Local Council by-elections 1st July 2021

[Tony Otim]

CHELMSFORD DC; Writtle (Con died)
Candidates:
BARTLETT, Ronnie (Green)
FOSTER, Lynn Valerie (Liberal Democrat)
MASSEY, Edward Paul George (Labour)
THORPE-APPS, Andrew George (Conservative)

2019: Con 829, 662; LD 537, 410
2015: Con 1592, 1344; LD 883,720; UKIP 551
2011: Con 1269, 1237; Lab 424, 413; LD 267, 242
2007: Con 992, 983; LD 632, 598; Lab 136, 135
2003: Con 692, 690; LD 661, 644; Lab 191, 167; Ind 171; Grn 68

Current Council: LD 30; Con 21; Chelmsford Ind Group 4; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



ELMBRIDGE DC; Cobham & Downside (Con died)
Candidates:
HARMOUR, Laura Jayne (Green)
KINGSTON, Elaine Linda (Reform UK)
STEPHENS, Robin Adam (Liberal Democrat)
STERRY, Corinne Elizabeth (Conservative)
THRELKELD, Irene (Labour)

2021: Con 1416; LD 475; Lab 185; UKIP 63; Reform 56
2019: Con 902; LD 598; UKIP 238; Lab 166
2018: Con 1280; LD 268; Lab 253; UKIP 128
2016: Con 1157, 1155, 1041; LD 593; UKIP 378; Lab 370

Elaine Kingston was the UKIP candidate in 2016, 2018, 2019 & 2021. Irene Threlkeld was the Labour candidate in 2018.

Current Council: Con 21; LD 8; Molesey Residents 5; Thames Ditton & Weston Green Residents 4; Esher Residents 2; Hinchley Wood Residents 2; The Walton Society 2; Weybridge & St George’s Independents 2; Ind 1; 1 vacancy




ENFIELD LBC; Bush Hill Park (Ind elected as Con disqualified)
Candidates:
ADETULA, Ade (Liberal Democrat)
DOLAN, John (TUSC)
FALLART, Peter David (Conservative)
MAYDON, Benjamin Charles (Green)
MORRISON, Clive Winston (Taking the Initiative Party)
STEVENS, Nia (Labour)

Nov 18by: Con 1540; Lab 828; LD 313; Grn 127; WEP 79; Ind 50
2018: Con 1976, 1959, 1926; Lab 1862, 1831,1681; Grn 539; LD 484; UKIP 144
2014: Con 1679, 1521, 1334; Lab 1522, 1277, 1223; UKIP 897, Grn 621; LD 453
Jul 11 by: Con 1108, Lab 668, Ind 230; LD 177; Grn 100; UKIP 70; BNP 61; ED 29
2010: Con 3451, 3225, 3224; Lab 2230, 2077, 2049; LD 1747; Grn 942; UKIP 618
Jan 09 by: Con 1320; Lab 413; LD 129; UKIP 123; Grn 97
2006: Con 2248, 2178, 1827; Save Chase Farm 1442; Lab 780, 683, 649; Grn 604; LD 547, 533; UKIP 298
2002: Con 2400, 2276, 2272; Lab 974, 867, 830; LD 565, 433, 421; UKIP 187, 144

Benjamin Maydon was the Green candidate here in both the 2018 elections.

Current Council: Lab 38; Con 17; Community First 7*; 1 vacancy

(*also includes 1 who defected to the Green Party from Labour earlier this year)



ISLINGTON LBC; Tollington (Lab resigned)
Candidates
CARSON, Vanessa Margaret (Conservative)
GILGUNN, Mick (Labour)
NICOLOV, Jane (Liberal Democrat)
WARD, Jonathan (Green)

2018: Lab 2764, 2727, 2707; Grn 674, 456, 380; LD 328, 322, 278; Con 216, 212, 200
2014: Lab 2355, 2320, 2302; Grn 1006, 951, 752; LD 400, 393, 313
2010: Lab 2476, 2350, 2263; LD 1604, 1466, 1425; Grn 1199, 1044, 883; Con 732, 642, 547
2006: Lab 1338, 1312, 1270; LD 827, 790, 757; Grn 531, 429, 406; Con 226, 222, 183
2002: Lab 1185, 1176, 1168; Save Arthur Simpson Library 437; Grn 364, 319, 245; LD 356, 325, 304; Soc All 191

Jane Nicolov was the top Lib Dem here in 2018.

Current Council: Lab 44; Con 1; Grn 1; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



NEWARK & SHERWOOD DC; Bridge (2 Inds resigned)
Candidates:
BICKERTON, Ryan Andrew (Independent)
CULLEN, Ryan Thomas (Liberal Democrat)
DARBY, Deb’s (Independent)
GEARY, Lisa June (Labour)
HAYNES, Simon Edward (Conservative)
KELLAS, Jack Logan (Conservative)
MELTON, Keith Myers (Liberal Democrat)
PALMER, Mark (Labour)
PLATT, Steve (Green)
POYZER, Mike (Green)

2019: Ind 671, 647; Lab 300; Con 269, 230
2015: Ind 920, 794; Con 461; Lab 411; UKIP 404

Steve Platt (Green) was the candidate for Collingham division (which contains most of this ward) in May.

Current council: Con 27; Lab 7; LD 2; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



NORTH EAST LINCOLNSHIRE UA; Heneage (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BOLTON, Dave (TUSC)
BONNER, Les (Liberal Democrat)
CLOUGH, Emma Louise (Labour)
HOGAN, Catherine Mary (Conservative)

2021: Con 931; Lab 734; LD 73; TUSC 64; Freedom Alliance 57
2019: Lab 800; Con 595; UKIP 552
2018: Lab 996; Con 681; UKIP 322; TUSC 46
2016: Lab 948; UKIP 500; Con 345; LD 158; TUSC 51
2015: Lab 1730; UKIP 1335; Con 917; LD 289
2014: UKIP 918; Lab 779; Con 408; LD 108; Grn 97; TUSC 43
2012: Lab 1039; LD 366; UKIP 304; Con 244; Ind 103
2011: Lab 1089; LD 585; Con 525; UKIP 299
2010: Lab 1357; LD 1212; Con 1175; UKIP 575
2008: LD 865; Con 666; Lab 484
2007: LD 861; Lab 676; Con 453
2006: LD 1229; Lab 758
2004: LD 1507; Lab 1002
2003: LD 1308, 1214, 1198; Lab 793, 662, 610

Emma Clough (Lab) and Dave Bolton (TUSC) both stood here in May for their respective parties.

Current Council: Con 31; Lab 7; LD 3; 1 vacancy



STOKE ON TRENT UA; Penkhull & Stoke (City Ind resigned after being charged with rape)
Candidates:
COLCLOUGH, Adam (Green)
LYTH, Hazel Doreen (City Independents)
POLSHAW, Lee (Labour)
RICHARDSON, Dean Trevor (Conservative)

2019: City Ind 679; Lab 620; Grn 129; Con 99
2015: City Ind 1209; Lab 745; Con 521; Grn 279; LD 79
2011: Ind 727; Lab 567; Con 156; LD 128; UKIP 120; Community Voice 50

The 2011 Independent was the same councillor as the City Independent in 2015 and 2019

Current Council: Con 20; Lab 13; City Ind 6; Ind 4; 1 vacancy

[gibbon]

In view of the Chesham and Amersham result what are the prospects of the Conservatives retaining their seats?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Neither of the two Conservative defences are in councils the Conservatives are running, which makes it less playable. There aren't any particular local issues over planning or railway development in either ward.

[Tony Otim]

I would have thought there's a reasonable chance they hold both, re-take the seat in Enfield and take the one in NE Lincs.

[andrew111]

Which of the Conservatives died on Chelmsford, because it looks like there was a personal vote.

I would imagine the Lib Dems will be fighting that one hard

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jun 20, 2021 21:54:45 GMT andrew111 said:

Which of the Conservatives died on Chelmsford, because it looks like there was a personal vote.

Malcolm Watson, who was new at the last election.

I would imagine the Lib Dems will be fighting that one hard

There are quite a few Lib Dem activists in Chelmsford town. Writtle is a separate village but only a short drive away, so there is the chance of mobilising a large team. But the byelection in Moulsham Lodge ward in May showed a pretty big shift away from the Lib Dems in a Chelmsford town ward.

[timmullen1]

Jun 20, 2021 10:13:25 GMT gibbon said:

In view of the Chesham and Amersham result what are the prospects of the Conservatives retaining their seats?

Don’t bet against them “gaining” Penkhull and Stoke either, the outgoing councillor had become a reliable Conservative vote in Council since his exit from the City Independents last year. Penkhull is quite an affluent area - the Chair of the Residents Association is my respiratory consultant - and would probably be fairly reliably Tory; the Stoke part is lean Labour but usually low turnout. However Labour put a real effort in to defeating Conteh in 2019 and got within 50-some votes. There’s also a local environmental health issue accross the border in Newcastle (Walley’s Quarry) that might be hurting Stoke Tories as the Council has declined to take Jonathan Gullis’ “advice” and start legal action against their N-u-L counterparts.

[iang]

On the Newark seats, Keith Melton is quite well known within the Lib Dems. He is the leading figure in the Green LDs. That obviously doesn't by definition mean they are fighting it seriously. Are the two "incoming" Independents linked to the outgoing pair?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Does this answer the question about whether they're a team, and their connection to the outgoing councillors?

[iang]

Jun 28, 2021 20:56:53 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Does this answer the question about whether they're a team, and their connection to the outgoing councillors?

Do I presume correctly that Gill and Irene are the outgoing councillors?

[andrewp]

Jun 28, 2021 21:30:39 GMT iang said:

Jun 28, 2021 20:56:53 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Does this answer the question about whether they're a team, and their connection to the outgoing councillors?

Do I presume correctly that Gill and Irene are the outgoing councillors?

They are.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

ENFIELD LBC; Bush Hill Park (Ind elected as Con disqualified)
Candidates:
ADETULA, Ade (Liberal Democrat)
DOLAN, John (TUSC)
FALLART, Peter David (Conservative)
MAYDON, Benjamin Charles (Green)
MORRISON, Clive Winston (Taking the Initiative Party)
STEVENS, Nia (Labour)

Nov 18by: Con 1540; Lab 828; LD 313; Grn 27; WEP 79; Ind 50

The Green result was actually 127 not 27.

[Tony Otim]

Jun 29, 2021 6:25:51 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

ENFIELD LBC; Bush Hill Park (Ind elected as Con disqualified)
Candidates:
ADETULA, Ade (Liberal Democrat)
DOLAN, John (TUSC)
FALLART, Peter David (Conservative)
MAYDON, Benjamin Charles (Green)
MORRISON, Clive Winston (Taking the Initiative Party)
STEVENS, Nia (Labour)

Nov 18by: Con 1540; Lab 828; LD 313; Grn 27; WEP 79; Ind 50

The Green result was actually 127 not 27.

Now corrected - thanks.

[John Chanin]

Jun 28, 2021 21:30:39 GMT iang said:

Jun 28, 2021 20:56:53 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Does this answer the question about whether they're a team, and their connection to the outgoing councillors?

Do I presume correctly that Gill and Irene are the outgoing councillors?

And presumably the owners of Gill and Irene’s food pantry, who get a prominent puff.

[Robert Waller]

Gill and Irene's pantry:

www.newarkadvertiser.co.uk/news/pantry-opens-up-to-bridge-poverty-gap-9128349/

I partly grew up in Bridge ward.

It could fairly be described as a 'bit of a dump' then ...

... even though some other children tried to persuade me when I was about four that Princess Margaret lived on our council estate, on Wolsey Road in this ward (this would be circa 1959)!

[Chris from Brum]

Andrew Teale's Previews are here.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Penkhull and Stoke turnout 30.64%

[Davıd Boothroyd]

ISLINGTON Tollington

Mick Gilgunn (Labour Party) 1,243
Jonathan Ward (Green Party) 730
Vanessa Margaret Carson (Conservative Party Candidate) 127
Jane Nicolov (Liberal Democrats) 94

Turnout 22%

[Tony Otim]

Jul 1, 2021 22:20:00 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

ISLINGTON Tollington

Mick Gilgunn (Labour Party) 1,243
Jonathan Ward (Green Party) 730
Vanessa Margaret Carson (Conservative Party Candidate) 127
Jane Nicolov (Liberal Democrats) 94

Turnout 22%

Lab 56.7 (-12.7)
Grn 33.3 (+16.4)
Con 5.8 (+0.4)
LD 4.3 (-3.9)

(Changes vs top vote in 2018)

[heslingtonian]

Jul 1, 2021 22:28:20 GMT Tony Otim said:

Jul 1, 2021 22:20:00 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

ISLINGTON Tollington

Mick Gilgunn (Labour Party) 1,243
Jonathan Ward (Green Party) 730
Vanessa Margaret Carson (Conservative Party Candidate) 127
Jane Nicolov (Liberal Democrats) 94

Turnout 22%

Lab 56.7 (-12.7)
Grn 33.3 (+16.4)
Con 5.8 (+0.4)
LD 4.3 (-3.9)

(Changes vs top vote in 2018)

A result that should worry plenty of Inner London Labour councillors ahead of next May.