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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on May 14, 2021 11:15:31 GMT
I am against the 'Whitehead Solution' because I find it difficult to make an educated guess as to where some rando will actually poll. Besides, I did much better in the second one.š
The difficulty is part of the fun. 
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on May 14, 2021 11:27:08 GMT
Thank you all who entered, even those who didnāt put down all candidates and left me with decisions to make.
For complete clarity
1. I used Britain Elects percentages without checking them 2. Where people didnāt mention parties, I took the remaining percentage left unallocated and divided it evenly between the unmentioned parties for the unmentioned parties % allocation. a. For AJS this = 0.5% b. For David this = 0.33% c. For mysticrobin this = 0.66% d. For Peter L this = 0% 3. For each party not mentioned I allocated 12.5 faults (100 faults divided by the number of candidates, 8.) 4. SirBenjamin predicted for Reclaim not ReformUK so got a 12.5 penalty for this on top of the inaccuracy of the prediction against ReformUKās performance. 5. All predictions added up to 100%
The outcome of the Prediction competition for Airdrie and Shotts was therefore thus. Tony Otim = 8.3Yellow Peril = 12.7 Greenhert = 16.3 Alien8Ted = 18 Richard Cromwell = 19.1 Sirbenjamin = 34.9 David = 48.83 Mysticrobin = 50.37 AJS = 58.4 Peter L = 66.6 The actual accuracy of the predictions, after my unilateral decisions but before any Penalties was this, if anyone is interested. Tony Otim = 8.3 AJS = 8.4 David = 11.33 Yellow Peril = 12.7 Mysticrobin = 12.87 Greenhert = 16.3 Alien8Ted = 18 Richard Cromwell = 19.1 Sirbenjamin = 22.4 Peter L = 29.1 Congratulations to Tony Otim who wins, with or without penalties imposed, a really fine performance sir. Yes, congrats to Tony, who looks a winner whichever way you call it. I like the results with the swingeing penalties on those who couldn't really be bothered to pick between UKIP, SDP, Unionist and whichever party it was beginning with R this month. What one might call the Whitehead solution, and it puts me in second place! To be fair, though it is just a bit extreme, and the second list is probably more like how we did really, though I note there are no penalty points for wrong winner, which means a stay of execution on Richard Cromwell .
I've never liked the penalty for getting the winner wrong rule, that's why it isn't there. Awaits Predictions Competition Electoral Petition.
The not putting every party down penalty is quite swingeing I guess, but that's the fault of the MRLP for not putting up 17 candidates, if they had then the penalty per candidate would only have been 4 points. 
If I do another constituency competition competition again, I'll put a few more rules up at the beginning of the thread.
I agree the without penalties ranking is most accurate list in terms of actual predicting, hence why I'm much further down that list.
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sirbenjamin
IFP
There are so many things for which I'd commit suicide; the problem is you only get to do it once.
Posts: 2,520 
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Post by sirbenjamin on May 15, 2021 22:02:53 GMT
4. SirBenjamin predicted for Reclaim not ReformUK so got a 12.5 penalty for this on top of the inaccuracy of the prediction against ReformUKās performance.
I'm *still* getting those two mixed up?!? FFS... How many times do I need the difference explained to me?
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Post by independentukip on May 15, 2021 23:56:26 GMT
4. SirBenjamin predicted for Reclaim not ReformUK so got a 12.5 penalty for this on top of the inaccuracy of the prediction against ReformUKās performance. I'm *still* getting those two mixed up?!? FFS... How many times do I need the difference explained to me?
My summary is: Reclaim = Lawrence Fox from the telly Reform = updated UKIP |
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