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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 11, 2021 11:52:06 GMT
No Prediction thread?
Thursday 13th May 2021 - Airdrie and Shotts
ARRUNDALE, Stephen Phillip: Scottish Liberal Democrats
CALLAGHAN, Ben Ron: Scottish Conservative and Unionist
GREENE, Martyn William: ReformUK – Changing Politics for Good
MACKAY, Donald Murdo: UKIP
MANSON, Neil Peter: Social Democratic Party Scotland
STANLEY, Jonathan Marc: Scottish Unionists
STEVENSON, Kenneth: Scottish Labour Party
QAISAR-JAVED, Anum: Scottish National Party (SNP)
Nearest Percentage for all
I'll calculates results after the Poll, by faults off each percentage.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473 
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Post by peterl on May 11, 2021 15:40:51 GMT
Thanks for organising this one.
I predict:
SNP 52%
Labour 25%
Conservative 20%
Lib Dems 2%
Reform 1%
Remainder 0%
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on May 11, 2021 18:14:36 GMT
This by-election comes 1 day after the 27th anniversary of the Monklands East by-election following the tragic passing of John Smith.
SNP hold with just under 50% and a paltry turnout of 30%
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,532
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on May 11, 2021 19:07:41 GMT
This by-election comes 1 day after the 27th anniversary of the Monklands East by-election following the tragic passing of John Smith. No it isn’t, unless you think that the by-election happened on the same day as the vacancy |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 11, 2021 19:51:37 GMT
QAISAR-JAVED, Anum: Scottish National Party (SNP) 46.7%
STEVENSON, Kenneth: Scottish Labour Party 30.1%
CALLAGHAN, Ben Ron: Scottish Conservative and Unionist 18.7%
ARRUNDALE, Stephen Phillip: Scottish Liberal Democrats 2.1%
MACKAY, Donald Murdo: UKIP 0.9%
GREENE, Martyn William: ReformUK – Changing Politics for Good 0.8%
STANLEY, Jonathan Marc: Scottish Unionists 0.5%
MANSON, Neil Peter: Social Democratic Party Scotland 0.2%
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Post by greenhert on May 11, 2021 22:00:41 GMT
SNP 45%
Labour 31%
Conservative 17%
Liberal Democrats 4.5%
UKIP 0.8%
Reform UK 0.7%
Scottish Unionist Party 0.7%
SDP 0.3%
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on May 12, 2021 6:40:21 GMT
SNP 47%
Labour 35%
Conservative 12%
Liberal Democrat 4%
Scottish Unionist 1%
All the rest >1%.
Turnout should be reasonably high for a by-election due to the recent election engaging voter's minds.
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Post by yellowperil on May 12, 2021 15:02:41 GMT
SNP 48%
Lab 32%
Con 15%
LD 3%
UKIP 1%
Reform 0.4%
S Unionist 0.4%
SDP 0.2%
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on May 12, 2021 15:12:58 GMT
SNP 47.1
Lab 34.7
Con 14.5
LD 1.5
Unionist 1.1
UKIP 0.6
Reform 0.3
SDP 0.2
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Post by Richard Cromwell on May 12, 2021 17:54:42 GMT
Might as well... Reach for the stars, climb every mountain higher, reach for the stars, follow your hearts desire, reach for the stars!
LAB: 40%
SNP: 37%
CON: 19%
LD: 2.2%
SDP: 1%
Reform: 0.5%
Unionist: 0.2%
UKIP: 0.1%
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Post by mysticrobin on May 13, 2021 6:59:50 GMT
SNP 42%
LAB 37%
CON 15%
LD 2%
UNI 2%
REMAINDER 2%
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on May 13, 2021 10:32:08 GMT
Surprised there wasn't a prediction competition for Hartlepool. I just tried to find it but looks like there wasn't one. It was part of a more general competition for last week's elections. |
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on May 13, 2021 14:57:37 GMT
SNP 48.2
Lab 31.3
Con 16.1
LD 1.8
Reclaim 0.9
UKIP 0.8
Union 0.7
SDP 0.2
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Post by yellowperil on May 14, 2021 6:43:25 GMT
Defenestrated Fipplebox -I will be quite interested to see how you resolve the conundrum of allocating scores among those participants who couldn't be bothered to split the spoils among the very minor parties. Who wins the competition might depend on how you interpret those very small deficits. At a quick glance I think 4 people probably score under 10 ( Tony Otim, greenhert, Andrew_S, and Forfarshire Conservative ) and which of those wins probably depends on how you rule on the minor parties. Good luck with that!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 14, 2021 7:39:16 GMT
Defenestrated Fipplebox -I will be quite interested to see how you resolve the conundrum of allocating scores among those participants who couldn't be bothered to split the spoils among the very minor parties. Who wins the competition might depend on how you interpret those very small deficits. At a quick glance I think 4 people probably score under 10 ( Tony Otim, greenhert, Andrew_S, and Forfarshire Conservative ) and which of those wins probably depends on how you rule on the minor parties. Good luck with that! Presumably since there was no candidate called 'Remainder' or 'Oth' or 'All the rest', those who have attributed a score to those non-existent candidates will accrue faults accordingly and then additional faults to the value of the scores achieved by those candidates for whom a prediction was not given. |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 14, 2021 9:13:09 GMT
Thank you all who entered, even those who didn’t put down all candidates and left me with decisions to make.
For complete clarity
1. I used Britain Elects percentages without checking them 2. Where people didn’t mention parties, I took the remaining percentage left unallocated and divided it evenly between the unmentioned parties for the unmentioned parties % allocation. a. For AJS this = 0.5% b. For David this = 0.33% c. For mysticrobin this = 0.66% d. For Peter L this = 0% 3. For each party not mentioned I allocated 12.5 faults (100 faults divided by the number of candidates, 8.) 4. SirBenjamin predicted for Reclaim not ReformUK so got a 12.5 penalty for this on top of the inaccuracy of the prediction against ReformUK’s performance. 5. All predictions added up to 100%
The outcome of the Prediction competition for Airdrie and Shotts was therefore thus. Tony Otim = 8.3Yellow Peril = 12.7 Greenhert = 16.3 Alien8Ted = 18 Richard Cromwell = 19.1 Sirbenjamin = 34.9 David = 48.83 Mysticrobin = 50.37 AJS = 58.4 Peter L = 66.6 The actual accuracy of the predictions, after my unilateral decisions but before any Penalties was this, if anyone is interested. Tony Otim = 8.3 AJS = 8.4 David = 11.33 Yellow Peril = 12.7 Mysticrobin = 12.87 Greenhert = 16.3 Alien8Ted = 18 Richard Cromwell = 19.1 Sirbenjamin = 22.4 Peter L = 29.1 Congratulations to Tony Otim who wins, with or without penalties imposed, a really fine performance sir. |
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Post by yellowperil on May 14, 2021 10:53:36 GMT
Thank you all who entered, even those who didn’t put down all candidates and left me with decisions to make.
For complete clarity
1. I used Britain Elects percentages without checking them 2. Where people didn’t mention parties, I took the remaining percentage left unallocated and divided it evenly between the unmentioned parties for the unmentioned parties % allocation. a. For AJS this = 0.5% b. For David this = 0.33% c. For mysticrobin this = 0.66% d. For Peter L this = 0% 3. For each party not mentioned I allocated 12.5 faults (100 faults divided by the number of candidates, 8.) 4. SirBenjamin predicted for Reclaim not ReformUK so got a 12.5 penalty for this on top of the inaccuracy of the prediction against ReformUK’s performance. 5. All predictions added up to 100%
The outcome of the Prediction competition for Airdrie and Shotts was therefore thus. Tony Otim = 8.3Yellow Peril = 12.7 Greenhert = 16.3 Alien8Ted = 18 Richard Cromwell = 19.1 Sirbenjamin = 34.9 David = 48.83 Mysticrobin = 50.37 AJS = 58.4 Peter L = 66.6 The actual accuracy of the predictions, after my unilateral decisions but before any Penalties was this, if anyone is interested. Tony Otim = 8.3 AJS = 8.4 David = 11.33 Yellow Peril = 12.7 Mysticrobin = 12.87 Greenhert = 16.3 Alien8Ted = 18 Richard Cromwell = 19.1 Sirbenjamin = 22.4 Peter L = 29.1 Congratulations to Tony Otim who wins, with or without penalties imposed, a really fine performance sir. Yes, congrats to Tony, who looks a winner whichever way you call it. I like the results with the swingeing penalties on those who couldn't really be bothered to pick between UKIP, SDP, Unionist and whichever party it was beginning with R this month. What one might call the Whitehead solution, and it puts me in second place! To be fair, though it is just a bit extreme, and the second list is probably more like how we did really, though I note there are no penalty points for wrong winner, which means a stay of execution on Richard Cromwell. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on May 14, 2021 11:09:17 GMT
I am against the 'Whitehead Solution' because I find it difficult to make an educated guess as to where some rando will actually poll. Besides, I did much better in the second one.😉
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 14, 2021 11:15:31 GMT
I am against the 'Whitehead Solution' because I find it difficult to make an educated guess as to where some rando will actually poll. Besides, I did much better in the second one.😉
The difficulty is part of the fun. 
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 14, 2021 11:27:08 GMT
Thank you all who entered, even those who didn’t put down all candidates and left me with decisions to make.
For complete clarity
1. I used Britain Elects percentages without checking them 2. Where people didn’t mention parties, I took the remaining percentage left unallocated and divided it evenly between the unmentioned parties for the unmentioned parties % allocation. a. For AJS this = 0.5% b. For David this = 0.33% c. For mysticrobin this = 0.66% d. For Peter L this = 0% 3. For each party not mentioned I allocated 12.5 faults (100 faults divided by the number of candidates, 8.) 4. SirBenjamin predicted for Reclaim not ReformUK so got a 12.5 penalty for this on top of the inaccuracy of the prediction against ReformUK’s performance. 5. All predictions added up to 100%
The outcome of the Prediction competition for Airdrie and Shotts was therefore thus. Tony Otim = 8.3Yellow Peril = 12.7 Greenhert = 16.3 Alien8Ted = 18 Richard Cromwell = 19.1 Sirbenjamin = 34.9 David = 48.83 Mysticrobin = 50.37 AJS = 58.4 Peter L = 66.6 The actual accuracy of the predictions, after my unilateral decisions but before any Penalties was this, if anyone is interested. Tony Otim = 8.3 AJS = 8.4 David = 11.33 Yellow Peril = 12.7 Mysticrobin = 12.87 Greenhert = 16.3 Alien8Ted = 18 Richard Cromwell = 19.1 Sirbenjamin = 22.4 Peter L = 29.1 Congratulations to Tony Otim who wins, with or without penalties imposed, a really fine performance sir. Yes, congrats to Tony, who looks a winner whichever way you call it. I like the results with the swingeing penalties on those who couldn't really be bothered to pick between UKIP, SDP, Unionist and whichever party it was beginning with R this month. What one might call the Whitehead solution, and it puts me in second place! To be fair, though it is just a bit extreme, and the second list is probably more like how we did really, though I note there are no penalty points for wrong winner, which means a stay of execution on Richard Cromwell .
I've never liked the penalty for getting the winner wrong rule, that's why it isn't there. Awaits Predictions Competition Electoral Petition.
The not putting every party down penalty is quite swingeing I guess, but that's the fault of the MRLP for not putting up 17 candidates, if they had then the penalty per candidate would only have been 4 points. 
If I do another constituency competition competition again, I'll put a few more rules up at the beginning of the thread.
I agree the without penalties ranking is most accurate list in terms of actual predicting, hence why I'm much further down that list.
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