Post by Robert Waller on Jul 7, 2021 22:08:40 GMT
There are some parts of rural England that offer plenty of evidence, even if they have not been popular holiday and second home ‘destinations’ such as the Cotswolds, as to why it is such a conservative country – and now, indeed Conservative, outside the big cities. This applies to the north western quadrant of Hampshire: soft rolling chalky hills, douce river valleys such as that of the Test, with its fly fishing, and small towns and attractive villages with names like Hurstbourne Tarrant and Penton Bellinger. This neck of the woods has become better known and more visited over the last decade or so because it also includes the main location of the popular series Downton Abbey, set in the Yorkshire of around a century ago, but actually filmed here, at Highclere Castle.
North West Hampshire since its creation in 1983 has been made up of some rural parts of the western half of Basingstoke and Deane borough, and the northern part of the Test Valley, centred on the town of Andover. Andover was one of the communities chosen to expand to take in London overspill in the post-war years, and in the two decades after 1961 the population of this once sleepy town doubled. The proportion of council houses trebled in the 1960s. Clearly there was a potential Labour vote in the newer northern half of Andover, but it never really materialised. It would seem that an ‘environmental effect’ meant that the migrant voters attuned more to the political traditions of their new surroundings than their origins. Andover’s population then stabilized, remaining at around 50,000 including the whole of its built up area since 1981, and a substantial amount of the council housing was sold off; by the time of the 2011 census only 16% of the housing in NW Hampshire was in the social rented sector. Labour moved up to second here ahead of the Liberal Democrats for the first time in 2001, but never really challenged for the lead, remaining 12,009 behind. That is the narrowest lead the Tories have had in the 21st century, with Labour, the Liberal Democrats and also UKIP (in 2015) taking turns to finish a distant second.
In 2019 the Conservative share remained exactly stable, at a very comfortable 62.1% as in 2017. However there was a swing of nearly eight per cent from Labour (down 7.7%) to Liberal Democrat (up 7.8%). This may owe something to a ‘Corbyn effect’ and to attitude to Brexit, although NW Hampshire is estimated to have voted about 55% Leave to 45% Remain in 2016. In any case Kit Malthouse increased his majority still further to 26,308, both because of the split nature of the opposition and to the great inherent Conservative strength. This is not a seat of particularly high educational qualifications – the 28.3% with degrees at the last available census is slightly below the south eastern regional average, those with no qualifications very close to that average, and it is in bottom decile for full time students. Nor is it in the top 100 for professional and managerial occupations. But none of these factors would have hurt the Tories in the circumstances of 2019, and as outlined above this is a very conservative part of the land, and with good reason. Health is good, ethnic homogeneity very high indeed for the South East region, unemployment low, social strife rare.
In local elections the Conservatives won every division within the constituency easily in May 2021, including all those in Andover town. In May 2019 in the most recent borough council elections, they were beaten by the Andover Alliance in some urban wards of Test Valley, but the Liberal Democrat strength was all at the southern end of the borough in the Romsey & Southampton North constituency. In the most recent council elections in the wards within Basingstoke and Deane, the Conservatives won almost all by wide margins, losing only to the Liberal Democrats in 2019 in Baughurst & Tadley North and on what appears to be a personal vote to Labour in the ward of Overton, Laverstoke & Steventon.
There was a ward allocated to the North West Hampshire constituency under its first three sets of boundaries called Alamein. This is because the village of Enham just north of Andover was the site of a recovery centre for wounded soldiers after the Great War, and the name of the key North African battle was appended to create Enham Alamein after World War Two. Alamein ward’s last contest in 2015, before ward revisions, was not a close run thing, with the Conservatives taking all three of its seats with over twice the share of any other party. This pattern is replicated in the parliamentary battle in NW Hampshire. In December 2019 the electorate of the seats was 83,000, oversized for the quota applied by the latest boundary commission, so initial proposals suggest transferring some rural wards south and west of Andover to Romsey & Southampton North, while making smaller additions to ensure that the whole of Tadley, the second largest community in the seat, is to be included here in future. In that future, NW Hampshire is highly likely to remain one of the most solid Conservative strongholds in the whole of England.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 17.2% 284/650
Owner-occupied 68.8% 252/650
Private rented 12.4% 438/650
Social rented 16.3% 312/650
White 96.7% 248/650
Black 0.4% 395/650
Asian 1.4% 434/650
Managerial & professional 37.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 23.1%
Degree level 28.3% 228/650
No qualifications 18.9% 503/650
Students 5.3% 611/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 69.5% 186/573
Private rented 14.2% 468/573
Social rented 16.3% 243/573
White 93.9%
Black 1.2%
Asian 2.5%
Managerial & professional 39.5% 112/573
Routine & Semi-routine 21.6% 370/573
Degree level 33.5% 240/573
No qualifications 14.4% 453/573
General Election 2019: North West Hampshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Kit Malthouse 36,591 62.1 0.0
Liberal Democrats Luigi Gregori 10,283 17.5 +7.8
Labour Liz Bell 9,327 15.8 -7.7
Green Lance Mitchell 2,717 4.6 +2.3
C Majority 26,308 44.6 +6.0
Turnout 58,918 70.9 -1.3
Conservative hold
Swing 3.9 C to LD
North West Hampshire since its creation in 1983 has been made up of some rural parts of the western half of Basingstoke and Deane borough, and the northern part of the Test Valley, centred on the town of Andover. Andover was one of the communities chosen to expand to take in London overspill in the post-war years, and in the two decades after 1961 the population of this once sleepy town doubled. The proportion of council houses trebled in the 1960s. Clearly there was a potential Labour vote in the newer northern half of Andover, but it never really materialised. It would seem that an ‘environmental effect’ meant that the migrant voters attuned more to the political traditions of their new surroundings than their origins. Andover’s population then stabilized, remaining at around 50,000 including the whole of its built up area since 1981, and a substantial amount of the council housing was sold off; by the time of the 2011 census only 16% of the housing in NW Hampshire was in the social rented sector. Labour moved up to second here ahead of the Liberal Democrats for the first time in 2001, but never really challenged for the lead, remaining 12,009 behind. That is the narrowest lead the Tories have had in the 21st century, with Labour, the Liberal Democrats and also UKIP (in 2015) taking turns to finish a distant second.
In 2019 the Conservative share remained exactly stable, at a very comfortable 62.1% as in 2017. However there was a swing of nearly eight per cent from Labour (down 7.7%) to Liberal Democrat (up 7.8%). This may owe something to a ‘Corbyn effect’ and to attitude to Brexit, although NW Hampshire is estimated to have voted about 55% Leave to 45% Remain in 2016. In any case Kit Malthouse increased his majority still further to 26,308, both because of the split nature of the opposition and to the great inherent Conservative strength. This is not a seat of particularly high educational qualifications – the 28.3% with degrees at the last available census is slightly below the south eastern regional average, those with no qualifications very close to that average, and it is in bottom decile for full time students. Nor is it in the top 100 for professional and managerial occupations. But none of these factors would have hurt the Tories in the circumstances of 2019, and as outlined above this is a very conservative part of the land, and with good reason. Health is good, ethnic homogeneity very high indeed for the South East region, unemployment low, social strife rare.
In local elections the Conservatives won every division within the constituency easily in May 2021, including all those in Andover town. In May 2019 in the most recent borough council elections, they were beaten by the Andover Alliance in some urban wards of Test Valley, but the Liberal Democrat strength was all at the southern end of the borough in the Romsey & Southampton North constituency. In the most recent council elections in the wards within Basingstoke and Deane, the Conservatives won almost all by wide margins, losing only to the Liberal Democrats in 2019 in Baughurst & Tadley North and on what appears to be a personal vote to Labour in the ward of Overton, Laverstoke & Steventon.
There was a ward allocated to the North West Hampshire constituency under its first three sets of boundaries called Alamein. This is because the village of Enham just north of Andover was the site of a recovery centre for wounded soldiers after the Great War, and the name of the key North African battle was appended to create Enham Alamein after World War Two. Alamein ward’s last contest in 2015, before ward revisions, was not a close run thing, with the Conservatives taking all three of its seats with over twice the share of any other party. This pattern is replicated in the parliamentary battle in NW Hampshire. In December 2019 the electorate of the seats was 83,000, oversized for the quota applied by the latest boundary commission, so initial proposals suggest transferring some rural wards south and west of Andover to Romsey & Southampton North, while making smaller additions to ensure that the whole of Tadley, the second largest community in the seat, is to be included here in future. In that future, NW Hampshire is highly likely to remain one of the most solid Conservative strongholds in the whole of England.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 17.2% 284/650
Owner-occupied 68.8% 252/650
Private rented 12.4% 438/650
Social rented 16.3% 312/650
White 96.7% 248/650
Black 0.4% 395/650
Asian 1.4% 434/650
Managerial & professional 37.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 23.1%
Degree level 28.3% 228/650
No qualifications 18.9% 503/650
Students 5.3% 611/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 69.5% 186/573
Private rented 14.2% 468/573
Social rented 16.3% 243/573
White 93.9%
Black 1.2%
Asian 2.5%
Managerial & professional 39.5% 112/573
Routine & Semi-routine 21.6% 370/573
Degree level 33.5% 240/573
No qualifications 14.4% 453/573
General Election 2019: North West Hampshire
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Kit Malthouse 36,591 62.1 0.0
Liberal Democrats Luigi Gregori 10,283 17.5 +7.8
Labour Liz Bell 9,327 15.8 -7.7
Green Lance Mitchell 2,717 4.6 +2.3
C Majority 26,308 44.6 +6.0
Turnout 58,918 70.9 -1.3
Conservative hold
Swing 3.9 C to LD
