It’s hard to predict, his last few attempts haven’t gone so well but they probably weren’t great places for his brand (Manchester, West Bromwich, South Scotland). Batley could well be a different scenario and no chance he’ll win but could be a respectable result.
I expect Galloway to save his deposit, but not by that much. 5% of a 40% turnout (typical for by-elections) is only some 1300 votes. I can’t see him getting more than 2000 unless there is an unexpectedly large turnout.
I would guess around 2,000-3,000. Respectable, and just possibly enough to lose Labour the seat, but will not come even close to winning.
“The most dangerous man to any government is the man who is able to think things out for himself, without regard to the prevailing superstitions and taboos. Almost inevitably he comes to the conclusion that the government he lives under is dishonest, insane, and intolerable.” H. L. Mencken
Reminder that he only managed 2,615 in Manchester Gorton in 2017, with the extended run-in of a by-election replaced by a general.
The Muslim community weren't utterly pissed off with the party's position on Israel which currently brands them all as anti-Semitic
To be clear, this was one unnamed "senior Labour official" who (assuming they actually exist at all, a wise precaution given the source - one Han Dodges) has been disowned by almost everybody. Though the wider pattern of too many Labour insiders basically despising those groups who *actually* vote for them is a pretty undeniable one.
Last Edit: Jun 21, 2021 11:25:13 GMT by The Bishop
"READ THE STANDING ORDERS! READ THEM AND UNDERSTAND THEM!!"
This isn't easy because there's flannel and smokescreens on social media. We appear to have gone into radio silence, which is wise. Local Labour activists have been sent to the 'leafier' parts of the constituency. GG appears to be concentrating on Batley plus council estates in the Spen Valley.
Assume 10,000 Muslim voters (they will turn out in better numbers because they always do) and the likely split in 2019 would have been Lab 8,500 Con 1,000 Rest 500 but this time Con/Rest 500, GG/Lab sharing 9,500. He says that he has the lion's share...probably 3,000 to 5,000 and then add another 1,000 from the estates...4,000 to 6,000. Ten days to go and much could happen.
do what? Win? - No. Get a significant number of voted and have (arguably) an effect on the outcome - Sadly yes
Although I don't think this response is due in the least to my physical proximity to Batley
I would be interested to know your view on how Galloway captured the Tory vote so completely in Bradford West..
I think it is a bit more complicated than that. Looking at the results over recent GEs the Conservatives got 30 odd percent between '97 and 2010 with muslim candidates against the sikh Marsha Singh in the by-election the conservative Candidate was a white, non muslim and the Conservative vote was 8% the last 2 elections, with a white, then muslim candidate they got 15%ish I would contend that, as is often the case, shifts in voting patterns in Bradford West had little to do with traditional ideological divides