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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 12, 2016 17:13:26 GMT
The state of French politics these days probably Le Pen would be the least fascist candidate on the ballot in the event of Le Pen/Sarkozy runoff... Would you vote Le Pen in those circumstances I personally would be tempted to vote for MLP. She'd be lumbered with a hostile assembly. Sarkozy is a tribute act and seemingly devoid of any economic ideas. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 12, 2016 17:21:48 GMT
Well, the vast majority of uncounted votes are concentrated in a small number of states. That the tally isn't finalized in the 40+ others is a bit irrelevant as the changes will be negligible. 30 all The ball was on the line. Chalk flew up. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 12, 2016 17:35:09 GMT
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 12, 2016 17:41:56 GMT
The state of French politics these days probably Le Pen would be the least fascist candidate on the ballot in the event of Le Pen/Sarkozy runoff... Would you vote Le Pen in those circumstances I think I would reflect on the fact that that's what spoiled ballots are for. But then in France can you actually cast one of those? I seem to remember that they have separate ballots for each candidate. I'm sure there's a way round that... |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 12, 2016 17:43:23 GMT
It may be that the resources the Clinton campaign devoted to Arizona effectively cost her the election. Not just Arizona; the entire Democratic strategy was based on gaining states because THE FIREWALL was safe even though polling leads were never solid in many. It has been reported that Clinton last visited Wisconsin in April... |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 12, 2016 17:45:07 GMT
Would you vote Le Pen in those circumstances I think I would reflect on the fact that that's what spoiled ballots are for. But then in France can you actually cast one of those? I seem to remember that they have separate ballots for each candidate. I'm sure there's a way round that... According to Wikipedia there was 701,190 (1.92%) spoilt and null votes in the 1st round in 2012 and 2,154,956 (5.82%) in the second. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 12, 2016 17:46:22 GMT
Dieu merci!
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 12, 2016 17:49:54 GMT
The state of French politics these days probably Le Pen would be the least fascist candidate on the ballot in the event of Le Pen/Sarkozy runoff... Would you vote Le Pen in those circumstances I would not use Le Pencil to vote for Le Pen. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 12, 2016 18:00:28 GMT
Why Clinton lost Wisconsin and Michigan:
Wisconsin: Clinton is 27,257 votes behind. In Milwaukee County, Democrat votes have dropped from 332,438 to 288,986, a drop of 43,452.
Michigan: she's 11,837 votes behind. In Wayne County, Democrat votes have dropped from 595,846 to 517,022, a drop of 78,824.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 12, 2016 18:02:27 GMT
It may be that the resources the Clinton campaign devoted to Arizona effectively cost her the election. Not just Arizona; the entire Democratic strategy was based on gaining states because THE FIREWALL was safe even though polling leads were never solid in many. It has been reported that Clinton last visited Wisconsin in April... You have to assume that their own internal polling showed Wisconsin as safe and that the apparent accuracy of Democratic internal polling in 2012 led them to trust the numbers they were seeing. They obviously got spooked by some numbers from Michigan late in the day hence some final weekend campaigning there. I don't think there is any doubt that those two states could have been saved with just a bit more effort as Democratic turnout in Milwaukee and Detroit was pretty poor. Pennsylvania is a different matter as Clinton did campaign hard for it and Democratic turnout in Philadelphia was good. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 12, 2016 18:05:03 GMT
Would you vote Le Pen in those circumstances I would not use Le Pencil to vote for Le Pen. Top fact. If you translate Jean-Marie Le Pen from French and Breton, it means John-Mary The Head. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 12, 2016 18:13:05 GMT
Why Clinton lost Wisconsin and Michigan: Wisconsin: Clinton is 27,257 votes behind. In Milwaukee County, Democrat votes have dropped from 332,438 to 288,986, a drop of 43,452. Michigan: she's 11,837 votes behind. In Wayne County, Democrat votes have dropped from 595,846 to 517,022, a drop of 78,824. Clinton also under polled Obama in Colorado and Virginia, two states that she barely campaigned in because they were thought to be in the bag. The very clear pattern is that Democratic turnout was solid in states where Clinton campaigned, and ultra safe blue states, but suffered in vaguely competitive states where she didn't campaign much. In contrast the GOP vote largely came out across the board, despite Trump's pretty laughable campaign infrastructure. |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Nov 12, 2016 19:58:10 GMT
It may be that the resources the Clinton campaign devoted to Arizona effectively cost her the election. Not just Arizona; the entire Democratic strategy was based on gaining states because THE FIREWALL was safe even though polling leads were never solid in many. It has been reported that Clinton last visited Wisconsin in April... After this election, I don't think the "Blue Firewall" can even be considered a thing anymore... |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 13, 2016 1:31:53 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 13, 2016 2:40:48 GMT
This time all SenateRaces ended with the same WinningParty as in the Presidential one.
With Trump carrying 30/50, Democrats could face a dire prospect in the nearer future.?
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right
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Post by right on Nov 13, 2016 7:08:17 GMT
Why Clinton lost Wisconsin and Michigan: Wisconsin: Clinton is 27,257 votes behind. In Milwaukee County, Democrat votes have dropped from 332,438 to 288,986, a drop of 43,452. Michigan: she's 11,837 votes behind. In Wayne County, Democrat votes have dropped from 595,846 to 517,022, a drop of 78,824. Could there be a case that we're reducing this too much to low Democratic turnout? Trump clearly turned off a lot of habitual Republicans, while winning over working class and lower middle class white Democrats and non voters. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 13, 2016 10:37:17 GMT
This time all SenateRaces ended with the same WinningParty as in the Presidential one. With Trump carrying 30/50, Democrats could face a dire prospect in the nearer future.? As already mentioned, first time this has ever happened. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 13, 2016 10:46:41 GMT
Why Clinton lost Wisconsin and Michigan: Wisconsin: Clinton is 27,257 votes behind. In Milwaukee County, Democrat votes have dropped from 332,438 to 288,986, a drop of 43,452. Michigan: she's 11,837 votes behind. In Wayne County, Democrat votes have dropped from 595,846 to 517,022, a drop of 78,824. Could there be a case that we're reducing this too much to low Democratic turnout? Trump clearly turned off a lot of habitual Republicans, while winning over working class and lower middle class white Democrats and non voters. The GOP vote was also down in Milwaukee County and only up by about 15,000 in Wayne County. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 13, 2016 10:55:14 GMT
This time all SenateRaces ended with the same WinningParty as in the Presidential one. With Trump carrying 30/50, Democrats could face a dire prospect in the nearer future.? In fairness this was a statistical fluke. Trump carried Missouri by 19 points while Blunt only won by 3 points. Conversely Ohio was won by Trump with an 8.5 point margin while Portman won by 21 points. If these, and several other races, different results for Presidential and Senate races was a clear possibility. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 13, 2016 13:11:12 GMT
This time all SenateRaces ended with the same WinningParty as in the Presidential one. With Trump carrying 30/50, Democrats could face a dire prospect in the nearer future.? In fairness this was a statistical fluke. Trump carried Missouri by 19 points while Blunt only won by 3 points. Conversely Ohio was won by Trump with an 8.5 point margin while Portman won by 21 points. If these, and several other races, different results for Presidential and Senate races was a clear possibility. Even so those differences aren't huge compared to past patters (or rather lack of patterns) and you've probably picked two states where the two votes diverged more than most. There's clearly a growing tendency for congressional elections to ape Presidential voting patterns. Look back at 2008 you had Democrat Senators winning massively in states like Montana and South Dakota while the republicans won easily in Maine. Maybe this is a one-off but it looks to me like the voting patterns are starting to converge. OF course this may not be so much of an issue in 2018 when obviously there won't be a Presidential elecion on the same day so local and incumbency factors will carry more weight and of course in 2020 the Democrat defences are nearly all in solid blue states |
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