Post by Robert Waller on Jun 15, 2021 10:18:21 GMT
The name of Runnymede, a rather boggy meadow by the Thames in Surrey, has become associated with notions of democracy due to its probable location of King John’s grudging sealing of Magna Carta in 1215 – though this might come as a surprise to the rebellious English baronage intent at the time on recovering and enforcing their feudal privileges. In particular it has become beloved of Americans celebrating the progress of ‘freedom under the law’, and among the memorials is one to the late President Kennedy. That said, this constituency, it major part named for the local authority of Runnymede, does not particularly stand out either for the practice of democracy or freedom. For example, recent turnout levels are only fractionally higher than average in the United Kingdom; and the MP most associated with this seat suffered the forceable ending of his political career at the hands of party discipline. However, we do indeed have plenty of elections here to study.
The seat, covering the whole of the borough of Runnymede and three wards of Elmbridge, was created in 1997 and represented from that date until 2019 by Philip Hammond, who held the posts of Foreign Secretary (2014-16) and Chancellor of the Exchequer from 2016 to 2019 – a year of chaos in government in which he played a leading role in attempting to stymie Brexit (at least “without a deal”). The utter defeat of his faction within the Conservative party resulted in his loss of the whip and thus official candidature in the 2019 general election. Unlike some of his colleagues he neither defected to another party nor stood as an independent, and the result in December (unlike that in the rest of Elmbridge, in Dominic Raab’s seat) was a convincing 18,000 majority for the Borisite Tories in the shape of Ben Spencer. The Tory share did drop by 6% and that of the Liberal Democrats rose by 10%, but even this did not elevate the latter above third place. The reason for this is clear. This constituency is estimated to have voted almost exactly 50-50 in the 2016 referendum unlike clearly pro-Remain seats in Surrey such as Guildford and the aforementioned Esher & Walton.
In turn this political cast of mind is connected with the demographic characteristics of Runnymede and Weybridge. Of course as a Surrey suburban division it is well above average in affluence, owner occupation, income, professional and managerial occupations, and even in terminal educational qualifications. However it is not as ‘highly educated’ as those seats were the Liberal Democrats really surged in 2019 – both Guildford and Esher/Walton had over 40% with degrees back in the 2011 census, for example, whether here it was about one-third. Nor is this seat uniformly ‘posh’, even though it does include some very wealthy pockets indeed, such as around Virginia Water, most notably the estate based on Wentworth golf course. Take the largest communities in Runnymede, for example. The single county division in Chertsey elected Labour county councilors continually in the six elections from 1985 to 2005, reaching a pinnacle of a 77% share. Addlestone has been more solidly Conservative but is even more down-market, for example having between 25 and 28% with degrees in its various wards. Egham actually saw a Labour county council gain in the deferred elections of May 2021 – one of only two victories in the whole of Surrey, the other being Stanwell in Spelthorne.
Sure, the Weybridge section is known for harbouring one of the most exclusive (and resolutely private) estates in England at St George’s Hill (ironically the site of the proto-communist Diggers in the mid 17th century), for nouveau riche Burwood Park (residence of the late Max Clifford), and for being the birthplace of that typical ‘English rose’, Julie Andrews; but there are even small pockets of social housing too, such as the Locke King estate near Brooklands (Hugh Locke King was the founder of that historic motor race track). Weybridge Riverside ward was retained by the Liberal Democrats in the May 2021 Elmbridge council elections. Another feature adding to disparity is the relatively high student presence in the seat, largely because of the presence of the grandiose campus of the Royal Holloway (and Bedford) College of the University of London near Egham and Englefield Green.
Some disparity, but overall Runnymede and Weybridge has been a very Conservative seat. As suggested above, the slightly lower educational and social statistics would have helped keep the lead massive in 2019. However that may well be the last contest this constituency will see. The initial proposals of the Boundary Commission for England in June 2021 proposed that a cross county boundary seat be created, which would take the Egham area of Surrey and place it in a Windsor division predominantly based in Berkshire. As the Runnymede meadows would be included, that name would disappear from constituency nomenclature. The remainder of the seat would largely survive but under the name of Weybridge and Chertsey, which would also annex the Cobham and Downside ward from Dominic Raab’s constituency; why ‘Weybridge’ is promoted to lead the title is unclear, and ‘Chertsey’ though surfacing after an absence of a quarter of a century now takes second billing, unlike the former Chertsey and Walton. Needless to say, this will be a stronghold for the Conservative party, and Ben Spencer should be able seamlessly to extend his tenure in the Commons, though whether he will achieve the high offices of his predecessor is as yet unclear.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 16.7% 329/650
Owner-occupied 69.6% 232/650
Private rented 16.6% 209/650
Social rented 11.5% 525/650
White 89.0% 454/650
Black 1.0% 268/650
Asian 6.7% 176/650
Managerial & professional 40.7%
Routine & Semi-routine 15.8%
Degree level 33.8% 107/650
No qualifications 16.6% 574/650
Students 12.2% 96/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 68.1% 227/573
Private rented 20.3% 197/573
Social rented 11.6% 447/573
White 83.8%
Black 1.7%
Asian 8.8%
Managerial & professional 40.7% 97/573
Routine & Semi-routine 15.2% 522/573
Degree level 39.3% 118/573
No qualifications 13.4% 497/573
General Election 2019: Runnymede and Weybridge
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ben Spencer 29,262 54.9 -6.0
Labour Robert King 10,992 20.6 -5.3
Liberal Democrats Rob O'Carroll 9,236 17.3 +10.0
Green Benjamin Smith 1,876 3.5 +0.9
Independent Stewart Mackay 777 1.5
Independent Lorna Rowland 670 1.3
UKIP Nicholas Wood 476 0.9 -2.4
C Majority 18,270 34.3 -0.7
Turnout 53,289 69.0 +0.9
Conservative hold
Swings
0.4 C to Lab
8.0 C to LD
The seat, covering the whole of the borough of Runnymede and three wards of Elmbridge, was created in 1997 and represented from that date until 2019 by Philip Hammond, who held the posts of Foreign Secretary (2014-16) and Chancellor of the Exchequer from 2016 to 2019 – a year of chaos in government in which he played a leading role in attempting to stymie Brexit (at least “without a deal”). The utter defeat of his faction within the Conservative party resulted in his loss of the whip and thus official candidature in the 2019 general election. Unlike some of his colleagues he neither defected to another party nor stood as an independent, and the result in December (unlike that in the rest of Elmbridge, in Dominic Raab’s seat) was a convincing 18,000 majority for the Borisite Tories in the shape of Ben Spencer. The Tory share did drop by 6% and that of the Liberal Democrats rose by 10%, but even this did not elevate the latter above third place. The reason for this is clear. This constituency is estimated to have voted almost exactly 50-50 in the 2016 referendum unlike clearly pro-Remain seats in Surrey such as Guildford and the aforementioned Esher & Walton.
In turn this political cast of mind is connected with the demographic characteristics of Runnymede and Weybridge. Of course as a Surrey suburban division it is well above average in affluence, owner occupation, income, professional and managerial occupations, and even in terminal educational qualifications. However it is not as ‘highly educated’ as those seats were the Liberal Democrats really surged in 2019 – both Guildford and Esher/Walton had over 40% with degrees back in the 2011 census, for example, whether here it was about one-third. Nor is this seat uniformly ‘posh’, even though it does include some very wealthy pockets indeed, such as around Virginia Water, most notably the estate based on Wentworth golf course. Take the largest communities in Runnymede, for example. The single county division in Chertsey elected Labour county councilors continually in the six elections from 1985 to 2005, reaching a pinnacle of a 77% share. Addlestone has been more solidly Conservative but is even more down-market, for example having between 25 and 28% with degrees in its various wards. Egham actually saw a Labour county council gain in the deferred elections of May 2021 – one of only two victories in the whole of Surrey, the other being Stanwell in Spelthorne.
Sure, the Weybridge section is known for harbouring one of the most exclusive (and resolutely private) estates in England at St George’s Hill (ironically the site of the proto-communist Diggers in the mid 17th century), for nouveau riche Burwood Park (residence of the late Max Clifford), and for being the birthplace of that typical ‘English rose’, Julie Andrews; but there are even small pockets of social housing too, such as the Locke King estate near Brooklands (Hugh Locke King was the founder of that historic motor race track). Weybridge Riverside ward was retained by the Liberal Democrats in the May 2021 Elmbridge council elections. Another feature adding to disparity is the relatively high student presence in the seat, largely because of the presence of the grandiose campus of the Royal Holloway (and Bedford) College of the University of London near Egham and Englefield Green.
Some disparity, but overall Runnymede and Weybridge has been a very Conservative seat. As suggested above, the slightly lower educational and social statistics would have helped keep the lead massive in 2019. However that may well be the last contest this constituency will see. The initial proposals of the Boundary Commission for England in June 2021 proposed that a cross county boundary seat be created, which would take the Egham area of Surrey and place it in a Windsor division predominantly based in Berkshire. As the Runnymede meadows would be included, that name would disappear from constituency nomenclature. The remainder of the seat would largely survive but under the name of Weybridge and Chertsey, which would also annex the Cobham and Downside ward from Dominic Raab’s constituency; why ‘Weybridge’ is promoted to lead the title is unclear, and ‘Chertsey’ though surfacing after an absence of a quarter of a century now takes second billing, unlike the former Chertsey and Walton. Needless to say, this will be a stronghold for the Conservative party, and Ben Spencer should be able seamlessly to extend his tenure in the Commons, though whether he will achieve the high offices of his predecessor is as yet unclear.
2011 Census
Age 65+ 16.7% 329/650
Owner-occupied 69.6% 232/650
Private rented 16.6% 209/650
Social rented 11.5% 525/650
White 89.0% 454/650
Black 1.0% 268/650
Asian 6.7% 176/650
Managerial & professional 40.7%
Routine & Semi-routine 15.8%
Degree level 33.8% 107/650
No qualifications 16.6% 574/650
Students 12.2% 96/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 68.1% 227/573
Private rented 20.3% 197/573
Social rented 11.6% 447/573
White 83.8%
Black 1.7%
Asian 8.8%
Managerial & professional 40.7% 97/573
Routine & Semi-routine 15.2% 522/573
Degree level 39.3% 118/573
No qualifications 13.4% 497/573
General Election 2019: Runnymede and Weybridge
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Ben Spencer 29,262 54.9 -6.0
Labour Robert King 10,992 20.6 -5.3
Liberal Democrats Rob O'Carroll 9,236 17.3 +10.0
Green Benjamin Smith 1,876 3.5 +0.9
Independent Stewart Mackay 777 1.5
Independent Lorna Rowland 670 1.3
UKIP Nicholas Wood 476 0.9 -2.4
C Majority 18,270 34.3 -0.7
Turnout 53,289 69.0 +0.9
Conservative hold
Swings
0.4 C to Lab
8.0 C to LD
