Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 16, 2021 14:48:28 GMT
The big UKIP vote in 2015 split about equally between Labour and Conservative in 2017, and similarly the big Brexit Party vote in 2019 came mainly from Labour. So it's not a big pile of Conservative splitter votes conveniently waiting to go back into the Conservative pile (as simplistic simpletons might assume). So the Labour Party will hold the seat with a small but comfortable majority, and there will probably be an entertaining ensemble of assorted populist Walter Mitty candidates, each of which will assume that he/she will inherit the Brexit vote en masse. Brexit Reforn Reclaim UKIP BNP LWP whatever. (LWP = Local Weirdo Party) Or even the return of the Monster Raving Loony Party! Looking at the activities of the local council, there shouldn't be a shortage of possibilities. |
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Post by La Fontaine on Mar 16, 2021 14:52:07 GMT
Not compared with his predecessor Ted Leadbitter, who was a good constituency MP. But well known as being a sandwich short of a picnic. He was quite convinced that nearly everybody was a spy He didn't bother with an election address - just put a "vote for me" advert in the Mail. His agent was the redoubtable Elsie Reed. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 16, 2021 14:58:00 GMT
Tories 1/2 on, Labour 13/8. That feels the wrong way round to me; no Tory history here, few Councillors, historically weak. Unless the bookies know that Laura Pidcock will be the Labour candidate in which case the Tory price is generous... I made a good profit (not a large sum, but in terms of % return) betting on Labour here in 2017. The odds were ridiculous here then on Labour holding (as in a number of other historically safe Labour seats). Can't remember if the bookies did the same in 2019 but there's always good money to be made from them on elections - I got 6/1 on Labour in the Peterborough by-election |
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 16, 2021 14:58:38 GMT
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zoe
Conservative
Posts: 637
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Post by zoe on Mar 16, 2021 15:01:26 GMT
H'Angus the Monkey anyone?
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 16, 2021 15:03:28 GMT
Who will be the first to refer to Hartlepool as a coal mining town? Hartlepool is a coal mining town. Mornington Crescent! In fairness, you don't have to travel far over the boundary to reach the east Durham coalfield where there definitely *were* mines (my grandfather worked at Murton colliery, albeit as a brickie rather than a face worker), but Hartlepool was concerned with the onward shipment of coal rather than its extraction. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 16, 2021 15:04:17 GMT
H'Angus the Monkey anyone? I believe Stuart Drummond is now retired from politics. |
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Post by oldhamexile on Mar 16, 2021 15:05:15 GMT
Not compared with his predecessor Ted Leadbitter, who was a good constituency MP. But well known as being a sandwich short of a picnic. He was quite convinced that nearly everybody was a spy In fact Leadbitter's famous question in November 1979 was planted by Downing Street. Andrew Boyle's book The Climate of Treason had referred to Blunt under the pseudonym 'Maurice', and Private Eye had made pretty clear that 'Maurice' was Blunt. So Downing Street looked for an early opportunity to out him officially, and Leadbitter was the type of old-fashioned Labour MP who was keen to do his patriotic duty. Part of his interest in these issues came from having had the next door constituency to Manny Shinwell, whose old PPS George Wigg became the self-appointed parliamentary expert on security matters. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2021 15:12:05 GMT
Tories 1/2 on, Labour 13/8. That feels the wrong way round to me; no Tory history here, few Councillors, historically weak. Unless the bookies know that Laura Pidcock will be the Labour candidate in which case the Tory price is generous... Being pedantic (as I know people here love to be), there was a history of Tory representation under it's previous incarnation as 'The Hartlepools' - but not since 1964. |
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 16, 2021 15:16:46 GMT
I should confess to a personal connection here - my dad was SDP/Liberal Alliance candidate here in GE 1983, finishing 3rd but with 14% of the vote, meaning he kept his deposit in the days when you needed 12.5% to do that. He'd gone to the trouble of preparing a speech for after the declaration (not a victory speech), but Leadbitter, who won, declined to speak so nobody else got to either.
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979 
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Post by sirbenjamin on Mar 16, 2021 15:46:42 GMT
I'll be piling on the 13/8.
What a shame I'm the poorest I've been for 20 years.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 16, 2021 15:51:20 GMT
I'll be piling on the 13/8. What a shame I'm the poorest I've been for 20 years. Unfortunately for me, virtually my entire Ladbrokes account is tied up backing Khan to win London. If only the by-election was later. |
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on Mar 16, 2021 16:02:26 GMT
I'll be piling on the 13/8. What a shame I'm the poorest I've been for 20 years. Unfortunately for me, virtually my entire Ladbrokes account is tied up backing Khan to win London. If only the by-election was later.
Is it only Ladbrokes offering the 13/8? Certainly Betfair isn't anywhere near that at the moment.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 16, 2021 16:03:30 GMT
Already down to 11/10 on Ladbrokes. I'd be more tempted by a small bet on Reform with those odds
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 16, 2021 16:12:18 GMT
Not sure I'd go as far as invoking Father Christmas.  |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Mar 16, 2021 16:24:30 GMT
Ed Balls is another name that gets speculated about in every post-2015 by-election.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 16, 2021 16:27:44 GMT
It's a shame we no longer have Andrew Neil's four hour by election specials. JFTFY You youngsters didn't see the masters (Hanna/Rawnsley) in action. Neil is a Hartlepool FC to their Barcelona. As an aside we largely have John Major to blame/thank for the steady fall in the number of by-elections. In 1992 he introduced a more generous (many would say over-generous) pension scheme for MPs. Prior to then, MPs would literally work until they dropped because they couldn't afford to retire - there was even an MPs' hardship fund for retired MPs who found themselves in straitened circumstances. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 16, 2021 16:27:51 GMT
Already down to 11/10 on Ladbrokes. I'd be more tempted by a small bet on Reform with those odds 33/1. Very tempted to put £5 on it. |
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Mar 16, 2021 16:42:00 GMT
Ed Balls is another name that gets speculated about in every post-2015 by-election. We laughed at him back then, but he is a giant compared to the current Labour front-bench. Could do a lot worse. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 16, 2021 16:43:25 GMT
Ed Balls is another name that gets speculated about in every post-2015 by-election. We laughed at him back then, but he is a giant compared to the current Labour front-bench. Could do a lot worse. Before 2015 I ridiculed Ed Balls. If only I knew... |
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