Post by Robert Waller on Aug 20, 2021 9:00:14 GMT
There are, in a way, two Rother Valley constituencies in England. The one actually named as such, located in South Yorkshire, made news in the 2019 general election as part of the so-called ‘Red Wall’ of traditional Labour working class seats in the North and Midlands that fell to the appeal of Boris Johnson and his ‘get Brexit done’ slogan. In East Sussex, though, there is a constituency very different in nature that is largely coterminous with the local government district of Rother, itself named after a different river of that name from the one in Yorkshire. If the northern seat had not taken precedence (it has held the name since 1918), this one could well have been called Rother Valley. In fact, since its creation in 1983, it has been called Bexhill and Battle.
This was essentially the former Rye county division minus the Cinque Port towns of Rye and Winchelsea, which are now placed in the marginal Hastings and Rye. Bexhill and Battle consists of a coastal strip between Hastings and Eastbourne, together with the fertile and wooded countryside behind. This is the area most associated with the Norman conquest of England of 1066, for William I landed at Pevensey and defeated the army of the Anglo-Saxon regime at Battle, the heart of the inland part of the seat. Despite this distant history of conflict, the seat has always reflected the peaceful image of Bexhill (its most notable landmark, the 1930s art deco De La Warr Pavilion, has two ‘r’s in Warr!) rather the competitive and indeed martial implications of Battle.
The reasons for this are not hard to fathom. Its residents are white – or at least 97% of them were at the time of the last published Census. Fewer than one in ten live in housing’s social rented sector. Significant sources of employment are tourism and agriculture. Above all, this is the seat in the country with the fifth highest proportion of pensioners. Around thirty-five per cent of the electorate are of pensionable age, which may well mean that nearly half of all votes in the Bexhill and Battle constituency in 2019 were cast by the elderly, who have a strikingly better turnout rate than younger groups. In parts of Bexhill itself the figures are even more dramatic: over half of adults in Sackville and Collington wards are over 65. The support of ‘grey voters’ cannot be taken for granted, but the stability of the results here suggests long-term Conservative dominance. The Tory majority in Bexhill & Battle has never dipped out of five figures, and in four out of the ten general elections has been over 20,000 and the highest ever, 26,059 was in the most recent, in 2019. Labour were in second place then, as they had been in 2017; the other runners-up have been a motley crew: UKIP in 2015, Liberal Democrats between 1992 and 2010, SDP in 1987, Liberal in 1983 – and none of those in second place has ever done better than 28.9% (LD, 1992).
The picture in local elections on Rother district council has been somewhat different, for the ‘Rother Alliance’ of Independents, Liberal Democrats, Labour and Green councillors have a majority between them and formally have control. Labour for example topped the poll in the most recent district elections in May 2019 in Bexhill Central an in the inland ‘social housing’ ward of Sidley; Greens in Bexhill Old Town and Worsham; Independents everywhere else in Bexhill; Liberal Democrats in both Battle wards and Robertsbridge (of Gray-Nicolls cricket bat manufacture renown). This wide variety does not, however, extend so much to East Sussex county council elections, in which the Conservatives won a majority of the Rother divisions in May 2021; and the Tories did win all the wards in the minority of this seat in Wealden district – in Heathfield, Herstmonceux and Pevensey - at their most recent council elections, in May 2019.
The fact is that although this seat contains the sites of the most famous invasion and battle in English history, there are no bloody or close-run electoral contests in site, and none in prospect, not even using the telescopes of the Royal Observatory at Herstmonceux. Nor are significant boundary changes likely, as the initial proposals of the Commission just suggest reducing the seat's electorate to within the 5% quota by removing the Heathfield wards. As these are in the Wealden council section in this seat, Bexhill & Battle would therefore become even more similar to the Rother district.
Both constituencies based on river Rothers swung to the Conservatives in December 2019, the one in Yorkshire more notably of course, as it had been held by the Labour party without a break since its formation in 1918,(yes, even in 1931) , but in both cases the referendum result in 2016 and the subsequent failure, or at least delay, in enacting the results of that plebiscite was influential, as Bexhill and Battle is estimated to have voted 58% for Leave, well above the national and regional average – almost certainly due to its elderly age structure. In an early edition of the Almanac I contrasted Bexhill & Battle with Rother Valley in the apparently impregnable ‘Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire’, which has surprised many by the softening of its defences in recent years, but this sturdy bastion in the Blue Wall is not going to crack any time soon.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 26.9% 5/650
Owner-occupied 75.0% 68/650
Private rented 14.1% 333/650
Social rented 8.9% 612/650
White 97.2% 209/650
Black 0.3% 456/650
Asian 1.2% 466/650
Managerial & professional 33.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 21.4%
Retired 21.1% 10/650
Degree level 25.9% 320/650
No qualifications 23.4% 317 /650
Students 5.8% 516/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 75.2% 51/573
Private rented 16.0% 389/573
Social rented 8.8% 546/573
White 95.7%
Black 0.5%
Asian 1.5%
Managerial & professional 34.8% 229/573
Routine & Semi-routine 19.6% 430/573
Degree level 30.1% 330/573
No qualifications 17.7% 296/573
General Election 2019: Bexhill & Battle
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Huw Merriman 37,590 63.6 +1.6
Labour Christine Bayliss 11,531 19.5 −5.2
Liberal Democrats Martin Saunders 7,280 12.3 +4.8
Green Jonathan Kent 2,692 4.6 +2.2
C Majority 26,059 44.1 +6.8
Turnout 59,093 72.1 −1.0
Conservative hold
Swing 3.4 Lab to C
This was essentially the former Rye county division minus the Cinque Port towns of Rye and Winchelsea, which are now placed in the marginal Hastings and Rye. Bexhill and Battle consists of a coastal strip between Hastings and Eastbourne, together with the fertile and wooded countryside behind. This is the area most associated with the Norman conquest of England of 1066, for William I landed at Pevensey and defeated the army of the Anglo-Saxon regime at Battle, the heart of the inland part of the seat. Despite this distant history of conflict, the seat has always reflected the peaceful image of Bexhill (its most notable landmark, the 1930s art deco De La Warr Pavilion, has two ‘r’s in Warr!) rather the competitive and indeed martial implications of Battle.
The reasons for this are not hard to fathom. Its residents are white – or at least 97% of them were at the time of the last published Census. Fewer than one in ten live in housing’s social rented sector. Significant sources of employment are tourism and agriculture. Above all, this is the seat in the country with the fifth highest proportion of pensioners. Around thirty-five per cent of the electorate are of pensionable age, which may well mean that nearly half of all votes in the Bexhill and Battle constituency in 2019 were cast by the elderly, who have a strikingly better turnout rate than younger groups. In parts of Bexhill itself the figures are even more dramatic: over half of adults in Sackville and Collington wards are over 65. The support of ‘grey voters’ cannot be taken for granted, but the stability of the results here suggests long-term Conservative dominance. The Tory majority in Bexhill & Battle has never dipped out of five figures, and in four out of the ten general elections has been over 20,000 and the highest ever, 26,059 was in the most recent, in 2019. Labour were in second place then, as they had been in 2017; the other runners-up have been a motley crew: UKIP in 2015, Liberal Democrats between 1992 and 2010, SDP in 1987, Liberal in 1983 – and none of those in second place has ever done better than 28.9% (LD, 1992).
The picture in local elections on Rother district council has been somewhat different, for the ‘Rother Alliance’ of Independents, Liberal Democrats, Labour and Green councillors have a majority between them and formally have control. Labour for example topped the poll in the most recent district elections in May 2019 in Bexhill Central an in the inland ‘social housing’ ward of Sidley; Greens in Bexhill Old Town and Worsham; Independents everywhere else in Bexhill; Liberal Democrats in both Battle wards and Robertsbridge (of Gray-Nicolls cricket bat manufacture renown). This wide variety does not, however, extend so much to East Sussex county council elections, in which the Conservatives won a majority of the Rother divisions in May 2021; and the Tories did win all the wards in the minority of this seat in Wealden district – in Heathfield, Herstmonceux and Pevensey - at their most recent council elections, in May 2019.
The fact is that although this seat contains the sites of the most famous invasion and battle in English history, there are no bloody or close-run electoral contests in site, and none in prospect, not even using the telescopes of the Royal Observatory at Herstmonceux. Nor are significant boundary changes likely, as the initial proposals of the Commission just suggest reducing the seat's electorate to within the 5% quota by removing the Heathfield wards. As these are in the Wealden council section in this seat, Bexhill & Battle would therefore become even more similar to the Rother district.
Both constituencies based on river Rothers swung to the Conservatives in December 2019, the one in Yorkshire more notably of course, as it had been held by the Labour party without a break since its formation in 1918,(yes, even in 1931) , but in both cases the referendum result in 2016 and the subsequent failure, or at least delay, in enacting the results of that plebiscite was influential, as Bexhill and Battle is estimated to have voted 58% for Leave, well above the national and regional average – almost certainly due to its elderly age structure. In an early edition of the Almanac I contrasted Bexhill & Battle with Rother Valley in the apparently impregnable ‘Socialist Republic of South Yorkshire’, which has surprised many by the softening of its defences in recent years, but this sturdy bastion in the Blue Wall is not going to crack any time soon.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 26.9% 5/650
Owner-occupied 75.0% 68/650
Private rented 14.1% 333/650
Social rented 8.9% 612/650
White 97.2% 209/650
Black 0.3% 456/650
Asian 1.2% 466/650
Managerial & professional 33.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 21.4%
Retired 21.1% 10/650
Degree level 25.9% 320/650
No qualifications 23.4% 317 /650
Students 5.8% 516/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 75.2% 51/573
Private rented 16.0% 389/573
Social rented 8.8% 546/573
White 95.7%
Black 0.5%
Asian 1.5%
Managerial & professional 34.8% 229/573
Routine & Semi-routine 19.6% 430/573
Degree level 30.1% 330/573
No qualifications 17.7% 296/573
General Election 2019: Bexhill & Battle
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Huw Merriman 37,590 63.6 +1.6
Labour Christine Bayliss 11,531 19.5 −5.2
Liberal Democrats Martin Saunders 7,280 12.3 +4.8
Green Jonathan Kent 2,692 4.6 +2.2
C Majority 26,059 44.1 +6.8
Turnout 59,093 72.1 −1.0
Conservative hold
Swing 3.4 Lab to C
