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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 30, 2021 21:33:37 GMT
In early print editions of The Almanac of British Politics, I made the point that Gosport was consistently one of the less strongly middle-class constituencies to rank as a safe Conservative seat. The evidence was that it had one of the lowest percentages of professional and managerial workers of any Tory division – only 25% at the time of the 1991 Census, for example. This figure was a good indicator of the predominant class tone of a seat, and usually, in the era of ‘class voting’ of its political preferences. Yet it withstood the tidal advance of New Labour between 1997 and 2005, a high water mark for the party, and the town has never had a Labour MP, including in 1966 as part of Gosport & Fareham and in 1945 as part of Fareham.
Nowadays in the age when everyone seems to know about the collapse of Labour’s so-called Red Wall, and the electoral transformation in recent general elections which has seen the Conservatives take constituencies such as Mansfield and Bolsover, Bishop Auckland and Rother Valley, and all the seats in gritty Stoke-on-Trent, Gosport is no longer any kind of dramatic outlier, even though it still ranks well into the top half of those employed in routine and semi-routine occupations, and below half way on higher managerial, administrative and professional employment. However what still does suggest that an explanation of the strength of its preference for Conservatives is still needed is that it now has the 21st safest of all the 380 Tory majorities recorded in December 2019, which might surprise those taking a tour of this south Hampshire seat.
How is this electoral history explained? One main clue lies in Gosport’s high ‘armed services’ vote, for the town is but a mile across the water from Portsmouth, and Royal Navy bases abound. In the most recent census the Gosport seat was placed at no.3 in the order of employment in ‘public administration and defence’, behind only the ‘Salisbury Plain’ army constituency of Devizes and Richmond (Yorkshire) which includes Catterick Camp. The services, like the defence and arms industries, have traditionally offered solid support to the Conservatives regardless of social class, seeing that party as by far the most likely to respect their role and guarantee their jobs. The constituency of Gosport is also over 96% white and is below average for the proportion of university graduates and full time students, and voted around 62&% to 38% to leave the EU. It may not be upper class; it is not left-wing.
Parts of Gosport still look unlikely settings for such strong Conservatism, for example the town centre just across the narrow sea channel from Portsmouth’s Spinnaker tower and naval docks, and parts of Rowner, despite the demolition of its notorious estate of brutalist tower blocks by 2015
As well as Rowner, Forton, Grange and the two Bridgemary wards also still have a sizeable promotion of socially rented houses. There are, however, a variety of neighbourhoods within the Gosport constituency, including seaside wards such as Alverstoke, Anglesey and the coastal part Lee-on-Solent, all of which have over 25% of residents (and even more voters) over 65 years of age, while inland Elson and Hardway are heavily (over 70%) owner occupied.
The Labour party makes very little impact in Gosport local elections, as well as parliamentary contests; in fact in May 2021 Labour won no wards at all, and only polled 13% across the 17 wards in the borough (it might be noted that Wikipedia’ summary of 22% is incorrect), whereas previously they had at least taken the central Town ward. However, municipally Gosport is not a one-party state. In 2021 the Liberal Democrats won six wards to the Tories’ 11, and received a very respectable 35% of the vote compared with 49%. The Lib Dem success came in varied areas, from 77% owner occupied Elson to Bridgemary North with its ex-council housing. Their success is based on the hard grind of local activity.
However in general elections they haven’t even reached second place since 2010, and in 2119 managed a poor third with 11%, only around a third of the Liberal share here back in 1987. The Liberal Democrats could perhaps build on their local efforts to regain second place, but it is very hard to see Gosport as anything other than a Conservative stronghold for the foreseeable future. Tucked into a geographical corner and around the correct electorate quota, it will still include the whole of the borough of Gosport plus two wards, Hill Head and Stubbington, from neighbouring Fareham, and thus be one of eight constituencies in the Berkshire/Hampshire/Surrey sub-region initially proposed to remain entirely unchanged in the Boundary Commission for England’s ‘2023 review’.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 18.6% 197/650
Owner-occupied 68.0% 282/650
Private rented 15.2% 266/650
Social rented 14.9% 357/650
White 96.7% 257/650
Black 0.6% 326/650
Asian 1.2% 465/650
Managerial & professional 31.6%
Routine & Semi-routine 27.6%
Employed in public administration and defence 15.0% 3/650
Degree level 23.0% 398/650
No qualifications 21.2% 400/650
Students 6.2% 450/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 67.5% 245/573
Private rented 17.7% 157/573
Social rented 14.8% 310/573
White 95.6%
Black 1.1%
Asian 1.4%
Managerial & professional 32.8% 272/573
Routine & Semi-routine 26.4% 201/573
Degree level 26.4% 445/573
No qualifications 16.9% 339/573
General Election 2019: Gosport
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Caroline Dinenage 32,226 66.5 +4.6
Labour Tom Chatwin 8,948 18.5 -8.7
Liberal Democrats Martin Pepper 5,473 11.3 +6.6
Green Zoe Aspinall 1,806 3.7 +1.6
C Majority 23,278 48.0 +13.3
Turnout 49,481 65.9 -0.8
Conservative hold
Swing 6.6 Lab to C
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Post by tonyhill on Jul 31, 2021 7:17:01 GMT
Gosport is one of those constituencies (sadly all too common) where Liberal Democrat success, although only at local level, is built on the campaigning expertise of one individual. That is not to say that there are not very good ward councillors, but when that expertise is lost the LibDem challenge at Borough level will almost certainly collapse. I suspect that this happens more infrequently with the Labour and Conservative parties.
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 31, 2021 8:24:03 GMT
Gosport is one of those constituencies (sadly all too common) where Liberal Democrat success, although only at local level, is built on the campaigning expertise of one individual. That is not to say that there are not very good ward councillors, but when that expertise is lost the LibDem challenge at Borough level will almost certainly collapse. I suspect that this happens more infrequently with the Labour and Conservative parties. Who is the individual? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 31, 2021 8:27:04 GMT
Peter Chegwyn I suspect.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2021 11:38:38 GMT
Something interesting about both the Gosport constituency (including the bits outside the borough) is the odd transport situation. There are no train stations anywhere in the constituency, and Gosport is sometimes considered to be the largest town without a train station (although Newcastle-under-Lyme may take that honour). The short distance between Portsmouth and Gosport is most easily travelled by a ferry service every 15 minutes, which doesn't take cars.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 31, 2021 13:02:18 GMT
Something interesting about both the Gosport constituency (including the bits outside the borough) is the odd transport situation. There are no train stations anywhere in the constituency, and Gosport is sometimes considered to be the largest town without a train station (although Newcastle-under-Lyme may take that honour). The short distance between Portsmouth and Gosport is most easily travelled by a ferry service every 15 minutes, which doesn't take cars. Perhaps not unconnected with this (although I have never done much travelling by train) is that this is the only constituency in the South East region that I have not only never visited but have never even transited. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 2, 2021 12:25:59 GMT
Does anyone know what the population of Gosport itself is, if that question makes any sense? Every source I've seen seems to give the population of the borough as a whole. I think it depends on how you define Gosport itself. I know that the former Gosport Municipal Borough before the present one was created in the early 1970s also included communities such as Lee on Solent and Alverstoke. Someone more expert than I on local government boundaries my be able to tell us if the present borough is identical to the old MB; in which case one could argue than its population is that of Gosport itself. However, could anyone with strong local knowledge be able to say what the bounds of the town are generally considered to be? |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Aug 2, 2021 20:19:36 GMT
Something interesting about both the Gosport constituency (including the bits outside the borough) is the odd transport situation. There are no train stations anywhere in the constituency, and Gosport is sometimes considered to be the largest town without a train station (although Newcastle-under-Lyme may take that honour). The short distance between Portsmouth and Gosport is most easily travelled by a ferry service every 15 minutes, which doesn't take cars.
It's one of those transport facts which is technically true but a bit misleading.
Given the frequency and swiftness of the ferry service and the fast mainline trains, Portsmouth Harbour is effectively the station that serves southern Gosport and it's not necessarily less convenient than the situation facing many people in towns that have their own badly-served or inconveniently-located stations. (Northern Gosport residents may be slightly better off getting a bus to Fareham and getting their train from there).
When Gosport had a railway service of its own it was on a branch line off a branch line with several little stations that ultimately connected 'the wrong way' onto the main line at Fareham, with most London-bound passengers requiring a change. It would've been useful for local travel to Southampton etc. but not a lot else.
Of all the 50s and 60s cuts (I think Gosport was actually pre-Beeching) it would be one of the weakest cases for reinstatement - certainly as a heavy rail line. Light rail/tram might be an option, but given how lightly used bus services around there seem to be, I'm not convinced it would be that popular.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 2, 2021 20:21:57 GMT
Something interesting about both the Gosport constituency (including the bits outside the borough) is the odd transport situation. There are no train stations anywhere in the constituency, and Gosport is sometimes considered to be the largest town without a train station (although Newcastle-under-Lyme may take that honour). The short distance between Portsmouth and Gosport is most easily travelled by a ferry service every 15 minutes, which doesn't take cars.
It's one of those transport facts which is technically true but a bit misleading.
Given the frequency and swiftness of the ferry service and the fast mainline trains, Portsmouth Harbour is effectively the station that serves southern Gosport and it's not necessarily less convenient than the situation facing many people in towns that have their own badly-served or inconveniently-located stations. (Northern Gosport residents may be slightly better off getting a bus to Fareham and getting their train from there).
When Gosport had a railway service of its own it was on a branch line off a branch line with several little stations that ultimately connected 'the wrong way' onto the main line at Fareham, with most London-bound passengers requiring a change. It would've been useful for local travel to Southampton etc. but not a lot else.
Of all the 50s and 60s cuts (I think Gosport was actually pre-Beeching) it would be one of the weakest cases for reinstatement - certainly as a heavy rail line. Light rail/tram might be an option, but given how lightly used bus services around there seem to be, I'm not convinced it would be that popular.
If a new station was mooted would it be on a different alignment? Would it be possible? |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Aug 2, 2021 20:34:07 GMT
It's one of those transport facts which is technically true but a bit misleading.
Given the frequency and swiftness of the ferry service and the fast mainline trains, Portsmouth Harbour is effectively the station that serves southern Gosport and it's not necessarily less convenient than the situation facing many people in towns that have their own badly-served or inconveniently-located stations. (Northern Gosport residents may be slightly better off getting a bus to Fareham and getting their train from there).
When Gosport had a railway service of its own it was on a branch line off a branch line with several little stations that ultimately connected 'the wrong way' onto the main line at Fareham, with most London-bound passengers requiring a change. It would've been useful for local travel to Southampton etc. but not a lot else.
Of all the 50s and 60s cuts (I think Gosport was actually pre-Beeching) it would be one of the weakest cases for reinstatement - certainly as a heavy rail line. Light rail/tram might be an option, but given how lightly used bus services around there seem to be, I'm not convinced it would be that popular.
If a new station was mooted would it be on a different alignment? Would it be possible?
The main station itself has been quite respectfully turned into office/housing/retail or something - the last time I was there they were still developing - but preserving a lot of original features. I gather some space was retained to possibly incorporate some sort of transport terminal in the future, though the chance of this being 'proper' heavy railway is negligible.
Some of the old route has been built on, given that the track was all lifted decades ago, even for goods traffic. Rebuilding a junction to connect anything to the main line would be a nightmare as there is nowhere obvious on the main line with space to do it - the line has lots of curves, lots of stations, and passes through a continuous built-up area for miles. So then you're looking at building a whole load of new infrastructure, possibly including tunneling, to connect up somewhere rural where there is space to do so.
And that would be hugely expensive and completely lacking a business case when the ferry to Portsmouth Harbour is a pretty convenient way of getting from Gosport onto a fast London-bound train.
Maybe HS17 will be chosen to serve Gosport?
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Post by tonyhill on Aug 3, 2021 5:31:53 GMT
Getting in and out of Gosport at peak times by road is a nightmare, and there is no easy solution to that either.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 3, 2021 7:19:58 GMT
Something interesting about both the Gosport constituency (including the bits outside the borough) is the odd transport situation. There are no train stations anywhere in the constituency, and Gosport is sometimes considered to be the largest town without a train station (although Newcastle-under-Lyme may take that honour). The short distance between Portsmouth and Gosport is most easily travelled by a ferry service every 15 minutes, which doesn't take cars.
It's one of those transport facts which is technically true but a bit misleading.
Given the frequency and swiftness of the ferry service and the fast mainline trains, Portsmouth Harbour is effectively the station that serves southern Gosport and it's not necessarily less convenient than the situation facing many people in towns that have their own badly-served or inconveniently-located stations. (Northern Gosport residents may be slightly better off getting a bus to Fareham and getting their train from there).
When Gosport had a railway service of its own it was on a branch line off a branch line with several little stations that ultimately connected 'the wrong way' onto the main line at Fareham, with most London-bound passengers requiring a change. It would've been useful for local travel to Southampton etc. but not a lot else.
Of all the 50s and 60s cuts (I think Gosport was actually pre-Beeching) it would be one of the weakest cases for reinstatement - certainly as a heavy rail line. Light rail/tram might be an option, but given how lightly used bus services around there seem to be, I'm not convinced it would be that popular.
Fair point, although still a peculiarity - how many other places have good access to the rail network providing you take a ferry?
(Thinking about it, Torpoint is one. Maybe Hythe in Hampshire, or even Yarmouth on the Isle of Wight. But all an order of magnitude smaller than Gosport) |
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 3, 2021 7:29:52 GMT
It's one of those transport facts which is technically true but a bit misleading.
Given the frequency and swiftness of the ferry service and the fast mainline trains, Portsmouth Harbour is effectively the station that serves southern Gosport and it's not necessarily less convenient than the situation facing many people in towns that have their own badly-served or inconveniently-located stations. (Northern Gosport residents may be slightly better off getting a bus to Fareham and getting their train from there).
When Gosport had a railway service of its own it was on a branch line off a branch line with several little stations that ultimately connected 'the wrong way' onto the main line at Fareham, with most London-bound passengers requiring a change. It would've been useful for local travel to Southampton etc. but not a lot else.
Of all the 50s and 60s cuts (I think Gosport was actually pre-Beeching) it would be one of the weakest cases for reinstatement - certainly as a heavy rail line. Light rail/tram might be an option, but given how lightly used bus services around there seem to be, I'm not convinced it would be that popular.
Fair point, although still a peculiarity - how many other places have good access to the rail network providing you take a ferry?
(Thinking about it, Torpoint is one. Maybe Hythe in Hampshire, or even Yarmouth on the Isle of Wight. But all an order of magnitude smaller than Gosport) Depending on how you define good, Cowes. You have to walk across Southampton city centre to make the connection or take a shuttle bus. And depending on how you define rail network, Ryde would be another contender (it has a railway line but not one physically connected to the rest of the network). There are also loads in Scotland - mostly these are small places on islands, but also the town of Dunoon on the mainland (accessed via Gourock). |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Aug 3, 2021 8:25:18 GMT
Fair point, although still a peculiarity - how many other places have good access to the rail network providing you take a ferry? (Thinking about it, Torpoint is one. Maybe Hythe in Hampshire, or even Yarmouth on the Isle of Wight. But all an order of magnitude smaller than Gosport) Depending on how you define good, Cowes. You have to walk across Southampton city centre to make the connection or take a shuttle bus. And depending on how you define rail network, Ryde would be another contender (it has a railway line but not one physically connected to the rest of the network). There are also loads in Scotland - mostly these are small places on islands, but also the town of Dunoon on the mainland (accessed via Gourock). Dartmouth is the classic one, actually had a railway station but no railway. |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Aug 3, 2021 16:02:14 GMT
Fair point, although still a peculiarity - how many other places have good access to the rail network providing you take a ferry?
(Thinking about it, Torpoint is one. Maybe Hythe in Hampshire, or even Yarmouth on the Isle of Wight. But all an order of magnitude smaller than Gosport) Depending on how you define good, Cowes. You have to walk across Southampton city centre to make the connection or take a shuttle bus. And depending on how you define rail network, Ryde would be another contender (it has a railway line but not one physically connected to the rest of the network). There are also loads in Scotland - mostly these are small places on islands, but also the town of Dunoon on the mainland (accessed via Gourock).
Yes, Ryde is essentially the same as Gosport, albeit with a slightly longer and massively overpriced crossing. I wonder how many people living in Ryde actually use the Island line to travel South on a regular basis? (As opposed to people visiting the Island who have come over on the ferry from Portsmouth who continue their journey).
I still regret not having one last ride on the 1938 tube stock, obviously...
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 3, 2021 16:14:12 GMT
Depending on how you define good, Cowes. You have to walk across Southampton city centre to make the connection or take a shuttle bus. And depending on how you define rail network, Ryde would be another contender (it has a railway line but not one physically connected to the rest of the network). There are also loads in Scotland - mostly these are small places on islands, but also the town of Dunoon on the mainland (accessed via Gourock).
Yes, Ryde is essentially the same as Gosport, albeit with a slightly longer and massively overpriced crossing. I wonder how many people living in Ryde actually use the Island line to travel South on a regular basis? (As opposed to people visiting the Island who have come over on the ferry from Portsmouth who continue their journey).
I still regret not having one last ride on the 1938 tube stock, obviously...
When I was in Ryde last year I noticed the trains were relatively quiet, but the parallel buses were much busier. Routes 2 and 3 both follow the railway line through Ryde, Brading, Sandown, and Shanklin before continuing direct to Newport (route 2) or to Ventnor and then Newport (route 3). The buses are more frequent (every 15 minutes where the routes combine), run more directly into the town centres and housing estates, and I think that's why they take most of the traffic. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Aug 4, 2021 12:31:10 GMT
Something interesting about both the Gosport constituency (including the bits outside the borough) is the odd transport situation. There are no train stations anywhere in the constituency, and Gosport is sometimes considered to be the largest town without a train station (although Newcastle-under-Lyme may take that honour). The short distance between Portsmouth and Gosport is most easily travelled by a ferry service every 15 minutes, which doesn't take cars.
It's one of those transport facts which is technically true but a bit misleading.
Given the frequency and swiftness of the ferry service and the fast mainline trains, Portsmouth Harbour is effectively the station that serves southern Gosport and it's not necessarily less convenient than the situation facing many people in towns that have their own badly-served or inconveniently-located stations. (Northern Gosport residents may be slightly better off getting a bus to Fareham and getting their train from there).
When Gosport had a railway service of its own it was on a branch line off a branch line with several little stations that ultimately connected 'the wrong way' onto the main line at Fareham, with most London-bound passengers requiring a change. It would've been useful for local travel to Southampton etc. but not a lot else.
Of all the 50s and 60s cuts (I think Gosport was actually pre-Beeching) it would be one of the weakest cases for reinstatement - certainly as a heavy rail line. Light rail/tram might be an option, but given how lightly used bus services around there seem to be, I'm not convinced it would be that popular.
Light rail was investigated and proposed as part of a South Hants Rapid Transit system, but rejected by the Treasury because of funding concerns. There was a short section of bus rapid transit built on the trackbed between Gosport and Fareham instead, which is operated by First South Hants under the name Eclipse. Unfortunately, the wider scheme including much needed rapid transit connections between Pompey/Waterlooville never came to fruition in any form I believe. |
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