Summary of Local Council results - June 2021 to April 2022

[yellowperil]

I notice we haven't had an update on this invaluable work since November last year. I appreciate@middleenglander has other calls on his time, but just to say  December/January will be greatly appreciated when it comes ( as will February, but that will have to wait a fair bit longer, obvs)

My main alternative source of such a summary comes from the gospel according to Mark, if you know what I mean, but dare I say middleenglander does it better.

[middleenglander]

There were 30 by-elections during December 2021 with 19 (63%) changing hands.  The results can be summarised by:

Party	Seats     contested	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	30	21	6	2	15	8	29%
Labour	26	5	4	4	1	8	80%
Liberal Democrat	21	1	0	7	1	7	0%
SNP	1			1		1
Plaid Cymru	1
Green	17			3		3
Yorkshire	2
Localist	5	1	1			1	100%
Independent	10	2	0	2	2	2	0%
No Description	2
TUSC	1
Workers	1
Libertarian	1
Total	118	30	11	19	19	30	37%

Conservatives contested all 30 seats.
Labour did not contest 4 seats: Argyll & Bute: Lomond North (Conservative hold), Highland: Fort William & Ardnamurchan (SNP gain from Conservative), Tonbridge & Malling: Kings Hill (Conservative hold) and Wealden: Hartfield (Green gain from Conservative)
Liberal Democrats did not contest 9 seats: 
- 2 where Labour were also not contesting: Argyll & Bute: Lomond North (Conservative hold) and Wealden: Hartfield (Green gain from Conservative)
- 2 where Labour were defending:  Bridgend: Caerau (Independent gain) and Walsall Pleck Labour hold but then disqualified because ineligible to stand
- 5 defended by Conservatives: Adur: Hillside (Conservative hold) , Ashford: Highfield (Green gain), Bracknell Forest: Old Bracknell (Labour gain), Lichfield: Armitage & Handsacre (Conservative hold) and  Tonbridge & Malling: Castle (Green gain) 
There were 10 Independents contesting 7 seats.

Conservatives gained 2 seats but lost 15 - 7 to Liberal Democrats, 3 to Labour, 3 to Green and 1 each to SNP and an Independent
- gained North Norfolk: Stalham from a Liberal Democrat and Torridge: Northram from an Independent
- lost to Liberal Democrats in Horsham: Rothley South, Lancaster: Bare, Lancaster: Upper Lune Valley, Northumberland: Hexham East, Rotherham: Anston & Woodsetts, Tonbridge & Malling: West Malling & Leybourne and West Lindsey: Nettleham
- lost to Labour in Bracknall: Old Bracknall, Rotherham: Aughton & Swallowfields and Worthing: Marine
- lost to Green in Ashford: Highfield, Tonbridge & Malling: Castle and Wealden: Hartfield
- lost Highland: Fort William & Ardnamurchan to SNP and New Forest: Bransgore & Burley to an Independent.

Labour gained the 3 seats from Conservative along with Middlesbrough: North Ormesby from an Independent
- but lost Bridgend: Caerau to an Independent

Liberal Democrats gained 7 seats from Conservative but then losing Norfolk: Stalham to a Conservative

SNP gained Highlands: Fort William & Ardnmurchan from a Conservative

Independents gained New Forest: Bransgore & Burley from Conservative and Bridgend: Caerau from Labour
- but lost Torridge: Northram to a Conservative and Middlesbrough: North Ormesby to Labour

[middleenglander]

There were 171 by-elections for 175 seats in the June to December 2021 period (excluding 4 countermanded elections due in May) with 82 (47%) changing hands; this was at a higher rate than the circa 30% normal. The results can be summarised by:

Party	Seats     contested	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	172	68	34	25	34	59	50%
Labour	149	47	30	14	17	44	64%
Liberal Democrat	131	25	18	18	7	36	72%
SNP	9	2		3	2	3	0%
Plaid Cymru	7	2	2	1		3	100%
Green	105	2	2	11		13	100%
UKIP	2	1			1		0%
Localist *	23	9	4	2	5	6	44%
Independent ^	59	17	1	8	16	9	7%
No Description	7	1	1			1	100%
Liberal	3	1	1			1	100%
TUSC	12
For Britain	3
Reform	8
Women's Equality	2
Independence for Scotland	3
Other **	9
Total	704	175	93	82	82	175	57%

^ 59 Independent candidates contested 46 seats in 45 by-elections
* Ashford Independent, Aspire, Bolton for Change, City Independents, Community Residents (2), Leigh West Independent, Lincolnshire Independents (2), Morecambe Bay Independent, North East, Nottingham Independents (2), Putting Cumbria First, Residents of Cuddington, Residents of Wilmslow, Rotherham Democrats (2), Tunbridge Wells Alliance, Whitnash Residents and Yorkshire (3)
** Communist (2), Libertarian (3), Socialist (1), Taking Initiative (1) and Workers (2)

Conservatives have contested 98% of the seats (all but 3), Labour 85%, Liberal Democrats 75% and Greens 60%.

Conservatives gained 8 seats from Labour, 6 from Independents, 5 from Liberal Democrats, 2 from SNP and 4 from localists
whilst losing 14 seats to Liberal Democrats, 9 to Greens, 5 to Labour, 4 to Independent and 1 each to SNP and a localist.

Labour gained 6 seats from Independents, 5 from Conservatives along with 1 each from Liberal Democrats, UKIP and a localist
whilst losing the 8 seats to Conservatives, 4 to Independents, 2 to SNP and 1 seat to each Liberal Democrats, Green and Aspire

Liberal Democrats gained the 14 seats from Conservatives, 3 from Independents and 1 from Labour
whilst losing 5 to Conservatives and 1 each to Labour and a Green, with the Liberal Democrats not contesting the latter seat in the by-election

SNP gained 2 seats from Labour  and 1 from a Conservative but lost 2 seats to Conservatives

Plaid Cymru gained a seat from an Independent in Gwynedd

Greens gained the 9 seats from Conservatives and 1 each from Labour and a Liberal Democrat

Independents gained 4 seats from both  Conservatives and Labour whilst losing 6 to both Conservatives and Labour, 3 to Liberal Democrats and 1 to Plaid Cymru

Localist gained 1 seat (Aspire in Tower Hamlets) from Labour and 1 from a Conservative Tunbridge Wells: Spledhurst & Bidborough 
but lost 4 seats to a Conservative (2 Lincolnshire Independents in North Kesteven,  City Independents in Stoke and Independent Community & Health Concern in Wyre Forest) along with 1 seat to Labour (Heath & Birchgrove Independent in Cardiff).

[middleenglander]

There were 9 by-elections for 10 seats during January 2022 with 3 seats (30%) changing hands.  The results can be summarised by:

Party	Seats     contested	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	9	5	4	1	1	5	80%
Labour	8	4	3		1	3	75%
Liberal Democrat	8			1		1
SNP	1
Green	8			1		1
Independent	3
No description	1
Yorkshire		1			1		0%
Total	38	10	7	3	3	10	70%

Conservatives had only one candidate for the two seats being contested in Charnwood: Loughborough Skelthorpe
Labour did not contest East Lindsey: Chapel St Leonards (Conservative hold) or Wychavon: The Littletons (Green gain from Conservative)
Liberal Democrats did not contest East Lindsey: Chapel St Leonards (Conservative hold) or Selby: Byram & Brotherton (Conservative gain from Yorkshire Party)

Conservatives gained Selby: Byram & Brotherton from Yorkshire Party but lost Wychavon: The Littletons to Green
Labour lost Gedling: Cavendish to Liberal Democrats
Liberal Democrats gained Gedling: Cavendish from Labour
Green gained Wychavon: The Littletons from Conservative
Yorkshire Party lost Selby: Byram & Brotherton to Conservative

[middleenglander]

There were 25 by-elections during February 2022 with 10 (40%) changing hands.  The results can be summarised by:

Party	Seats     contested	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	25	11	8	3	3	11	73%
Labour	22	3	2	3	1	5	67%
Liberal Democrat	18	4	3	4	1	7	75%
Green	13	1	1			1	100%
Independent	7	6	1		5	1	17%
Freedom Alliance	1
For Britain	1
Reform	1
SDP	1
TUSC	3
No Description	1
Total	93	25	15	10	10	25	60%

There were 7 Independents contesting 6 seats

Conservatives gained 3 seats, 2 from Independents and 1 from Liberal Democrat, but lost 3 , 2 to Liberal Democrats and 1 To Labour
* gained Newark & Sherwood: Collingham and West Devon: Tavistock North from Independents who did not defend both the seats
* gained Oadby & Wigston: Wigston Meadowcourt from a Liberal Democrat
* lost North Northamptonshire: Oundle and Wealden: Hailsham South to Liberal Democrats
* lost Spelthorne: Stanwell North to Labour

Labour gained 3 seats, 2 from Independents and 1 from a Conservative, but lost 1 to a Liberal Democrat
* gained Allerdale: Stainburn & Clifton from an Independent who did not defend the seat and Durham: Ferryhill also from an Independent
* gained Spelthorne: Stanwell North from a Conservative
* lost Manchester:  Ancoats & Beswick to a Liberal Democrat

Liberal Democrats gained 4 seats, 2 from Conservative, 1 from Labour and 1 from an Independent, whilst losing 1 to a Conservative
* gained North Northamptonshire: Oundle and Wealden: Hailsham South from Conservatives
* gained Manchester: Ancoats & Beswick from Labour
* gained Somerset West & Taunton from an Independent
* lost Oadby & Wigston Meadowcourt to a Conservative

Independents lost 5 seats, 3 where they did not contest the seat they were defnding
* lost Newark & Sherwood: Collingham and West Devon: Tavistock North to Conservatives in seats they did not defend
* lost Allerdale: Stainburn & Clifton to Labour where they did not defend the seat and Durham: Ferryhill also to Labour
* lost Somerset West & Taunton to a Liberal Democrat

[middleenglander]

There were 34 by-elections for 35 seats in January and February 2022 with 13 (37%) changing hands; this was still at a higher rate than the circa 30% normal. The results can be summarised by:

Party	Seats     contested	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	34	16	12	4	4	16	75%
Labour	30	7	5	3	2	8	71%
Liberal Democrat	26	4	3	5	1	8	75%
SNP	1
Green	21	1	1	1		2	100%
Independent ^	10	6	1		5	1	17%
No Description	2
TUSC	3
For Britain	1
Freedom Alliance	1
Reform	1
SDP	1
Yorkshire		1			1		0%
Total	131	35	22	13	13	35	63%

^ There were 10 Independent candidates contesting 9 by-elections

Conservatives have contested 97% of the seats (all but one), Labour 86%, Liberal Democrats 74% and Greens 60%.

Conservatives gained 2 seats from Independents and 1 each from a Liberal Democrat and Yorkshire Party
whilst losing 2 seats to Liberal Democrats and 1 each to Labour and a Green

Labour gained 2 seats from Independents and 1 from Conservatives
whilst losing the 2 seats to Liberal Democrats

Liberal Democrats gained the 2 seats from both Conservatives and Labour along with 1 from an Independent
whilst losing 1 to a Conservative 

Greens gained 1 seat from a Conservatives

Independents lost 2 seats to both Conservatives and Labour along with 1 to Liberal Democrats

The Yorkshire Party did not defend a seat gained by the Conservatives

[middleenglander]

There were 19 by-elections during March 2022, with 5 (26%) changing hands.  The results can be summarised by:

Party	Seats     contested	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	19	7	5	1	2	6	71%
Labour	14	2	2	1		3	100%
Liberal Democrat	14	7	7	1		8	100%
Green	9			1		1
Independent ^	5	1		1	1	1	0%
Its Our County		1			1
Thanet Independent	1						0%
Yorkshire	2
UKIP	1	1			1		0%
Christian People	2
No Description	1
Total	68	19	14	5	5	19	74%

^ There were 5 Independents contesting 4 seats

Conservatives gained a seat from an Independent but lost a seat each to a Liberal Democrat and a Green:
* gained East Lindsey: Halton Holgate, a single member ward,  in a straight contest with Labour where an Independent did not defend the seat
* lost Rutland: Ryhall & Casterton, a two member ward, in a straight contest with a Green
* lost South Somerset: Neroche, a single member ward, in a straight contest with a Liberal Democrat

Labour gained Sunderland: Redhill from UKIP to hold all three seats again
Liberal Democrats gained South Somerset: Neroche from a Conservative
Greens gained Rutland: Ryhall & Casterton from a Conservative
Independents lost East Lindsey: Halton Holgate to a Conservative
- but gained Herefordshire: Bromyard West, a single member division, from the localist group Its Our County
UKIP lost Sunderland: Redhill to Labour
The localist Its Our County lost Herefordshire: Bromyard West to an Independent not backed by the localists.

[middleenglander]

There were 53 by-elections for 54 seats in the January to March 2022 period with 18 (33%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by:

Party	Seats     contested	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	53	23	17	5	6	22	74%
Labour	44	9	7	4	2	11	78%
Liberal Democrat	40	11	10	6	1	16	91%
SNP	1
Green	30	1	1	2		3	100%
Independent ^	15	7	1	1	6	2	14%
Localist groups	1	1			1		0%
UKIP	1	1			1		0%
Christian People	2
No Description	3
TUSC	3
Yorkshire	2	1			1		0%
Other ^^	4
Total	199	54	36	18	18	54	67%

^ There were 15 Independent candidates contesting 13 by-elections

^^ For Britain (1), Freedom Alliance (1), Reform (1), SDP (1)

Conservatives have contested 98% of the seats (all but one), Labour 81%, Liberal Democrats 74% and Greens 56%.

Conservatives gained 3 seats from Independents and 1 each from a Liberal Democrat and Yorkshire Party
whilst losing 3 seats to Liberal Democrats, 2 to Greens and 1 to Labour

Labour gained 2 seats from Independents and 1 each from Conservatives and UKIP
whilst losing the 2 seats to Liberal Democrats

Liberal Democrats gained the 3 seats from both Conservatives, 2 from Labour along with 1 from an Independent
whilst losing 1 to a Conservative 

Greens gained 2 seats from a Conservatives

Independents lost 3 seats to Conservatives, 2 to Labour along with 1 to Liberal Democrats but gained 1 from a localist group in Herefordshire

UKIP lost a seat to Labour, a local group lost a seat to an Independent  whilst the Yorkshire Party did not defend a seat which was gained by a Conservative.

[middleenglander]

There are 13 by-elections in April 2022 with 8 (62%) seats changing hands.

Party	Seats     contested	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	13	5		1	5	1	0%
Labour	10	5	4	1	1	5	80%
Liberal Democrat	9			4		4
Green	6			2		2
Independent ^	4	2			2		0%
No Description	1	1	1			1	100%
Liberal	1
TUSC	1
Total	45	13	5	8	8	13	38%

^ There were 4 Independents contesting 3 seats

Conservative gain 1 seat but lost all 5 being defended - 2 each to Liberal Democrats and green along with 1 to Labour:
* gained High Peak: Cote Heath from Labour
* lost Durham: West Auckland to Labour
* lost East Yorkshire: South Hunsley and Surrey Heath: Bisley & West End to Liberal Democrats
* lost Dorset: Lyme & Charmouth and Horsham: Storrington & Washington to Greens

Labour lost High Peak: Cote Heath to a Conservative but gained Durham: West Auckland in exchange

Liberal Democrats gained 2 seats from Conservatives and another 2 from Independents
* gained East Yorkshire: South Hunsley and Surrey Heath: Bisley & West End from Conservatives
* gained Maldon: Heybridge West and Mid Devon: Cullompton South from Independents

Green gained Dorset: Lyme & Charmouth and Horsham: Storrington & Washington from Conservatives

Independents lost Maldon: Heybridge West and Mid Devon: Cullompton South to Liberal Democrats

[polupolu]

One thing strikes me about these summaries: The Conservative party has found a candidate for very nearly every council by-election that has been fought, no matter what its standing in the polls has been. That suggests their local organisations are still strong and there is still enthusiasm amongst their members.

I wonder if that means they will do better in May than people expect.

[andrewp]

Apr 27, 2022 10:15:30 GMT polupolu said:

One thing strikes me about these summaries: The Conservative party has found a candidate for very nearly every council by-election that has been fought, no matter what its standing in the polls has been. That suggests their local organisations are still strong and there is still enthusiasm amongst their members.

I wonder if that means they will do better in May than people expect.

The Conservatives do seem to do better at finding candidates for hopeless wards than Labour or the Lib Dems do. 

In terms of organisation, I am really surprised that in Somerset I have had more leaflets from the Conservatives than the Lib Dems. That’s never happened before, I am now in a ward that I think is safe Lib Dem, so perhaps the Lib Dems are being more sensible with resources than the Conservatives. 

[greenchristian]

Apr 27, 2022 10:45:59 GMT andrewp said:

Apr 27, 2022 10:15:30 GMT polupolu said:

One thing strikes me about these summaries: The Conservative party has found a candidate for very nearly every council by-election that has been fought, no matter what its standing in the polls has been. That suggests their local organisations are still strong and there is still enthusiasm amongst their members.

I wonder if that means they will do better in May than people expect.

The Conservatives do seem to do better at finding candidates for hopeless wards than Labour or the Lib Dems do.

Hopeless wards for the Conservatives are almost all in urban areas, where wards have larger populations and are both geographically smaller and well-connected. Hopeless wards for Labour are often rural wards which are the opposite. And the Lib Dems have a smaller membership than Labour or the Tories. So we should expect the Conservatives to do better at finding candidates for hopeless wards than Labour or the Conservatives.

[yellowperil]

Now we are into July 2022 I  am looking forward to seeing a new edition of these summaries  for June2022 (and maybe a few for May after the the main election week). I understand there has always been a strict exclusion of postponed / countermanded elections- I did wonder whether a separate summary of such elections should be recorded somewhere as they can also be quite interesting.

One other point- there was discussion here recently about how much better the Tories are at finding candidates where others might justgive up. Recently maybe one or two signs tha grip may be weakening?

[The Bishop]

Jul 3, 2022 21:38:25 GMT yellowperil said:

One other point- there was discussion here recently about how much better the Tories are at finding candidates where others might justgive up. Recently maybe one or two signs tha grip may be weakening?

I never took this supposed candidate discrepancy too seriously, given the - usually informal - "progressive alliances" that are forming at local level.

But it has been noted that the coming month has Labour fielding a full slate of candidates, and the Tories not. When was the last time that happened?

[greenchristian]

Jul 5, 2022 11:44:58 GMT The Bishop said:

Jul 3, 2022 21:38:25 GMT yellowperil said:

One other point- there was discussion here recently about how much better the Tories are at finding candidates where others might justgive up. Recently maybe one or two signs tha grip may be weakening?

I never took this supposed candidate discrepancy too seriously, given the - usually informal - "progressive alliances" that are forming at local level.

As I think I said in that discussion, the places Conservatives are weaker tend to be large urban areas which have larger ward sizes (meaning you need fewer candidates relative to the population size), are better connected (meaning you don't have to travel to remote areas to collect signatures), have more employment (meaning that if you are stuck for local candidates you can more easily find someone who works there but lives in the next council over), and have more diverse populations (hence they are more likely to have a few members, even if the council looks monolithically Labour). The places Labour are weak have the opposite trends, and nobody else has enough membership to compete with them. Which means that we should expect the Conservatives to be better at finding candidates than anyone else is.

[yellowperil]

middleenglander - I am still wondering if you intend to continue these invaluable summaries - none as yet for this election year 2022/3. If you have decided to retire from providing this service maybe somebody else would take it up? ( I would have loved to offer but don't think I could be relied on at present).

[middleenglander]

Jul 30, 2022 12:43:35 GMT yellowperil said:

middleenglander - I am still wondering if you intend to continue these invaluable summaries - none as yet for this election year 2022/3. If you have decided to retire from providing this service maybe somebody else would take it up? ( I would have loved to offer but don't think I could be relied on at present).

Plan to do an analysis of the 53 by-elections (not including deferred and the 3 Scottish Island elections) at the end of August.