UK General Elections 2007 and 2008

[jamesg]

Tony Blair left office as British Prime Minister in June 2007. In an uncontested internal party election, he was replaced as leader of the Labour Party by Gordon Brown: Brown thus became PM. A polling bounce was gained by Brown throughout the summer. There was a little wobble with his new government over the near collapse of the bank Northern Rock but Treasury intervention averted its complete fall. In September, at the party conference, Brown's popularity continued. Days after the end of that event, Brown announced to the nation from the steps of Downing Street that there would be a general election the following month. Though he didn't say it, Brown sought a mandate from the public. It had been two years after the last election and he could have waited another three years to have an election yet Brown felt confident that he could win another term.

Within a week, there were polling woes and the effects of a strong backlash against the called election. The public didn't believe one was necessary. Opposition politicians criticised the need for one. There were issues over the latest boundary review for parliamentary constituencies too, ones which hadn't been fully solved and were needed to be rushed ahead of the October election. Many of Brown's own MPs didn't want an election because they had yet to be chosen for new seats and they feared a surge from the opposition. David Cameron and Ming Campbell, leading the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats respectively, attacked Brown for calling the election yet at the same time threw everything at it. They saw weakness in the Labour campaign from the outset and moved to take advantage.

Brown's polling lead was near whipped out ahead of polling day. He'd taken a gamble and made a massive mistake. When the results came in, there were gasps everywhere.

Labour : 299 (down fifty-six)
Conservatives : 280 (up eighty-two)
Lib-Dems : 40 (down twenty-two)
SNP : 6 (no change)
Plaid : 3 (no change)
Respect : 2 (up one)
Greens : 1 (no change)
Speaker : 1 (no change)
Ulster parties : 18 (no change)

Labour had 'won' the election but Brown had lost his majority. The 2007 election was fought on six hundred and fifty seats - up from six hundred and forty-six at the previous contest - and three hundred and twenty-six were needed for a majority. Sinn Fein had taken five seats in Ulster and wouldn't sit in the Commons, lowering that 326 number a bit yet Labour were still a long way short of the necessary majority. The Conservatives had gone upwards, a lot, but not enough to win a majority themselves. The Lib-Dems lost more than a third of their seats, all to the Conservatives, and had a bad night. Respect had held their lone seat in East London (two recounts were needed) and gained another in Birmingham. Nationalist parties had held onto mostly what they had though with a little bit of 'churn' over in Ulster between the parties. UKIP and the BNP had won well over a million votes between them yet gained no representation in the Commons.

Brown reached out to Campbell. He sought the Lib-Dems help to form a government. Earlier in the year, when he first took over, Brown had extended his hand of friendship to Campbell to allow for Lib-Dems to serve in his Government Of All The Talents and been rebuffed. They were too far apart on many serious issues despite being close on others. Media pressure was put on Campbell to prop up Brown but he refused. Should he had chosen to work with the Conservatives, which Campbell wouldn't do either, the numbers weren't there for that. Days of post-election political crisis came while Brown struggled. The markets didn't react well. There were problems overseas and that started to affect the UK where outsiders saw only chaos. Brown refused to accept that there was any sort of crisis though. He proclaimed that there was stability. By the Monday following the election, some of that 'stability' came. At the insistence of his senior MPs, Campbell did an about-turn and a deal was done with Labour. The Lib-Dems wouldn't enter any coalition with Brown but instead would prop up the government on a case-by-case basis. It would be confidence-and-supply rather than any joint government.

Brown held on throughout the winter. Campbell's MPs were unhappy at him. Cameron had internal problems of his own with his party unsure of him considering he had been unable to get his party over the line in October. Commentators speculated on which leader might go first from their party leadership. It was Campbell who was forced out first. He lost the confidence of his MPs and they got rid of him. Labour lost several votes in the Commons yet despite all that went on, Brown held onto his place. Nick Clegg, Simon Hughes and Chris Huhne ran for the Lib-Dem leadership ahead of Christmas in a rushed contest. Huhne won out. He met with Brown after his party victory and warned him that the Lib-Dems couldn't continue providing confidence-&-supply for ever. Brown offered him a coalition with Huhne and others in the government but the new Lib-Dem leader refused. He told Brown that an election would have to come soon. Cameron also met with Huhne. They couldn't agree on everything but there was still some common ground there too despite differences elsewhere. Like Huhne, Cameron knew a second general election would have to come to sort out the mess.

In February, Brown was formally challenged for the Labour leadership. David Miliband resigned as foreign secretary and got enough nominations to launch a leadership challenge. It promised to be a drawn-out contest... but then it wasn't. Brown announced he would stand down. Miliband became the new Labour leader and PM come March in a situation which few saw coming only a few months before. Brown had refused to go in October and clung on by his fingertips yet walked away come March. Miliband talked with Huhne as Brown had done and got nowhere. The Lib-Dems were ready for an election. So too were the Conservatives. Pressure was applied upon Miliband to call one but his government tried to hold on. Economic woes continued to threaten the UK and its government. Boris Johnson won the London mayoral race at the beginning of May, defeating the Labour incumbent Ken Livingstone. Miliband and Livingstone were miles apart politically despite both being Labour yet it was a crushing defeat for Miliband's leadership. Days later, Labour lost a vote in the Commons over financial aid to sectors of the economy: the entire contingent of Lib-Dems voted with the Conservatives with Huhne leading the charge on that and then the next day in declaring that Miliband was incapable of government. Cameron soon put forward a motion for a vote of no confidence. The opposition parties had more than enough numbers to bring down the government. Miliband pre-empted them. Instead of facing that Commons defeat, he called a general election for June 2008.

The polling numbers weren't good for Labour while the Conservatives and the Lib-Dems rode high. Miliband tried his best but couldn't close the gap. The day before voters went to the polls, there were several media reports claimed that Miliband had already resigned himself to defeat. Cameron gave it his all and kept his party united throughout the second general election campaign he fought. Huhne had issues with several of his MPs once again where his authority was challenged: they were quite the rebellious lot. Polling day came around and into the early hours of the following day, the results came in.

Conservatives : 342 (up sixty-two)
Labour : 234 (down sixty-five)
Lib-Dems : 44 (up four)
SNP : 7 (up one)
Plaid : 3 (no change)
Greens : 1 (no change)
Speaker : 1 (no change)
Ulster parties : 18 (no change)

The Conservatives had won a majority. Secret pre-election talks between the shadow chancellor George Osbourne and the Lib-Dem's home affair's spokesman Clegg had taken place to agree on some common policy if there was a need for their two parties to work together after the election. Those were rendered moot come the day after the election. Cameron had won outright. His majority was small but more than workable. Labour had been battered. Miliband had lost more seats than Brown had for his party. Huhne had gained a handful of seats for the Lib-Dems but that hadn't done his party much good at all. They remained in opposition. Respect lost both its seats and the SNP gained one up in Scotland. Cameron meanwhile walked into Downing Street as the new British Prime Minister. Within months, there would be serious global economic crisis and the Conservatives would be in power for that.

[The Bishop]

Maybe the more interesting timeline is where Brown's gamble pays off and Labour get another clear majority. We still have the financial crash a year later, but people might actually react even worse to that than IRL as they feel Brown hid the full seriousness of the situation from them to get elected?

Which maybe sets up a decisive (even if not landslide) Tory win at the following GE whenever it is held - shades of 1979, perhaps?

[islington]

Jun 20, 2021 11:51:39 GMT The Bishop said:

Maybe the more interesting timeline is where Brown's gamble pays off and Labour get another clear majority. We still have the financial crash a year later, but people might actually react even worse to that than IRL as they feel Brown hid the full seriousness of the situation from them to get elected?

Which maybe sets up a decisive (even if not landslide) Tory win at the following GE whenever it is held - shades of 1979, perhaps?

But we know what would have happened in that case.

'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority.'

www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase

[jamesg]

Jun 20, 2021 11:51:39 GMT The Bishop said:

Maybe the more interesting timeline is where Brown's gamble pays off and Labour get another clear majority. We still have the financial crash a year later, but people might actually react even worse to that than IRL as they feel Brown hid the full seriousness of the situation from them to get elected?

Which maybe sets up a decisive (even if not landslide) Tory win at the following GE whenever it is held - shades of 1979, perhaps?

That's an interesting idea. If the mood takes me, I'll write something like that.

[jamesg]

Jun 20, 2021 13:02:20 GMT islington said:

Jun 20, 2021 11:51:39 GMT The Bishop said:

Maybe the more interesting timeline is where Brown's gamble pays off and Labour get another clear majority. We still have the financial crash a year later, but people might actually react even worse to that than IRL as they feel Brown hid the full seriousness of the situation from them to get elected?

Which maybe sets up a decisive (even if not landslide) Tory win at the following GE whenever it is held - shades of 1979, perhaps?

But we know what would have happened in that case.

'Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority.'

www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase

Interesting read. The 'Britain before the crash' remark made me smile. The author couldn't read the future but it was almost like they could.

[adlai52]

Jun 20, 2021 9:26:33 GMT jamesg said:

Tony Blair left office as British Prime Minister in June 2007. In an uncontested internal party election, he was replaced as leader of the Labour Party by Gordon Brown: Brown thus became PM. A polling bounce was gained by Brown throughout the summer. There was a little wobble with his new government over the near collapse of the bank Northern Rock but Treasury intervention averted its complete fall. In September, at the party conference, Brown's popularity continued. Days after the end of that event, Brown announced to the nation from the steps of Downing Street that there would be a general election the following month. Though he didn't say it, Brown sought a mandate from the public. It had been two years after the last election and he could have waited another three years to have an election yet Brown felt confident that he could win another term.

Within a week, there were polling woes and the effects of a strong backlash against the called election. The public didn't believe one was necessary. Opposition politicians criticised the need for one. There were issues over the latest boundary review for parliamentary constituencies too, ones which hadn't been fully solved and were needed to be rushed ahead of the October election. Many of Brown's own MPs didn't want an election because they had yet to be chosen for new seats and they feared a surge from the opposition. David Cameron and Ming Campbell, leading the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats respectively, attacked Brown for calling the election yet at the same time threw everything at it. They saw weakness in the Labour campaign from the outset and moved to take advantage.

Brown's polling lead was near whipped out ahead of polling day. He'd taken a gamble and made a massive mistake. When the results came in, there were gasps everywhere.

Labour : 299 (down fifty-six)
Conservatives : 280 (up eighty-two)
Lib-Dems : 40 (down twenty-two)
SNP : 6 (no change)
Plaid : 3 (no change)
Respect : 2 (up one)
Greens : 1 (no change)
Speaker : 1 (no change)
Ulster parties : 18 (no change)

Labour had 'won' the election but Brown had lost his majority. The 2007 election was fought on six hundred and fifty seats - up from six hundred and forty-six at the previous contest - and three hundred and twenty-six were needed for a majority. Sinn Fein had taken five seats in Ulster and wouldn't sit in the Commons, lowering that 326 number a bit yet Labour were still a long way short of the necessary majority. The Conservatives had gone upwards, a lot, but not enough to win a majority themselves. The Lib-Dems lost more than a third of their seats, all to the Conservatives, and had a bad night. Respect had held their lone seat in East London (two recounts were needed) and gained another in Birmingham. Nationalist parties had held onto mostly what they had though with a little bit of 'churn' over in Ulster between the parties. UKIP and the BNP had won well over a million votes between them yet gained no representation in the Commons.

Brown reached out to Campbell. He sought the Lib-Dems help to form a government. Earlier in the year, when he first took over, Brown had extended his hand of friendship to Campbell to allow for Lib-Dems to serve in his Government Of All The Talents and been rebuffed. They were too far apart on many serious issues despite being close on others. Media pressure was put on Campbell to prop up Brown but he refused. Should he had chosen to work with the Conservatives, which Campbell wouldn't do either, the numbers weren't there for that. Days of post-election political crisis came while Brown struggled. The markets didn't react well. There were problems overseas and that started to affect the UK where outsiders saw only chaos. Brown refused to accept that there was any sort of crisis though. He proclaimed that there was stability. By the Monday following the election, some of that 'stability' came. At the insistence of his senior MPs, Campbell did an about-turn and a deal was done with Labour. The Lib-Dems wouldn't enter any coalition with Brown but instead would prop up the government on a case-by-case basis. It would be confidence-and-supply rather than any joint government.

Brown held on throughout the winter. Campbell's MPs were unhappy at him. Cameron had internal problems of his own with his party unsure of him considering he had been unable to get his party over the line in October. Commentators speculated on which leader might go first from their party leadership. It was Campbell who was forced out first. He lost the confidence of his MPs and they got rid of him. Labour lost several votes in the Commons yet despite all that went on, Brown held onto his place. Nick Clegg, Simon Hughes and Chris Huhne ran for the Lib-Dem leadership ahead of Christmas in a rushed contest. Huhne won out. He met with Brown after his party victory and warned him that the Lib-Dems couldn't continue providing confidence-&-supply for ever. Brown offered him a coalition with Huhne and others in the government but the new Lib-Dem leader refused. He told Brown that an election would have to come soon. Cameron also met with Huhne. They couldn't agree on everything but there was still some common ground there too despite differences elsewhere. Like Huhne, Cameron knew a second general election would have to come to sort out the mess.

In February, Brown was formally challenged for the Labour leadership. David Miliband resigned as foreign secretary and got enough nominations to launch a leadership challenge. It promised to be a drawn-out contest... but then it wasn't. Brown announced he would stand down. Miliband became the new Labour leader and PM come March in a situation which few saw coming only a few months before. Brown had refused to go in October and clung on by his fingertips yet walked away come March. Miliband talked with Huhne as Brown had done and got nowhere. The Lib-Dems were ready for an election. So too were the Conservatives. Pressure was applied upon Miliband to call one but his government tried to hold on. Economic woes continued to threaten the UK and its government. Boris Johnson won the London mayoral race at the beginning of May, defeating the Labour incumbent Ken Livingstone. Miliband and Livingstone were miles apart politically despite both being Labour yet it was a crushing defeat for Miliband's leadership. Days later, Labour lost a vote in the Commons over financial aid to sectors of the economy: the entire contingent of Lib-Dems voted with the Conservatives with Huhne leading the charge on that and then the next day in declaring that Miliband was incapable of government. Cameron soon put forward a motion for a vote of no confidence. The opposition parties had more than enough numbers to bring down the government. Miliband pre-empted them. Instead of facing that Commons defeat, he called a general election for June 2008.

The polling numbers weren't good for Labour while the Conservatives and the Lib-Dems rode high. Miliband tried his best but couldn't close the gap. The day before voters went to the polls, there were several media reports claimed that Miliband had already resigned himself to defeat. Cameron gave it his all and kept his party united throughout the second general election campaign he fought. Huhne had issues with several of his MPs once again where his authority was challenged: they were quite the rebellious lot. Polling day came around and into the early hours of the following day, the results came in.

Conservatives : 342 (up sixty-two)
Labour : 234 (down sixty-five)
Lib-Dems : 44 (up four)
SNP : 7 (up one)
Plaid : 3 (no change)
Greens : 1 (no change)
Speaker : 1 (no change)
Ulster parties : 18 (no change)

The Conservatives had won a majority. Secret pre-election talks between the shadow chancellor George Osbourne and the Lib-Dem's home affair's spokesman Clegg had taken place to agree on some common policy if there was a need for their two parties to work together after the election. Those were rendered moot come the day after the election. Cameron had won outright. His majority was small but more than workable. Labour had been battered. Miliband had lost more seats than Brown had for his party. Huhne had gained a handful of seats for the Lib-Dems but that hadn't done his party much good at all. They remained in opposition. Respect lost both its seats and the SNP gained one up in Scotland. Cameron meanwhile walked into Downing Street as the new British Prime Minister. Within months, there would be serious global economic crisis and the Conservatives would be in power for that.

This matches my suspicion that had there been an election in 2007 it might have been a lot like what we got with the 2017 - with an election called without a clear reason, by the PM who was never a great campaigner (Brown had many other strengths) with the result that the Opposition defy expectations.

With Campbell as LibDem Leader is expect the Tories make some significant gains against them in the South East and South West - although nothing like the near wipe out the Party actually suffered in 2015 - at the same time as Cameron takes a lot of the low hanging fruit from Labour.

The political geography would probably still be a long way from where we are today, I'd expect Labour to hold up well in Scotland and the North, while the Conservative gains are concentrated in South and the more prosperous parts of the Midlands. The long term factors working against Labour in the party's traditional heartlands would still be there, but they wouldn't like be evident yet.  

[jamesg]

Jun 20, 2021 20:39:00 GMT adlai52 said:

Jun 20, 2021 9:26:33 GMT jamesg said:

Tony Blair left office as British Prime Minister in June 2007. In an uncontested internal party election, he was replaced as leader of the Labour Party by Gordon Brown: Brown thus became PM. A polling bounce was gained by Brown throughout the summer. There was a little wobble with his new government over the near collapse of the bank Northern Rock but Treasury intervention averted its complete fall. In September, at the party conference, Brown's popularity continued. Days after the end of that event, Brown announced to the nation from the steps of Downing Street that there would be a general election the following month. Though he didn't say it, Brown sought a mandate from the public. It had been two years after the last election and he could have waited another three years to have an election yet Brown felt confident that he could win another term.

Within a week, there were polling woes and the effects of a strong backlash against the called election. The public didn't believe one was necessary. Opposition politicians criticised the need for one. There were issues over the latest boundary review for parliamentary constituencies too, ones which hadn't been fully solved and were needed to be rushed ahead of the October election. Many of Brown's own MPs didn't want an election because they had yet to be chosen for new seats and they feared a surge from the opposition. David Cameron and Ming Campbell, leading the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats respectively, attacked Brown for calling the election yet at the same time threw everything at it. They saw weakness in the Labour campaign from the outset and moved to take advantage.

Brown's polling lead was near whipped out ahead of polling day. He'd taken a gamble and made a massive mistake. When the results came in, there were gasps everywhere.

Labour : 299 (down fifty-six)
Conservatives : 280 (up eighty-two)
Lib-Dems : 40 (down twenty-two)
SNP : 6 (no change)
Plaid : 3 (no change)
Respect : 2 (up one)
Greens : 1 (no change)
Speaker : 1 (no change)
Ulster parties : 18 (no change)

Labour had 'won' the election but Brown had lost his majority. The 2007 election was fought on six hundred and fifty seats - up from six hundred and forty-six at the previous contest - and three hundred and twenty-six were needed for a majority. Sinn Fein had taken five seats in Ulster and wouldn't sit in the Commons, lowering that 326 number a bit yet Labour were still a long way short of the necessary majority. The Conservatives had gone upwards, a lot, but not enough to win a majority themselves. The Lib-Dems lost more than a third of their seats, all to the Conservatives, and had a bad night. Respect had held their lone seat in East London (two recounts were needed) and gained another in Birmingham. Nationalist parties had held onto mostly what they had though with a little bit of 'churn' over in Ulster between the parties. UKIP and the BNP had won well over a million votes between them yet gained no representation in the Commons.

Brown reached out to Campbell. He sought the Lib-Dems help to form a government. Earlier in the year, when he first took over, Brown had extended his hand of friendship to Campbell to allow for Lib-Dems to serve in his Government Of All The Talents and been rebuffed. They were too far apart on many serious issues despite being close on others. Media pressure was put on Campbell to prop up Brown but he refused. Should he had chosen to work with the Conservatives, which Campbell wouldn't do either, the numbers weren't there for that. Days of post-election political crisis came while Brown struggled. The markets didn't react well. There were problems overseas and that started to affect the UK where outsiders saw only chaos. Brown refused to accept that there was any sort of crisis though. He proclaimed that there was stability. By the Monday following the election, some of that 'stability' came. At the insistence of his senior MPs, Campbell did an about-turn and a deal was done with Labour. The Lib-Dems wouldn't enter any coalition with Brown but instead would prop up the government on a case-by-case basis. It would be confidence-and-supply rather than any joint government.

Brown held on throughout the winter. Campbell's MPs were unhappy at him. Cameron had internal problems of his own with his party unsure of him considering he had been unable to get his party over the line in October. Commentators speculated on which leader might go first from their party leadership. It was Campbell who was forced out first. He lost the confidence of his MPs and they got rid of him. Labour lost several votes in the Commons yet despite all that went on, Brown held onto his place. Nick Clegg, Simon Hughes and Chris Huhne ran for the Lib-Dem leadership ahead of Christmas in a rushed contest. Huhne won out. He met with Brown after his party victory and warned him that the Lib-Dems couldn't continue providing confidence-&-supply for ever. Brown offered him a coalition with Huhne and others in the government but the new Lib-Dem leader refused. He told Brown that an election would have to come soon. Cameron also met with Huhne. They couldn't agree on everything but there was still some common ground there too despite differences elsewhere. Like Huhne, Cameron knew a second general election would have to come to sort out the mess.

In February, Brown was formally challenged for the Labour leadership. David Miliband resigned as foreign secretary and got enough nominations to launch a leadership challenge. It promised to be a drawn-out contest... but then it wasn't. Brown announced he would stand down. Miliband became the new Labour leader and PM come March in a situation which few saw coming only a few months before. Brown had refused to go in October and clung on by his fingertips yet walked away come March. Miliband talked with Huhne as Brown had done and got nowhere. The Lib-Dems were ready for an election. So too were the Conservatives. Pressure was applied upon Miliband to call one but his government tried to hold on. Economic woes continued to threaten the UK and its government. Boris Johnson won the London mayoral race at the beginning of May, defeating the Labour incumbent Ken Livingstone. Miliband and Livingstone were miles apart politically despite both being Labour yet it was a crushing defeat for Miliband's leadership. Days later, Labour lost a vote in the Commons over financial aid to sectors of the economy: the entire contingent of Lib-Dems voted with the Conservatives with Huhne leading the charge on that and then the next day in declaring that Miliband was incapable of government. Cameron soon put forward a motion for a vote of no confidence. The opposition parties had more than enough numbers to bring down the government. Miliband pre-empted them. Instead of facing that Commons defeat, he called a general election for June 2008.

The polling numbers weren't good for Labour while the Conservatives and the Lib-Dems rode high. Miliband tried his best but couldn't close the gap. The day before voters went to the polls, there were several media reports claimed that Miliband had already resigned himself to defeat. Cameron gave it his all and kept his party united throughout the second general election campaign he fought. Huhne had issues with several of his MPs once again where his authority was challenged: they were quite the rebellious lot. Polling day came around and into the early hours of the following day, the results came in.

Conservatives : 342 (up sixty-two)
Labour : 234 (down sixty-five)
Lib-Dems : 44 (up four)
SNP : 7 (up one)
Plaid : 3 (no change)
Greens : 1 (no change)
Speaker : 1 (no change)
Ulster parties : 18 (no change)

The Conservatives had won a majority. Secret pre-election talks between the shadow chancellor George Osbourne and the Lib-Dem's home affair's spokesman Clegg had taken place to agree on some common policy if there was a need for their two parties to work together after the election. Those were rendered moot come the day after the election. Cameron had won outright. His majority was small but more than workable. Labour had been battered. Miliband had lost more seats than Brown had for his party. Huhne had gained a handful of seats for the Lib-Dems but that hadn't done his party much good at all. They remained in opposition. Respect lost both its seats and the SNP gained one up in Scotland. Cameron meanwhile walked into Downing Street as the new British Prime Minister. Within months, there would be serious global economic crisis and the Conservatives would be in power for that.

This matches my suspicion that had there been an election in 2007 it might have been a lot like what we got with the 2017 - with an election called without a clear reason, by the PM who was never a great campaigner (Brown had many other strengths) with the result that the Opposition defy expectations.

With Campbell as LibDem Leader is expect the Tories make some significant gains against them in the South East and South West - although nothing like the near wipe out the Party actually suffered in 2015 - at the same time as Cameron takes a lot of the low hanging fruit from Labour.

The political geography would probably still be a long way from where we are today, I'd expect Labour to hold up well in Scotland and the North, while the Conservative gains are concentrated in South and the more prosperous parts of the Midlands. The long term factors working against Labour in the party's traditional heartlands would still be there, but they wouldn't like be evident yet.  

That was my thinking. There would have been many issues with candidate selection due to boundary changes messing things up for Labour with a short campaign atop that. Ming wouldn't have done well and Cameron would have capitalised there the first time around.

[michaelarden]

Caroline Lucas didn't win Brighton until 2010.

[J.G.Harston]

Jun 20, 2021 21:20:48 GMT jamesg said:

Jun 20, 2021 20:39:00 GMT adlai52 said:

This matches my suspicion that had there been an election in 2007 it might have been a lot like what we got with the 2017 - with an election called without a clear reason, by the PM who was never a great campaigner (Brown had many other strengths) with the result that the Opposition defy expectations.

With Campbell as LibDem Leader is expect the Tories make some significant gains against them in the South East and South West - although nothing like the near wipe out the Party actually suffered in 2015 - at the same time as Cameron takes a lot of the low hanging fruit from Labour.

The political geography would probably still be a long way from where we are today, I'd expect Labour to hold up well in Scotland and the North, while the Conservative gains are concentrated in South and the more prosperous parts of the Midlands. The long term factors working against Labour in the party's traditional heartlands would still be there, but they wouldn't like be evident yet. 

That was my thinking. There would have been many issues with candidate selection due to boundary changes messing things up for Labour with a short campaign atop that. Ming wouldn't have done well and Cameron would have capitalised there the first time around.

On that timetable the elections absolutely wouldn't be fought on new boundaries. The review process was to draw new boundaries to be implemented for any general election after the spring/summer of 2009. You can squeeze in elections on new boundaries for Spring 2009, but not for 2008 and definitely not for 2007.

I remember renegotiating my mortgage in September 2008 and even then the financial "crisis" was seen as a minor disturbance, easily ignorable, soon to blow over. My main reason for renegotiating my mortgage was as a hedge against the outcome of my re-selection in a few months' time while being able to negotiate from a position of financial security.

[jamesg]

Jun 20, 2021 22:11:57 GMT michaelarden said:

Caroline Lucas didn't win Brighton until 2010.

I did see that she was selected to fight for it in July 2007. But I didn't go deep into looking at numbers nor trends.

[jamesg]

Jun 21, 2021 3:47:07 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Jun 20, 2021 21:20:48 GMT jamesg said:

That was my thinking. There would have been many issues with candidate selection due to boundary changes messing things up for Labour with a short campaign atop that. Ming wouldn't have done well and Cameron would have capitalised there the first time around.

On that timetable the elections absolutely wouldn't be fought on new boundaries. The review process was to draw new boundaries to be implemented for any general election after the spring/summer of 2009. You can squeeze in elections on new boundaries for Spring 2009, but not for 2008 and definitely not for 2007.

I remember renegotiating my mortgage in September 2008 and even then the financial "crisis" was seen as a minor disturbance, easily ignorable, soon to blow over. My main reason for renegotiating my mortgage was as a hedge against the outcome of my re-selection in a few months' time while being able to negotiate from a position of financial security.

Yeah, I've messed up there. I wanted to put some crisis in the campaign but, with reflection, and your comment, it doesn't make sense that they would do that. After all, this year's boundary review won't come into effect until 2023. My mistake.
A lot of people were worried about the economy in 2007 and 2008 though, ahead of the financial crash. I was. That doesn't mean everyone was, certainly, but in a time of political uncertainty, with a minority government, I was thinking the issue might have been overdone in the media by those seeking advantage.   

[johnloony]

I never thought there would be a general election in 2007.

[J.G.Harston]

Looking back at autumn 2008 it strikes me how unconcerned the UK finance system was about the financal crisis. I was able to renew my mortgage with a lower floating rate *and* get a £15,000 cashback credit.