johnloony
Conservative
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Post by johnloony on Jun 20, 2021 20:48:03 GMT
How many votes will George Galloway get in the Batley & Spen by-election?
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Jun 20, 2021 21:40:22 GMT
7000-9999
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 20, 2021 21:42:40 GMT
I'm thinking 10k rn.
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
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Post by Crimson King on Jun 20, 2021 22:00:18 GMT
too many
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Post by owainsutton on Jun 20, 2021 22:00:39 GMT
Reminder that he only managed 2,615 in Manchester Gorton in 2017, with the extended run-in of a by-election replaced by a general.
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Post by owainsutton on Jun 20, 2021 22:01:06 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 20, 2021 22:02:58 GMT
Reminder that he only managed 2,615 in Manchester Gorton in 2017, with the extended run-in of a by-election replaced by a general. The Muslim community weren't utterly pissed off with the party's position on Israel which currently brands them all as anti-Semitic |
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Post by stb12 on Jun 20, 2021 22:08:27 GMT
It’s hard to predict, his last few attempts haven’t gone so well but they probably weren’t great places for his brand (Manchester, West Bromwich, South Scotland). Batley could well be a different scenario and no chance he’ll win but could be a respectable result.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 20, 2021 22:44:51 GMT
You're in Bradford, I think that's 10km thereabouts from Batley, do you think he'll do it? |
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Post by owainsutton on Jun 20, 2021 23:05:54 GMT
Reminder that he only managed 2,615 in Manchester Gorton in 2017, with the extended run-in of a by-election replaced by a general. The Muslim community weren't utterly pissed off with the party's position on Israel which currently brands them all as anti-Semitic I do hope that the Christian community will be along shortly to reply. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 21, 2021 9:18:05 GMT
I expect Galloway to save his deposit, but not by that much. 5% of a 40% turnout (typical for by-elections) is only some 1300 votes. I can’t see him getting more than 2000 unless there is an unexpectedly large turnout.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
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Post by peterl on Jun 21, 2021 11:20:12 GMT
I would guess around 2,000-3,000. Respectable, and just possibly enough to lose Labour the seat, but will not come even close to winning.
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jamesg
Forum Regular
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Post by jamesg on Jun 21, 2021 11:24:22 GMT
I've gone for 4000 to 6999.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,468
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 21, 2021 11:24:29 GMT
Reminder that he only managed 2,615 in Manchester Gorton in 2017, with the extended run-in of a by-election replaced by a general. The Muslim community weren't utterly pissed off with the party's position on Israel which currently brands them all as anti-Semitic To be clear, this was one unnamed "senior Labour official" who (assuming they actually exist at all, a wise precaution given the source - one Han Dodges) has been disowned by almost everybody. Though the wider pattern of too many Labour insiders basically despising those groups who *actually* vote for them is a pretty undeniable one. |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 21, 2021 11:50:40 GMT
I would guess around 2,000-3,000. Respectable, and just possibly enough to lose Labour the seat, but will not come even close to winning. Yes I’d suspect that if he gets anything like the 5000+ that some people are suggesting, then Labour has no chance. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 21, 2021 12:03:52 GMT
This isn't easy because there's flannel and smokescreens on social media. We appear to have gone into radio silence, which is wise. Local Labour activists have been sent to the 'leafier' parts of the constituency. GG appears to be concentrating on Batley plus council estates in the Spen Valley.
Assume 10,000 Muslim voters (they will turn out in better numbers because they always do) and the likely split in 2019 would have been Lab 8,500 Con 1,000 Rest 500 but this time Con/Rest 500, GG/Lab sharing 9,500. He says that he has the lion's share...probably 3,000 to 5,000 and then add another 1,000 from the estates...4,000 to 6,000. Ten days to go and much could happen.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,468
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 21, 2021 12:10:00 GMT
I would guess around 2,000-3,000. Respectable, and just possibly enough to lose Labour the seat, but will not come even close to winning. Yes I’d suspect that if he gets anything like the 5000+ that some people are suggesting, then Labour has no chance. If they are almost all Muslim voters, maybe. An intriguing possibility, however, has to be that he takes a significant chunk of the "right populist" 2019 GE vote that the Tories are hoping for this time round. |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
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Post by Crimson King on Jun 21, 2021 12:41:07 GMT
You're in Bradford, I think that's 10km thereabouts from Batley, do you think he'll do it? do what? Win? - No. Get a significant number of voted and have (arguably) an effect on the outcome - Sadly yes Although I don't think this response is due in the least to my physical proximity to Batley |
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Post by andrew111 on Jun 21, 2021 12:50:31 GMT
You're in Bradford, I think that's 10km thereabouts from Batley, do you think he'll do it? do what? Win? - No. Get a significant number of voted and have (arguably) an effect on the outcome - Sadly yes Although I don't think this response is due in the least to my physical proximity to Batley I would be interested to know your view on how Galloway captured the Tory vote so completely in Bradford West.. |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
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Post by Crimson King on Jun 21, 2021 13:03:38 GMT
do what? Win? - No. Get a significant number of voted and have (arguably) an effect on the outcome - Sadly yes Although I don't think this response is due in the least to my physical proximity to Batley I would be interested to know your view on how Galloway captured the Tory vote so completely in Bradford West.. I think it is a bit more complicated than that. Looking at the results over recent GEs the Conservatives got 30 odd percent between '97 and 2010 with muslim candidates against the sikh Marsha Singh in the by-election the conservative Candidate was a white, non muslim and the Conservative vote was 8% the last 2 elections, with a white, then muslim candidate they got 15%ish I would contend that, as is often the case, shifts in voting patterns in Bradford West had little to do with traditional ideological divides |
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