Airdrie and Shotts

[Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith]

May 14, 2021 11:09:17 GMT David said:

I am against the 'Whitehead Solution' because I find it difficult to make an educated guess as to where some rando will actually poll. Besides, I did much better in the second one.😉

The difficulty is part of the fun.

[Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith]

May 14, 2021 10:53:36 GMT yellowperil said:

May 14, 2021 9:13:09 GMT Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith said:

Thank you all who entered, even those who didn’t put down all candidates and left me with decisions to make.

For complete clarity

1. I used Britain Elects percentages without checking them
2. Where people didn’t mention parties, I took the remaining percentage left unallocated and divided it evenly between the unmentioned parties for the unmentioned parties % allocation.
a. For AJS this = 0.5%
b. For David this = 0.33%
c. For mysticrobin this = 0.66%
d. For Peter L this = 0%
3. For each party not mentioned I allocated 12.5 faults (100 faults divided by the number of candidates, 8.)

4. SirBenjamin predicted for Reclaim not ReformUK so got a 12.5 penalty for this on top of the inaccuracy of the prediction against ReformUK’s performance.

5. All predictions added up to 100%

The outcome of the Prediction competition for Airdrie and Shotts was therefore thus.
Tony Otim = 8.3
Yellow Peril = 12.7
Greenhert = 16.3
Alien8Ted = 18
Richard Cromwell = 19.1
Sirbenjamin = 34.9
David = 48.83
Mysticrobin = 50.37
AJS = 58.4
Peter L = 66.6


The actual accuracy of the predictions, after my unilateral decisions but before any Penalties was this, if anyone is interested.

Tony Otim = 8.3
AJS = 8.4
David = 11.33
Yellow Peril = 12.7
Mysticrobin = 12.87
Greenhert = 16.3
Alien8Ted = 18
Richard Cromwell = 19.1
Sirbenjamin = 22.4
Peter L = 29.1


Congratulations to Tony Otim who wins, with or without penalties imposed, a really fine performance sir.

Yes, congrats to Tony, who looks a winner whichever way you call it. I like the results with the swingeing penalties on those who couldn't really be bothered to pick between UKIP, SDP, Unionist and whichever party it was beginning with R this month. What one might  call the Whitehead solution, and it puts me in second place! To be fair, though it is just  a bit extreme, and the second list is probably more like how we did really, though I note there are no penalty points for wrong winner, which means a stay of execution on Richard Cromwell .

I've never liked the penalty for getting the winner wrong rule, that's why it isn't there. Awaits Predictions Competition Electoral Petition.

The not putting every party down penalty is quite swingeing I guess, but that's the fault of the MRLP for not putting up 17 candidates, if they had then the penalty per candidate would only have been 4 points.

If I do another constituency competition competition again, I'll put a few more rules up at the beginning of the thread.

I agree the without penalties ranking is most accurate list in terms of actual predicting, hence why I'm much further down that list. 

[sirbenjamin]

May 14, 2021 9:13:09 GMT Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith said:

4. SirBenjamin predicted for Reclaim not ReformUK so got a 12.5 penalty for this on top of the inaccuracy of the prediction against ReformUK’s performance.

I'm *still* getting those two mixed up?!? FFS... How many times do I need the difference explained to me?

[independentukip]

May 15, 2021 22:02:53 GMT sirbenjamin said:

May 14, 2021 9:13:09 GMT Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith said:

4. SirBenjamin predicted for Reclaim not ReformUK so got a 12.5 penalty for this on top of the inaccuracy of the prediction against ReformUK’s performance.

I'm *still* getting those two mixed up?!? FFS... How many times do I need the difference explained to me?

My summary is:

Reclaim = Lawrence Fox from the telly

Reform = updated UKIP