Local Council by-elections 8th April 2021

[Tony Otim]

The last lot prior to 6th May and the first outing for a new political party this week.

TORFAEN UA; Abersychan & Cwmavon (Ind died)
Candidates:
CLARKSON, Lynda (Labour)
GETHING, Kieran James Glyn (Propel)
GRIFFIN, Tristan Vaughan (Conservative)
HILL, Charlotte Louise (Independent)
TOMLINSON, John Wayne (Independent)

2017: Ind 1242, 906; Lab 1000, 706, 504; Con 338
2012: Lab 845,679,623; Ind 570, 244, 238, 199, 175, 157; PC 252; Grn 178
2008: Ind 1148, 810, 734; Lab 862, 725, 465; Grn 446
2004: Lab 1062, 970, 614; Ind 773, 661, 568, 398; Grn 265

Wayne Tomlinson was the third placed indy in 2004, elected as an indy in 2008, then held as the second placed Labour candidate in 2012 and was defeated as the second placed Labour candidate in 2017. The deceased councillor (Raymond Williams) was the indy elected in 2004, topped the poll in 2008, came 4th in 2012 and won his seat back in 3rd in 2017.



TORFAEN UA: Cwmyniscoy (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
EVANS, Ben (Propel)
HARRIS, Bridgette (Independent)
KILLICK, John (Labour)

2017: Lab 192; UKIP 150
2012: Lab 274; Ind 225; PC 10; Con 9
2008: People’s Voice 232; Lab 213
2004: Lab unopp



TORFAEN UA; New Inn (Con resigned)
Candidates:
ATTFIELD, Ross Martin (Independent)
DASTGIR, Farooq (Labour)
JAMES, Keith (Conservative)

2017: Con 1171, 1067, 1013; Lab 655, 594, 576; Ind 314
2012: Con 1086, 1061, 1050; Lab 739, 724, 671; PC 219
2008: Con 977, 913, 813; Ind 805; Lab 667, 630, 570; People’s Voice 609
2004: Lab 934, 933, 916; UKIP 811; Con 711; LD 368

Farooq Dastgir was the 3rd Labour candidate in 2017.


Current Council: Lab 26; Ind 6; Individual Independents 6; Con 3; 3 vacancies

[markgoodair]

What is Propel?

[The Bishop]

Neil McEvoy's personal cult grouping.

[minionofmidas]

Mar 15, 2021 12:01:44 GMT The Bishop said:

Neil McEvoy's personal cult grouping.

amusing character. Great reading on wikipedia, thanks for that.
And no stances not to like in the stubbier party article! (though the personal article raises red flags so don't sign me up.)

[johng]

A surprisingly quiet thread for what could be three interesting by-elections. By-elections are not normal elections, but I think a mix of the three should give some indication of the relative strength of Labour and the Conservatives in South Wales.

Abersychan looks like the most interesting race with it likely being close between Tomlinson and Labour.

New Inn and Cwmynyscoy (hopefully) are very likely holds.

I'm also a bit interested to see how Propel do and how much ground work their candidates have put in. I'm no expert on Propel, but McEvoy on Twitter seems to be concentrating his campaign on the confines of the Cardiff West constituency.

[timmullen1]

The last edition of Andrew’s Previews prior to 6th May:

www.britainelects.com/2021/04/08/previewing-the-torfaen-by-elections-of-08-apr-2021/

[yellowperil]

Does anyone know what the countimg arrangements are for Torfaen? If they are counting all three tonight and consecutively it could be a long night!

[timmullen1]

Apr 8, 2021 21:44:42 GMT yellowperil said:

Does anyone know what the countimg arrangements are for Torfaen? If they are counting all three tonight and consecutively it could be a long night!

There’s zero action on Twitter, nothing from either the council or the candidates, so I’m tempted to think they’re counting tomorrow and go to bed.

[andykernow]

Abersychan - Lab gain from Ind

Clarkson Lab - 503 - 49.75%
Hill Ind - 176 - 17.41%
Tomlinson Ind - 175 - 17.31%
Griffin Con - 138 - 13.65%
Gething - Propel 19 - 1.88%

Lab Majority - 327 - Turnout 20.82%

[andykernow]

Cymyniscoy - Lab Hold

Kellick Lab 155 - 77.11%
Harris Ind - 30 - 14.92%
Evans Propel - 16 - 7.97%

Lab Majority - 125 - Turnout 20.42%

[andykernow]

New Inn - Con Hold

Keith Con - 641 - 53.82%
Dastgir Lab - 344 - 28.88%
Attfield Ind - 206 - 17.30%

Con Maj - 344 - Turnout 25.27%

[johng]

Swings are all fairly meaningless due to independents and changes in candidates from last time, but not a bad set of results for Labour here. +11 in Abersychan, +21 in Cwmynyscoy, and -1.7 in New Inn.

This confirms with some certainty that McEvoy won't be elected on the SWC list (I know this is SWE).