area’, while Heston has increasingly become a favoured residential area for those of Indian ancestry since the 1960s, with only 15% across the three Heston wards being of ‘White British’ heritage in the latest published census in 2011. In that year the only wards in this seat over 50 % white British were Hanworth (57%), Hanworth Park (59%), Bedfont (54%) and Feltham West (53%), with Feltham North just under 50%. More similar to Heston were Cranford (16%) and Hounslow West (13%). There are some interesting connected demographics. In the seat as a whole only just over 10% of residents are of pensionable age. This is the constituency with the highest proportion of Sikhs anywhere, and is also in the top ten for those following the Hindu religion.
In addition, there are substantial sections of social housing in the seat, particularly in Hanworth (38%) Bedfont and Feltham West (both 27%) but also in Heston West (33%), where the aerodrome from which Chamberlain famously travelled to and from Munich in 1938 has been replaced by (as well as a particularly grim motorway service area) a council built estate with roads named, for example, after Brabazon, Sopwith, Bleriot, and Amy Johnson. None of this helps the Conservative party. In the most recent local elections in Hounslow borough, in May 2018 (as in 2014), Labour won every ward and so then possessed all 30 councillors within the Feltham and Heston constituency.
However, it should also be said that the Tories did increase their share in the December 2019 general election from 31.8 to 35.6%, so may well have taken the lead in some of the wards; their strongest are Bedfont, Hanworth, and Hanworth Park with its relatively recently constructed private housing estates. These areas would not have been overly enthusiastic about remaining in the EU. Indeed Democratic Dashboard estimated that the Leave vote across the seat was almost 56%, well above the average for the capital. This is despite one other feature that is revealed by the Census figures. The constituency ranks no.1 out of 650 for ‘Employed in transport & storage’ at 16.0%. What does that imply? That this is one of the seats that is to a considerable extent dominated by the presence of Heathrow Airport, just to its west; it is often forgotten that the nation’s largest airport (and one of the world’s busiest) is actually a mighty freight hub as well as its passenger traffic. The number of planes still taking off and landing during the heart of the coronavirus lockdowns proves that. Even in those times, the sight and sound of aircraft has been regular, if not constant, in Feltham and Heston – but this is also a major contributor to the local employment and economy.
Driving along the straight, broad arterial carriageways of the A4 (Great West Road) and A30 (Great South West Road) within this constituency, for example around Heston itself, one can not only see the aeroplanes arrowing in towards Heathrow pretty much directly overhead but the respectable and solid inter war semi-detached housing along and near these roads. Driving an American interested in elections once, he was surprised when I said the residents would be heavily majority Asian. Having engaged in private tuition for a fair number of these families (with their strong educational motivation for their rising generation – and appropriate phrase in this case – I can attest to the impeccable affluence on display within those houses too). Yet the overwhelmingly South Asian wards are also overwhelmingly Labour too. It is one of the conundrums of British electoral politics why the Conservatives do not do better among the socially conservative and business conscious elements of these large communities (although there is at least hearsay evidence that the Tories do sometimes do better in general elections, especially when they win them, than in council elections). Unless or until this changes, Feltham and Heston, like the other ‘Asian’ seats, will remain Labour despite its generally middle class appearance.
In the Boundary Commission’s initial proposals for the ‘North Central and North West London sub region’ the only change proposed here is the removal of one ward, Heston East, to Brentford & Isleworth – a relatively minor change though somewhat awkward, with Heston being split between seats even though the name Feltham & Heston would be retained. The effect would be to reduce the Labour majority by a couple of thousand votes, but as nationally they are likely to rebound at least somewhat from their low ebb in 2019, it is highly doubtful whether a return to the ‘80s and a Conservative victory are on the cards, or in the air, here.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 10.6% 597/650
Owner-occupied 50.9% 574/650
Private rented 19.6% 130/650
Social rented 25.6% 99/650
White 44.9% 632/650
Black 7.1% 74/650
Asian 40.8% 12/650
Religion Sikh 13.1% 2/650
Religion Hindu 11.3% 9/650
Country of birth UK 56.3% 632/650
Passports Middle East and Asia 11.3% 5/650
Managerial & professional 23.4%
Routine & Semi-routine 26.4%
Employed in transport & storage 16.0% 1/650
Degree level 25.8% 323/650
No qualifications 21.1% 404/650
Students 11.0% 122/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 47.8% 517/573
Private rented 28.4% 75/573 very high rise 2011-21
Social rented 23.8% 84/573
White 36.1%
Black 7.5%
Asian 44.8%
Sikh 12.8% 6/650
Hindu 10.7% 10/650
Managerial & professional 23.3% 512/573
Routine & Semi-routine 26.8% 186/573
Degree level 33.2% 253/573
No qualifications 22.6% 108/573 (3/573 in increase 2011-21)
General Election 2019: Feltham and Heston
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Co-op Seema Malhotra 24,876 52.0 -9.2
Conservative Jane Keep 17,017 35.6 +3.8
Liberal Democrats Hina Malik 3,127 6.5 +3.9
Brexit Party Martyn Nelson 1,658 3.5
Green Tony Firkins 1,133 2.4 +0.9
Lab Majority 7,859 16.4 -13.0
Turnout 47,811 59.1 -5.8
Registered electors 80,932
Labour Co-op hold
Swing 6.5 Lab to C
