Post by John Chanin on Apr 16, 2021 10:25:34 GMT
Stafford is an old town as might be guessed from the fact that it has a county named after it. It has an early Norman castle perched on a hill to the west of the modern town (motte and bailey), and indeed a Mercian prehistory . It has a population of 70,000, and geographically it sits at the junction of the rivers Sow and Penk, just a few miles to the west of the Trent. More recently it developed as an industrial town, helped by its position as a railway junction, and is distinctly better off than the Staffordshire towns to the south. It is also noticeably more middle-class with managerial workers exceeding routine workers in the town as a whole, and much higher educational qualifications. As the location of Staffordshire county council (as well as Stafford District Council) there are a lot of public sector workers in the town which affects its politics. However there is no university here, perhaps surprisingly. Like many towns it is socially divided. To the south-east between the rivers there are extensive modern housing estates, all private, in Baswich, Wildwood, and Weeping Cross. Development continues on the outskirts of town on all sides. In the north of the town there are council estates, with the usual right to buy, interspersed with modest private housing. The small ethnic minority population is concentrated here, in Coton and Littleworth wards. But the big concentration of council housing, and decidedly more working class, is the south west of the town, with large estates in the Highfields and Moss Pit areas. The town centre is older, with pre-war and Victorian housing, and high levels of private renting. Lastly there are the quaint early Victorian cottages of Castletown, alongside the Doxey marshes (a nature reserve) on the north-west outskirts.
Politically the town leans towards Labour. 6 of the 11 wards are normally Labour held - the 3 in the north east of the town, and the 3 in the south-west. The city centre ward of Forebrook is politically competitive, with Greens, Liberal Democrats and Independents, but has little Conservative vote. The Conservatives have only 3 safe wards - the two in the south-east , and Rowley, which is up market private housing to the west of the city centre. Only Holmcroft and Castletown in the north-west are really marginal.
However the town only accounts for two-thirds of the seat. The other third is divided into two roughly equal parts. Firstly there are the immediate rural surroundings of the town, stretching down the Trent valley to Rugeley. The village of Haywood is where the Trent & Mersey canal meets the Staffordshire & Worcestershire canal. Like most such areas these are solidly Conservative. Secondly the seat stretches southward into South Staffordshire District to include the small town of Penkridge. This resembles the rest of the District in being an almost wholly modern commuter village. There is also some pleasant rural countryside on the Shropshire border to the west of the town, around the village of Wheaton Aston. This section of the seat is very Conservative and swings the seat to the Conservatives in an average year.
Like many similar seats Stafford was gained by Labour in the 1997 landslide (famously the defeated Conservative candidate was one David Cameron). Labour did well to hold it in 2005, but was comfortably defeated in 2010. The MP who won it from Labour stood down before the 2019 election, and the new MP is Theodora Clarke, an aristocrat from Gloucestershire and an art historian.
The Boundary Commission has had considerable difficulty in reorganizing Staffordshire into sensible seats that fall within the required limits. While this seat remains securely based on the town itself, there are changes to the area outside the town. Out go 12,000 voters to the south, from the town of Penkridge and its neighbouring rural area, which are in South Staffordshire District. And out go another 10,000 voters from the Sow and Trent valleys to the east of the town. In exchange Stafford gains an expansive rural area to the north-west of the town along the Shropshire border, including the small town of Eccleshall, and extending right up into Newcastle District, with the delightfully named village of Loggerheads. This amounts to 19,000 voters, who were all formerly in the Stone constituency. All of these areas vote Conservative, but with slightly less of them there may be a small boost to Labour prospects.
Census data: owner-occupied 70% (222/573 in England & Wales), private rented 14% (331st), social rented 15% (286th).
:White 94%, Black 1%, South Asian 2%, Mixed 1%, Other 2%
: Managerial & professional 39% (185th), Routine & Semi-routine 28% (336th)
: Degree level 28%(204th), Minimal qualifications 34%(368th)
: Students 6% (143rd), Over 65: 18% (201st)
Politically the town leans towards Labour. 6 of the 11 wards are normally Labour held - the 3 in the north east of the town, and the 3 in the south-west. The city centre ward of Forebrook is politically competitive, with Greens, Liberal Democrats and Independents, but has little Conservative vote. The Conservatives have only 3 safe wards - the two in the south-east , and Rowley, which is up market private housing to the west of the city centre. Only Holmcroft and Castletown in the north-west are really marginal.
However the town only accounts for two-thirds of the seat. The other third is divided into two roughly equal parts. Firstly there are the immediate rural surroundings of the town, stretching down the Trent valley to Rugeley. The village of Haywood is where the Trent & Mersey canal meets the Staffordshire & Worcestershire canal. Like most such areas these are solidly Conservative. Secondly the seat stretches southward into South Staffordshire District to include the small town of Penkridge. This resembles the rest of the District in being an almost wholly modern commuter village. There is also some pleasant rural countryside on the Shropshire border to the west of the town, around the village of Wheaton Aston. This section of the seat is very Conservative and swings the seat to the Conservatives in an average year.
Like many similar seats Stafford was gained by Labour in the 1997 landslide (famously the defeated Conservative candidate was one David Cameron). Labour did well to hold it in 2005, but was comfortably defeated in 2010. The MP who won it from Labour stood down before the 2019 election, and the new MP is Theodora Clarke, an aristocrat from Gloucestershire and an art historian.
The Boundary Commission has had considerable difficulty in reorganizing Staffordshire into sensible seats that fall within the required limits. While this seat remains securely based on the town itself, there are changes to the area outside the town. Out go 12,000 voters to the south, from the town of Penkridge and its neighbouring rural area, which are in South Staffordshire District. And out go another 10,000 voters from the Sow and Trent valleys to the east of the town. In exchange Stafford gains an expansive rural area to the north-west of the town along the Shropshire border, including the small town of Eccleshall, and extending right up into Newcastle District, with the delightfully named village of Loggerheads. This amounts to 19,000 voters, who were all formerly in the Stone constituency. All of these areas vote Conservative, but with slightly less of them there may be a small boost to Labour prospects.
Census data: owner-occupied 70% (222/573 in England & Wales), private rented 14% (331st), social rented 15% (286th).
:White 94%, Black 1%, South Asian 2%, Mixed 1%, Other 2%
: Managerial & professional 39% (185th), Routine & Semi-routine 28% (336th)
: Degree level 28%(204th), Minimal qualifications 34%(368th)
: Students 6% (143rd), Over 65: 18% (201st)
2010 | % | 2015 | % | 2017 | % | 2019 | % | |
Conservative | 22,047 | 43.9% | 23,606 | 48.4% | 28,424 | 54.7% | 29,992 | 58.6% |
Labour | 16,587 | 33.0% | 14,429 | 29.6% | 20,695 | 39.9% | 15,615 | 30.5% |
Liberal Democrat | 8,211 | 16.3% | 1,348 | 2.8% | 1,540 | 3.0% | 3,175 | 6.2% |
UKIP | 1,727 | 3.4% | 6,293 | 12.9% | ||||
Green | 564 | 1.1% | 1,390 | 2.9% | 1,265 | 2.4% | 2,367 | 4.6% |
Others | 1,103 | 2.2% | 1,701 | 3.5% | ||||
Majority | 5,460 | 10.9% | 9,177 | 18.8% | 7,729 | 14.9% | 14,377 | 28.1% |
