OWL
Forum Regular
Posts: 168
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Post by OWL on Jun 2, 2021 18:51:01 GMT
An attempt at Westminster North. Much, no doubt, to be added, not least census statistics which I am unable to find.
Government and power may perhaps be the first things which come to mind when the name "Westminster" is uttered. This, however, is to confuse Westminster - or, more specifically, the St James' ward thereof - with the constituency Westminster North. Such are the preserve of the Cities of London and Westminster which lie south of Westminster North. This caveat is not to abjure the manifold blessings of Westminster North, amongst which can be listed Lord's Cricket Ground, the most scenic parts of the Regent's Canal, the stucco terraces of Lancaster Gate, St Mary Magdalene church in Royal Oak and St Mark’s on Hamilton Terrace.
By way of geography, the constituency comprises the northerly third or so of the City of Westminster, roughly delineated by the A40 and the northern edge of Hyde Park. It spreads from the wealthy St John's Wood in the east and more socially mixed Lisson Grove with its inter-war housing through the waterways of affluent Little Venice and the brick apartments of Maida Vale to the more deprived wards of Harrow Road, Westbourne and Queen's Park. The housing in this stretch is largely two-storey brick, becoming slightly more dilapidated as one moves west; always under the watchful eye of St Augustine's Anglo-Catholic spire. Finally one goes down towards Hyde Park through the stucco-white of Lancaster Gate and Bayswater.
The constituency was previously made up of the two Paddingtons (amalgamated into Paddington for the 1974s and 1979) in the west and St Marylebone in the east. The former tended to be fairly safe Labour seats - a much reported gain in 1979 notwithstanding - and the latter a very safe Conservative seat. From 1983-1997 there existed a constituency of the same name and much the same area. This was a fairly marginal Tory seat throughout those 18 years of rule; Labour coming within 4 points in 1983 with a poor Alliance presence. In 1997 the seat lost its Lancaster Gate/Bayswater area and gained much of North Kensington to create a safe Labour seat in the Blair years (and, most likely, a marginal Labour seat in the Thatcher years). In 2010 Westminster North was recreated with the addition of Bayswater and much publicised as a Tory hopeful in 2010. Despite this, Karen Buck, MP for its previous iteration since 1997, held on by 5 points; with much the same story in 2015. Westminster North, voting about 70% Remain, was swept up in the red tide of London in 2017; Labour expanding their majority to 25 points and posting another good score in 2019, albeit with both main parties down slightly at the expense of a Lib Dem near-tripling.
Politically, Labour's base is unsurprisingly the more ethnically mixed and socially deprived wards in the west (as well as Church Street) where they regularly score near 70% in local council elections. Bayswater (the centre of the Lib Dem vote at local elections) and Lancaster Gate were Tory in 2010 and 2015 but have since seen strong swings to Labour; as has Maida Vale. Little Venice and Regent's Park are now very marginal in general elections; the former most likely narrowly voting Labour in the general and the latter Tory, but both remaining Tory at the local level, including mayoral elections. St John's Wood (Abbey Road ward), with its large American expat community, many residents employed in financial services and considerable Jewish population hostile to Jeremy Corbyn has remained solidly Conservative; likely voting near 55% in the 2019 general election.
Without descending into stereotype, it seems fair to say that much of the eastern half of Westminster North is populated by Cameron Tories: socially liberal, pro-European Conservatives who possibly voted for New Labour and are somewhat disillusioned with the recent direction of the party. Loyalty to the party seems to be determined by wealth, the Tory vote holding up better in the more affluent areas. It also seems fair to say that much of the western half is fairly generic London Labour: relatively deprived and with a large ethnic minority population.
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 2, 2021 19:33:04 GMT
2011 Census
Age 65+ 10.6% 594/650
Owner-occupied 30.4% 636/650
Private rented 36.8% 3/650
Social rented 29.7% 54/650
White 56.3% 613/650
Black 9.7% 48/650
Asian 15.1% 73/650
Born in EU member states up to 2001 10.2% 4/650
Passport N America and Caribbean 5.0% 5/650
No people in household have English as main language 22.4% 8/650
Jewish 3.7% 13/650
No cars in household 61.8% 10/650
Managerial & professional 44.1%
Routine & Semi-routine 13.8%
Employed in financial and insurance activities 15.3% 5/650
Employed in professional, scientific and technical activities 16.8% 8/650
Degree level 47.3% 19/650
No qualifications 15.3% 599/650
Students 11.0% 121/650
2021 Census
Owner occupied 27.9% 565/573
Private rented 40.7% 5/573
Social rented 31.4% 22/573
White 51.3%
Black 9.9%
Asian 16.3%
Jewish 3.1% 15/650
Managerial & professional 41.7% 81/573
Routine & Semi-routine 14.1% 544/573
Degree level 55.1% 21/573
No qualifications 14.9% 429/573
General Election 2019: Westminster North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Karen Buck 23,240 54.2 -5.7
Conservative Jamie Macfarlane 12,481 29.1 -4.2
Liberal Democrats George Lee 5,593 13.0 +7.8
Green Holly Robinson 1,064 2.5 +1.1
Brexit Party Cyrus Parvin 418 1.0
CPA Gabriela Fajardo Palacios 115 0.3
Lab Majority 10,759 25.1 -1.5
Turnout 42,911 65.5 -2.3
Registered electors 2019 65,519
Labour hold
Swing 0.7 Lab to C
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 2, 2021 19:39:56 GMT
I had failed to notice that this was another of the deleted entries - otherwise I’d have done it myself as I know the area well. Jenny Edwards who was the losing Labour candidate in 1987 and 1992, and a councillor for Church Street, was a friend of mine, and I canvassed for her.
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 2, 2021 21:58:08 GMT
I had failed to notice that this was another of the deleted entries - otherwise I’d have done it myself as I know the area well. Jenny Edwards who was the losing Labour candidate in 1987 and 1992, and a councillor for Church Street, was a friend of mine, and I canvassed for her. Well, it's on the Seats never done (or deleted) and no thread section in the outstanding profiles entry ... Perhaps John could add any of his most valued insights into Westminster North. It really is an outlier of a seat in many ways, as the stats I found suggest. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 3, 2021 5:32:30 GMT
I had failed to notice that this was another of the deleted entries - otherwise I’d have done it myself as I know the area well. Jenny Edwards who was the losing Labour candidate in 1987 and 1992, and a councillor for Church Street, was a friend of mine, and I canvassed for her. Well, it's on the Seats never done (or deleted) and no thread section in the outstanding profiles entry ... Perhaps John could add any of his most valued insights into Westminster North. It really is an outlier of a seat in many ways, as the stats I found suggest. Sorry, a double failure on my part, both to notice it was on the deleted list and do it, and to fail to notice it was on the deleted list when I made my post above. I have now edited the outstanding posts thread accordingly. I'll think about whether I have anything to add to a perfectly decent profile by OWL |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jun 3, 2021 9:17:22 GMT
Thank you, John, and I also would like to add my praise for an excellent first effort by a new contributor OWL. I do hope this encourages more people to share their local expertise with us or just try writing these profiles. We still have around 150 on the to do list. But I shall also say that I cannot let John's comments about his 'failures' pass without saying that failure would be the last word I would associate with his work on this 'online Almanac'. He has in fact been quite superb throughout, writing, I believe, more profiles than anyone else, and to a quality I would stress is higher than my own! |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 25, 2022 10:42:51 GMT
In the initial proposals by the boundary commission this seat would have ceased to exist, being split three ways. The North West wards (‘Westbourne’) was to be added to Kensington and the South West (‘Bayswater’) to Westminster & Chelsea East. The largest element with around 30,000 voters would be linked with six Camden wards in effectively a new seat. The Westminster North element included would be a minority of that new seat and is a minority of this seat, though it very loosely would count as the successor seat as the Camden wards themselves come from two different seats, roughly 20,000 each from Hampstead & Kilburn and Holborn & St Pancras. The constituency would run right through the middle of Hampstead – an absurd seat with a suitably absurd name: ‘Camden Town & St John’s Wood’.
The revised proposals are radically different and represent a huge improvement though this seat is still heavily redrawn and renamed.
The core of the seat remains as the northern wards of the former Paddington borough. Abbey Road and Regents Park are lost to the Cities and Bayswater and Lancaster Gate to Kensington. There is some Conservative support in Little Venice and Maida Vale but on the whole the area remaining is strongly Labour.
Added to this will be 34,000 voters from the Southern edge of Brent – Kilburn and Queens Park coming from the Hampstead & Kilburn seat and Harlesden & Kensal Green from Brent Central. These are massively safe Labour wards and this will be an ultra-safe Labour seat.
Harlesden is a little out on a limb here and Lisson Grove (Church Street) looks lonely on the ‘wrong’ side of the A5 (though obviously well connected to neighbouring parts of the Edgware Road neighbourhood). Overall, this constituency has a strong coherence, linked together by the Harrow and Edgware Roads and a good demographic consistency. Though containing pockets of wealth, it is generally a deprived area with a large black population and high proportion of social housing, including grim estates in Lisson Grove, South Kilburn and Kensal Town.
Labour may not be too happy at what looks like a ‘packed gerrymander’ as Westminster North is already a safe seat for them. This concentrates too much of their support in a single seat when there are neighbouring marginals and the Conservatives will conversely be happy to have the likes of Abbey Road and Regents Park shoring them up elsewhere rather than wasted here.
The proposed name is Queen’s Park & Little Venice. The mention of Little Venice seems unnecessary as it is hardly a major London district nor well known. Maida Vale would be better if the name really needed to be double-barrelled though really as there are wards called Queens Park on either side of the Brent/Westminster divide and that area forms the geographic centre of the constituency, with a name recognition assisted by the existence of a football team named for the area (albeit they play in the Hammersmith constituency), ‘Queens Park’ alone would be a perfectly good name.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 27, 2022 22:37:46 GMT
Notional result 2019 on the proposed new boundaries (Queen's Park & Little Venice) | Lab | 29997 | 64.5% | | Con | 8829 | 19.0% | | LD | 5945 | 12.8% | | Grn | 1212 | 2.6% | | BxP | 464 | 1.0% | | Oth | 74 | 0.2% |
| | | | Majority | 21168 | 45.5% |
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Post by spinach on Dec 26, 2022 21:27:56 GMT
Church Street - 16.6% Arab
MSOA with the highest Arab % population in England and Wales 2021.
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 27, 2022 8:26:41 GMT
Church Street - 16.6% Arab MSOA with the highest Arab % population in England and Wales 2021. No surprise there - the largest arab populations are known to be in central London. The largest constituency outside London, sitting 7th, is my own constituency of Hall Green. I don't have the MSOAs to hand, but I'd guess the one in Balsall Heath and neighbouring Sparkbrook, will be around 10%. |
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Post by batman on Dec 27, 2022 11:04:05 GMT
I'm a little surprised that it isn't the area between Marble Arch & Edgware Road stations, slightly further South.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 27, 2022 11:54:21 GMT
The highest LSOA is, I think, 015E which is in Paddington and St George's Fields MSOA and includes the west side of Edgware Road between Connaught Street and Burwood Place. The Arab proportion there (or should I say here) is 28.4%. But the MSOAs being wider areas means it gets averaged out with the much less Arab areas of the Church Commissioners' Hyde Park Estate.
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Post by bjornhattan on Dec 27, 2022 12:01:04 GMT
The highest LSOA is, I think, 015E which is in Paddington and St George's Fields MSOA and includes the west side of Edgware Road between Connaught Street and Burwood Place. The Arab proportion there (or should I say here) is 28.4%. But the MSOAs being wider areas means it gets averaged out with the much less Arab areas of the Church Commissioners' Hyde Park Estate. Is there any particular reason why neighbourhoods along thhe Edgware Road have such concentrations of Arab residents? This is something that can be seen to a greater or lesser extent all along the road - from Marble Arch up to at least Cricklewood and Dollis Hill. This was the case in the 2011 census too, so I presume it has been the case for many years. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 27, 2022 12:29:49 GMT
The highest LSOA is, I think, 015E which is in Paddington and St George's Fields MSOA and includes the west side of Edgware Road between Connaught Street and Burwood Place. The Arab proportion there (or should I say here) is 28.4%. But the MSOAs being wider areas means it gets averaged out with the much less Arab areas of the Church Commissioners' Hyde Park Estate. Is there any particular reason why neighbourhoods along thhe Edgware Road have such concentrations of Arab residents? This is something that can be seen to a greater or lesser extent all along the road - from Marble Arch up to at least Cricklewood and Dollis Hill. This was the case in the 2011 census too, so I presume it has been the case for many years. There was some Arab population on Edgware Road from the 1950s but it did not become an established community until the 1970s. Don't know why; it may be that just one Arab restaurant attracted a customer base and it grew from there. London's like that - why are the Greeks and Turks all up Green Lane? Why are the Portugese in Kennington and Stockwell? Why are the Koreans in New Malden? |
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 27, 2022 12:46:29 GMT
Is there any particular reason why neighbourhoods along thhe Edgware Road have such concentrations of Arab residents? This is something that can be seen to a greater or lesser extent all along the road - from Marble Arch up to at least Cricklewood and Dollis Hill. This was the case in the 2011 census too, so I presume it has been the case for many years. There was some Arab population on Edgware Road from the 1950s but it did not become an established community until the 1970s. Don't know why; it may be that just one Arab restaurant attracted a customer base and it grew from there. London's like that - why are the Greeks and Turks all up Green Lane? Why are the Portugese in Kennington and Stockwell? Why are the Koreans in New Malden? There's a 2006 book called "Departures and Arrivals" about the Turkish Cypriot community in North London which traces the first arrivals back as far as the 1930s. The Green Lanes area started on the way down status wise at this point, so it may well be as simple as the relatively cheap nature of the accommodation at the time. The Portugese community in Stockwell is probably down to the same sort of factors, but I suppose there must have been a couple of pioneers who moved to a particular area.
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Post by spinach on Dec 27, 2022 19:09:31 GMT
I'm a little surprised that it isn't the area between Marble Arch & Edgware Road stations, slightly further South. Paddington and St Georges Field - 11.9% Arab Brystanston and Dorest Square - 7.8% Arab City of Westminster - 7.6% (highest in country) |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Dec 27, 2022 19:47:42 GMT
Church Street - 16.6% Arab MSOA with the highest Arab % population in England and Wales 2021. Why? |
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Post by johnloony on Dec 27, 2022 19:51:45 GMT
Church Street - 16.6% Arab MSOA with the highest Arab % population in England and Wales 2021. Why? because all the others are lower |
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Post by ClevelandYorks on Dec 27, 2022 20:05:33 GMT
because all the others are lower I'll clarify. Why is there such a concentration of Arabs in these places and which Arab countries do they tend to come from? EDIT: doesn't matter anyway as it's already been asked. |
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Post by batman on Dec 27, 2022 20:09:39 GMT
I think you're not looking predominantly at Saudi Arabia, but a variety of other Arab countries ranging from Morocco to Kuwait (though Kuwaitis mainly don't have London as a main residence I suspect). When Morocco recently won their big football match in the World Cup, there was a huge parade down the Edgware Road, both on foot & in cars & vans, of flag-waving Moroccan fans singing & letting off hooters etc. You could hear it from several streets away (I was working in the area that evening)
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