Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,746
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 14, 2021 20:30:17 GMT
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 14, 2021 20:32:51 GMT
well, he is likely to know the signs isn't he? |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Aug 14, 2021 21:06:24 GMT
The Donald did exactly that mere months ago. |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850 
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Post by johng on Aug 14, 2021 23:09:55 GMT
Official results are here.
62 of 152 districts so far with the opposition candidate far ahead.
Considering how rigged the election was in his direction, truly incredible. Trump is not comparable.
I know little of the opposition candidate, but Lungu was quickly taking Zambia in the same direction as their southern neighbour.
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Post by ibfc on Aug 15, 2021 2:27:27 GMT
The opposition is a liberal party with close ties to the South African Democratic Alliance. Hilichema is from the second largest Tonga ethnic group, is one of the richest people in the country and has run for president 5 times before. This is a very positive result for anyone who doesn’t want Zambia to become a kleptocracy.
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nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
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Post by nelson on Aug 15, 2021 11:58:37 GMT
Official results are here.
62 of 152 districts so far with the opposition candidate far ahead.
Considering how rigged the election was in his direction, truly incredible. Trump is not comparable.
I know little of the opposition candidate, but Lungu was quickly taking Zambia in the same direction as their southern neighbour.
The vote in Zambia is extremely ethnically polarized outside of the mixed Copperbelt (and to a lesser degree the capital Lusaka), and it looks like a lot of the pro-Lungu north and east hasn't been counted, so it's not over yet.  |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Aug 15, 2021 12:20:00 GMT
The vote in Zambia is extremely ethnically polarized outside of the mixed Copperbelt (and to a lesser degree the capital Lusaka), and it looks like a lot of the pro-Lungu north and east hasn't been counted, so it's not over yet. Obviously I am no expert on Zambia, but the reports coming out are that Lungu has not done as well as expected in areas where he should have been very strong.
Even Lungu thinks he's lost on these numbers. He wouldn't be claiming fraud otherwise.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 15, 2021 14:41:48 GMT
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nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
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Post by nelson on Aug 15, 2021 14:58:34 GMT
Only 6 of 22 constituencies counted in the Copperbelt. HH leads in all 6 (Chingola, Nchanga, Kalulushi, Masaiti, Kankoyo, Kabushi), but he needs that pattern to hold up in the remaining ones. Usually whoever wins the Copperbelt wins, but I'd like to see more Copperbelt constituencies (at least half) to be certain and there's a risk of ballot stuffing in the PF strongholds in the north where all tribal leaders and local officials are PF affiliated.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Aug 15, 2021 20:32:33 GMT
128 of 156 districts out now.
The opposition candidate leads 2,324,847 to 1,464,681.
Turnout last time was 3,781,505 so turnout is already higher than then with 28 to go.
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nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
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Post by nelson on Aug 15, 2021 20:52:01 GMT
128 of 156 districts out now. The opposition candidate leads 2,324,847 to 1,464,681. Turnout last time was 3,781,505 so turnout is already higher than then with 38 to go. 14 of the 22 Copperbelt constituencies counted and Lungu has only won one of them. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 16, 2021 5:48:22 GMT
From electoral commission site
After 155/156
2,810,757 to 1,814,201
Votes cast 4,858,193
Rejected 124,906
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Aug 16, 2021 9:21:44 GMT
The electoral commission has declared Hichilema to be the winner of the election.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 16, 2021 10:44:02 GMT
Good on Lungu.
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nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
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Post by nelson on Aug 16, 2021 13:34:51 GMT
On paper it's perhaps unsurprising that Lungu lost. General incompetence, economic mismanagement, public debt spiralling out of control and one of the worst handlings of the pandemic in Africa, combined with allowing PF "cadres" to become a law unto themselves, dole out vigilante justice and extort money from market stalls and minibus taxis, all accompanied by unwillingness to even try to explain government policy to the voters should normally mean that the government would lose.
But while Zambian elections - despite never being completely "free and fair" - are generally quite good by African standards I was certain that Lungu would successfully rig this one given his strong authoritarian tendencies.
Lungu used the violence committed against Patriotic Front supporters in the opposition strongholds in the south (e.g. the PF’s leader in the North Western Province Jackson Kungo, and the brother of another PF leader were murdered), to call in the Army and tried to put the NW, Western, Southern provinces under military control and use that as the pretext for a clampdown on the opposition and invalidation of the election results, all followed by the media (incl. social media) blackout that usually accompany massive rigging in 21st century Africa.
Yet it didn't happen and Lungu agreed to step down voluntarily without even trying to hang on to power. So what happened? The most logical explanation is that the Army top brass intervened and declined to cooperate. Lungu was Minister of Defence 2013-15 and after the dead of party founder Michael Sata the Army intervened in the power struggle with (white) Vice President and Acting President Guy Scott in the run-up to the 2015 presidential by-election to secure that Scott and his supporters accepted that Lungu took over as Party President after using massive intimidation and rigging the process (by allowing non-party members to vote) and became the PF's presidential candidate. Without military support it's highly doubtful Lungu would have succeeded. So he was perceived as the candidate of the military. But in the end the chaos Lungu allowed his "cadres" to unleash, and his incompetence and alcoholism probably meant that the high command decided it was better to uphold Zambia's post-Kaunda tradition of relatively fair elections rather than back a man so obviously out of his depth.
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nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
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Post by nelson on Aug 17, 2021 11:54:16 GMT
Hakainde Hichilema will be inaugurated next Tuesday.
UPND will have a narrow majority in the National Assembly without having to buy the support of any Indies or PF defectors.
UPND 81
PF 63
PNUP 1
Indies 10
There is going to a by-election in Kaumbwe in Eastern Province because UPND's candidate Petauke Bornface Khondowe died in late July after the nominations had closed. Eastern is Lungu's home province, but not a hardcore PF stronghold (those are in the north), so it's likely they'll elect the UPND candidate to be on the winning side.
Lots of PF grandees have been busy sucking up to HH and apologizing for what they and their party have said and done to him.
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