Tooting

[sirbenjamin]

The Tooting constituency is in inner South London, taking in seven wards of the London Borough of Wandsworth, though its recent political history is, in essence, the polar opposite of the ‘flagship Tory borough’ in which it lies. Tooting (and its predecessor seat Wandsworth Central) has been held by the same party since 1964, but decades of unbroken Labour representation don't begin to tell the eventful history of a constituency that has seen a number of close, sometimes acrimonious contests, and controversial candidate appointments. Conversely Wandsworth council has been Conservative-controlled for over 40 years.

The name of the seat is arguably less than satisfactory as it includes Wandsworth Common, Earlsfield and the residential fringes of Balham, Streatham and Wimbledon, while the Southern part of Tooting itself is actually on the other side of the border with Merton – demarcated by the River Graveney - and is in the Mitcham & Morden constituency. One of the component wards is also simply called ‘Tooting’, and there are two Graveney Wards in different boroughs, facing off over the River and generally adding to the geopolitical untidiness, at least for those like me who care about such things!

In the 1970s the sitcom 'Citizen Smith' introduced Tooting to a wider audience as the home of revolutionary Marxism, while in reality the MP at the time was the less radical Tom Cox, a low-profile backbencher on the mid-left of the party who seldom appeared on television demanding freedom for the area, but quietly went about representing it for an impressive 35 years, often with quite small majorities (just 1,441 in 1987).

Having successfully defended Tooting eight times, Cox’s eventual successor in 2005 was Sadiq Khan, who built a high profile in a relatively short space of time and after just 11 years as an MP became Mayor of London, triggering a By Election in a key marginal on the day that MP Jo Cox was tragically murdered, which added to the febrile atmosphere on the day.

For several elections, particularly the General Elections of 2010 and 2015, the Conservatives targeted this seat hard, only to come away empty-handed, and this was the case again in the By Election, the ‘middle one’ of candidate Dan Watkins’ trio of defeats here. (The Conservative viewpoint is generally that if Watkins, rather than the controversial Mark Clarke, had been the candidate in 2010, Khan would likely have been defeated.)

In a seat with notable Asian and Polish populations and significant numbers of NHS staff working at St George’s Hospital, Labour’s candidate Rosena Allin-Khan, a Polish-Asian NHS doctor (and Bedford ward councillor) appeared an extremely cynical choice of candidate for a party spooked by narrow escapes. One way or another, the selection proved effective for the By Election, with Allin-Khan achieving a substantial majority of 6,537 on a reduced turn-out, following two GEs where Sadiq’s lead had fallen below 3,000 votes. In 2017 and 2019 Allin-Khan was able to enjoy a majority far more comfortable than her predecessors had managed as the Tory focus switched away from the seat.

In the early 2000s, foreign language ‘translations’ of election literature distributed in the area and not subject to scrutiny became the subject of controversy, given the significance of the Asian vote. Following the threat of a lawsuit, local election agents agreed to clean up their act and whether or not underhanded smear tactics had had any effect in the past, they would be unnecessary now – though there are still people in possession of evidence that could make life difficult for Mr. Khan. If ‘Freedom for Tooting’ had been translated into Urdu, it would probably come out as ‘Free hospital treatment for your family in Tooting will end if the Conservatives are elected’.

Sadiq still lives in the seat, in semi-leafy Furzedown at the Southern end, and his presence has undoubtedly turned the ward from a Tory-leaning marginal into one that is safe for Labour, making the parliamentary seat safer in the process. Furzedown ward includes Graveney school, one of the largest in the country, whose alumni include broadcaster Naga Munchetty, frequent local Communist Party candidate Phil Brand and, umm, me. Education and Healthcare are important employers, which may explain why the seat was such a tough nut for the Tories to crack, even at the height of their pre-Brexit popularity in London.

At the Northern end of the seat, Wandsworth Common ward has traditionally been one of the strongest for the Conservatives in the borough. It extends almost to Wandsworth town centre and the River Thames and with green public spaces and owner-occupancy predominating is not dissimilar in character to the bits of Furzedown and Bedford wards around Tooting Bec common.

In between the Commons on the fringes of the seat the area is Tooting proper, along with Earlsfield and bits of Balham. Here the housing is denser with a greater proportion of socially and privately rented property as the A24 and the Northern Line running beneath it provides a convenient, if not particularly rapid, route into Central London. The area has become younger and trendier in recent years, and while this was vaguely positive demographic news for the Conservatives during the Cameron era, traditional working class Labour voters are now more likely to be replaced by contemporary middle class Labour voters rather than Tories. The fishmongers in Tooting Market may have been replaced by craft beer pop-ups, but the psephological impact is somewhere close to neutral.

With a Labour majority of over 14,000 and two other seats needed to be won back in Wandsworth, Tooting’s days as a realistic Tory prospect appear to be over, whatever happens at a national level. Freedom - from Labour representation at least - seems destined to remain out of reach.

Can we have some official stats please?

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 8.5% 631/650
Owner-occupied 48.4% 587/650
Private rented 32.8% 15/650
Social rented 16.7% 301/650
White 65.9% 590/650
Black 12.0% 34/650
Asian 15.3% 70/650
Managerial & professional 48.1%
(Lower managerial, administrative and professional 29.6% 7/650)
Routine & Semi-routine 13.3%
Employed in real estate activities 2.4% 12/650
Employed in professional, scientific and technical activities 15.1% 15/650
Degree level 51.4% 10/650
No qualifications 12.2% 637/650
Students 9.7% 155/650


2021 Census

Owner occupied 47.6% 518/573
Private rented 36.1% 25/573
Social rented 16.3% 245/573
White 66.5%
Black 10.0%
Asian 14.0%
Managerial & professional 52.6% 4/573
Routine & Semi-routine 11.8% 567/573
Degree level 61.8% 5/573
No qualifications 10.4% 561/573

[spinach]

Earlsfield South - 1.1%

The MSOA with the highest % South Africa passport holders in England and Wales 2021.

[batman]

interesting, Roehampton & the West Hill ward of Putney have a greater reputation for that.

[spinach]

Dec 27, 2022 22:16:14 GMT batman said:

interesting, Roehampton & the West Hill ward of Putney have a greater reputation for that.

I presumed south west London would have the highest concentration of South Africans and the census 2021 shows that.

Other wards with high South African passport holders:
Putney Town and Wandsworth Park - 1.0%
Wimbledon Park and Durnsford Road - 1.0%
Wimbledon Broadway North - 1.0%
Raynes Park - 1.0%

[timrollpickering]

Apr 26, 2021 15:08:44 GMT sirbenjamin said:

In the 1970s the sitcom 'Citizen Smith' introduced Tooting to a wider audience as the home of revolutionary Marxism, while in reality the MP at the time was the less radical Tom Cox, a low-profile backbencher on the mid-left of the party who seldom appeared on television demanding freedom for the area, but quietly went about representing it for an impressive 35 years, often with quite small majorities (just 1,441 in 1987).

The Tooting Popular Front was anything but popular - that was the joke. The first series depicts a by-election in which Wolfie Smith gets just six votes whilst the Conservatives win with many thousands.

[sirbenjamin]

Dec 27, 2022 22:52:11 GMT timrollpickering said:

Apr 26, 2021 15:08:44 GMT sirbenjamin said:

In the 1970s the sitcom 'Citizen Smith' introduced Tooting to a wider audience as the home of revolutionary Marxism, while in reality the MP at the time was the less radical Tom Cox, a low-profile backbencher on the mid-left of the party who seldom appeared on television demanding freedom for the area, but quietly went about representing it for an impressive 35 years, often with quite small majorities (just 1,441 in 1987).

The Tooting Popular Front was anything but popular - that was the joke. The first series depicts a by-election in which Wolfie Smith gets just six votes whilst the Conservatives win with many thousands.

Yes, it was a slightly odd scenario as the seat had been a comfortable Labour hold in the 1974 elections and was never really a Tory target in those days. Had there been an actual by election in the 74-79 parliament it would likely have been a Labour hold, even with six votes splitting off to the TPF.

[timrollpickering]

The seat was "Tooting North" so it may have been a more viable target than the actual Tooting seat at the time. The actual result was:

PEN-MEREDITH, James (Labour) 21,314
CARTER, Eric (Liberal) 2,384
WEST, David (Conservative) 21,517
SMITH, Wolfie (Tooting Popular Front) 6

(Apologies if I've mistranscribed any of that. There don't appear to be any subtitles on the DVD despite what the box says.)

[sirbenjamin]

Dec 28, 2022 0:55:28 GMT timrollpickering said:

The seat was "Tooting North" so it may have been a more viable target than the actual Tooting seat at the time. The actual result was:

PEN-MEREDITH, James (Labour) 21,314
CARTER, Eric (Liberal) 2,384
WEST, David (Conservative) 21,517
SMITH, Wolfie (Tooting Popular Front) 6

(Apologies if I've mistranscribed any of that. There don't appear to be any subtitles on the DVD despite what the box says.)

Presumably any Tooting North seat would've included the Wandsworth Common area which would've been strongly Conservative, plus some marginal territory from the actual Battersea South. But possibly not Furzedown and Bedford wards which were key to taking control of the council in the 1978 locals. Given that London seats were typically wholly contained within LAs, the existence of Tooting North strongly implies a Tooting South and for that to be big enough it would probably need all of Tooting proper (unless it contained some residual parts of Wandsworth that were by then in Lambeth - e.g. a 'Tooting South and Streatham' seat or some such, but this would've been unlikely at this time.)

It would be interesting to see if plausible North and South seats could be created from the 1974-1983 electorate, and, if so, how they would've voted in those elections.

[Pete Whitehead]

Dec 28, 2022 1:53:22 GMT sirbenjamin said:

Dec 28, 2022 0:55:28 GMT timrollpickering said:

The seat was "Tooting North" so it may have been a more viable target than the actual Tooting seat at the time. The actual result was:

PEN-MEREDITH, James (Labour) 21,314
CARTER, Eric (Liberal) 2,384
WEST, David (Conservative) 21,517
SMITH, Wolfie (Tooting Popular Front) 6

(Apologies if I've mistranscribed any of that. There don't appear to be any subtitles on the DVD despite what the box says.)

Presumably any Tooting North seat would've included the Wandsworth Common area which would've been strongly Conservative, plus some marginal territory from the actual Battersea South. But possibly not Furzedown and Bedford wards which were key to taking control of the council in the 1978 locals. Given that London seats were typically wholly contained within LAs, the existence of Tooting North strongly implies a Tooting South and for that to be big enough it would probably need all of Tooting proper (unless it contained some residual parts of Wandsworth that were by then in Lambeth - e.g. a 'Tooting South and Streatham' seat or some such, but this would've been unlikely at this time.)

It would be interesting to see if plausible North and South seats could be created from the 1974-1983 electorate, and, if so, how they would've voted in those elections.

Its likely that a 'Tooting North' would have corresponded quite closely to the actual Battersea South of that era with Tooting South corresponding to Tooting. Wandsworth Common wasn't that strongly Conservative at that time (the old Springfield ward was won by Labour in 1974 and therefore Labour held at the time of the by-election). Nevertheless it would have been a marginal seat and should certainly have been gained by the Conservatives in a by-election in December 1977. The swing in Bournemouth East in November 1977 was 9% and at Ilford North in February 1978 8%, while a swing of only 5% would have been needed to gain Battersea South/Tooting North.

The problem here is the turnout level implied by the figures above which would be close to 100%. This means that for that to be realistic it would have to be a much larger seat extending down to Tooting Broadway, including say the Bedford ward and Tooting itself. That would leave only Graveney and Furzedown in Tooting South which would then presumably have to include Mitcham, but as you say the policy at that time was not to have any cross London borough constituencies.

[batman]

Dec 28, 2022 1:53:22 GMT sirbenjamin said:

Dec 28, 2022 0:55:28 GMT timrollpickering said:

The seat was "Tooting North" so it may have been a more viable target than the actual Tooting seat at the time. The actual result was:

PEN-MEREDITH, James (Labour) 21,314
CARTER, Eric (Liberal) 2,384
WEST, David (Conservative) 21,517
SMITH, Wolfie (Tooting Popular Front) 6

(Apologies if I've mistranscribed any of that. There don't appear to be any subtitles on the DVD despite what the box says.)

Presumably any Tooting North seat would've included the Wandsworth Common area which would've been strongly Conservative, plus some marginal territory from the actual Battersea South. But possibly not Furzedown and Bedford wards which were key to taking control of the council in the 1978 locals. Given that London seats were typically wholly contained within LAs, the existence of Tooting North strongly implies a Tooting South and for that to be big enough it would probably need all of Tooting proper (unless it contained some residual parts of Wandsworth that were by then in Lambeth - e.g. a 'Tooting South and Streatham' seat or some such, but this would've been unlikely at this time.)

It would be interesting to see if plausible North and South seats could be created from the 1974-1983 electorate, and, if so, how they would've voted in those elections.

Some artistic licence is usually given to comedy. Even more so in Monty Python where in the election won by the Silly Party there are constituencies called Leicester, Luton, and Harpenden South-East.

[Deleted]

Dec 3, 2022 16:07:30 GMT Robert Waller said:

2011 Census

Age 65+ 8.5% 631/650
Owner-occupied 48.4% 587/650
Private rented 32.8% 15/650
Social rented 16.7% 301/650
White 65.9% 590/650
Black 12.0% 34/650
Asian 15.3% 70/650
Managerial & professional 48.1%
(Lower managerial, administrative and professional 29.6% 7/650)
Routine & Semi-routine 13.3%
Employed in real estate activities 2.4% 12/650
Employed in professional, scientific and technical activities 15.1% 15/650
Degree level 51.4% 10/650
No qualifications 12.2% 637/650
Students 9.7% 155/650


2021 Census

White 66.5%
Black 10.0%
Asian 14.0%

So the White percentage increased very marginally, whilst both the Black and Asian shares decreased. An indication of gentrification?

[batman]

There is some visible gentrification in parts of Tooting itself but it's a slow process

[rockefeller]

Dec 28, 2022 9:43:36 GMT batman said:

There is some visible gentrification in parts of Tooting itself but it's a slow process

I get the sense this seat has become more polarised due to proximity to both Battersea and Mitcham & Morden.

[batman]

Yes, it's a constituency where it could be argued that different parts are trending in slightly different directions, along with some others in London. Even some neighbouring wards.

[heslingtonian]

Politically, the weird thing about urban gentrification now is whereas until a few years ago it would definitely have helped the Conservatives and hindered Labour, now the opposite is probably true. It remains to be seen whether this is a short term phenomenon.

[batman]

I don't think that in a constituency like Tooting non-gentrification is in any sense harmful to Labour. However it is the case that in London the sharpest swings away from the Tories have been amongst better-off voters

[The Bishop]

The "fictional" election that has always annoyed me (maybe a bit unreasonably) is the Tories winning a previously safe Labour seat in Tyneside at the 1979 GE as a major plot device in Our Friends In The North. Of course, nothing remotely like that actually happened IRL.

[sirbenjamin]

Dec 28, 2022 5:20:23 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Dec 28, 2022 1:53:22 GMT sirbenjamin said:

Presumably any Tooting North seat would've included the Wandsworth Common area which would've been strongly Conservative, plus some marginal territory from the actual Battersea South. But possibly not Furzedown and Bedford wards which were key to taking control of the council in the 1978 locals. Given that London seats were typically wholly contained within LAs, the existence of Tooting North strongly implies a Tooting South and for that to be big enough it would probably need all of Tooting proper (unless it contained some residual parts of Wandsworth that were by then in Lambeth - e.g. a 'Tooting South and Streatham' seat or some such, but this would've been unlikely at this time.)

It would be interesting to see if plausible North and South seats could be created from the 1974-1983 electorate, and, if so, how they would've voted in those elections.

Its likely that a 'Tooting North' would have corresponded quite closely to the actual Battersea South of that era with Tooting South corresponding to Tooting. Wandsworth Common wasn't that strongly Conservative at that time (the old Springfield ward was won by Labour in 1974 and therefore Labour held at the time of the by-election). Nevertheless it would have been a marginal seat and should certainly have been gained by the Conservatives in a by-election in December 1977. The swing in Bournemouth East in November 1977 was 9% and at Ilford North in February 1978 8%, while a swing of only 5% would have been needed to gain Battersea South/Tooting North.

The problem here is the turnout level implied by the figures above which would be close to 100%. This means that for that to be realistic it would have to be a much larger seat extending down to Tooting Broadway, including say the Bedford ward and Tooting itself. That would leave only Graveney and Furzedown in Tooting South which would then presumably have to include Mitcham, but as you say the policy at that time was not to have any cross London borough constituencies.

The turnout is ridiculous for a by election - it would have to have an absolutely massive electorate, but of course for their to exist realistic North and South seats they would need to be small, like when Paddington somehow boasted two seats, so it's a paradox that is hard to reconcile.

And while I haven't seen the episode for many years, I don't remember any implication that it was anywhere other than Wolfie's home turf, so the idea that it didn't include 'Tooting proper' and was a badly-named legacy seat like Ilford North doesn't really work either.

I suppose it's possible the Tooting seats were unevenly apportioned, something like this. But it's still largely nonsensical.

[sirbenjamin]

Incidentally I've now had my Christmas Dinner in this seat two years running. In two different wards.