Local Council By-election 1st April 2021

[Tony Otim]

Just the one this week:

MONMOUTHSHIRE UA; St Kingsmark (Con died))
Candidates:
BREWS, Jenni (Liberal Democrat)
EDWARDS, Christopher Glyn (Conservative)
KIRTON, Tom Peter (Labour)

2017: Con 456; Ind 94; Lab 94; LD 62
2012: Con 422; LD 257
2008: Con 474; LD 270; Lab 110
2004: Con 422; LD 385; Lab 87

Current Council: Con 24; Lab 9; Ind Grp 5; LD 3; Ind 1; 1 vacancy

[Chris from Brum]

Mar 6, 2021 16:11:40 GMT Tony Otim said:

Just the one this week:

MONMOUTHSHIRE UA; St Kingsmark (Con died))
Candidates:
BREWS, Jenni (Liberal Democrat)
EDWARDS, Christopher Glyn (Conservative)
KIRTON, Tom Peter (Labour)

2017: Con 456; Ind 94; Lab 94; LD 62
2012: Con 422; LD 257
2008: Con 474; LD 270; Lab 110
2004: Con 422; LD 385; Lab 87

Current Council: Con 24; Lab 9; Ind Grp 5; LD 3; Ind 1; 1 vacancy

Telling that there's no Plaid (or any other nationalist) candidate here.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Mar 6, 2021 16:36:54 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Telling that there's no Plaid (or any other nationalist) candidate here.

Not particularly. It's Monmouthshire. There were only three Plaid Cymru candidates in the whole council in 2017.

[Chris from Brum]

Mar 6, 2021 17:03:05 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Mar 6, 2021 16:36:54 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Telling that there's no Plaid (or any other nationalist) candidate here.

Not particularly. It's Monmouthshire. There were only three Plaid Cymru candidates in the whole council in 2017.

I was aware that it's not a hotbed of nationalism.  But PC like to say that they're a National party, and presumably try to stand everywhere if they can.

[finsobruce]

Mar 6, 2021 17:10:57 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Mar 6, 2021 17:03:05 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Not particularly. It's Monmouthshire. There were only three Plaid Cymru candidates in the whole council in 2017.

I was aware that it's not a hotbed of nationalism.  But PC like to say that they're a National party, and presumably try to stand everywhere if they can.

Plaid have only stood in the parliamentary constituency from 1970 with their highest percentage of the vote being the 3.9% they managed in 2015. In 2019 they were overtaken by the Greens, who have only been standing in their own right since 2010. The 1991 by election and 1992 General election saw a sort of joint candidacy.

[timmullen1]

Andrew’s Preview for the week: www.britainelects.com/2021/04/01/previewing-the-st-kingsmark-monmouthshire-by-election-01-apr-2021/

[timmullen1]

Just noticed a Tweet from the Conservative Deputy Leader of Monmouthshire CC and it seems we have incorrect figures for 2017. According to their website (and I had to override my security settings as its license has expired) the figures were:

democracy.monmouthshire.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=242&RPID=8708363

[timmullen1]

[timmullen1]

www.monmouthshire.gov.uk/app/uploads/2021/04/Declaration-of-Result-St-Kingsmark-County-Election.pdf

[middleenglander]

Conservative 439 - 55.7%
Liberal Democrat 230 - 29.2%
Labour 119 - 15.1%

[andrewteale]

Apr 1, 2021 22:08:23 GMT timmullen1 said:

Just noticed a Tweet from the Conservative Deputy Leader of Monmouthshire CC and it seems we have incorrect figures for 2017. According to their website (and I had to override my security settings as its license has expired) the figures were:

democracy.monmouthshire.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=242&RPID=8708363

I would like to apologise for that error.

[timmullen1]

Apr 1, 2021 23:04:05 GMT andrewteale said:

Apr 1, 2021 22:08:23 GMT timmullen1 said:

Just noticed a Tweet from the Conservative Deputy Leader of Monmouthshire CC and it seems we have incorrect figures for 2017. According to their website (and I had to override my security settings as its license has expired) the figures were:

democracy.monmouthshire.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=242&RPID=8708363

I would like to apologise for that error.

Given the volume of your output I think the fact such errors are so rare is testament to the quality of your research, and inevitable under the law of averages.

[Harry Hayfield]

Apr 1, 2021 22:21:17 GMT middleenglander said:

Conservative 439 - 55.7%
Liberal Democrat 230 - 29.2%
Labour 119 - 15.1%

Change on 2017 (with amended figures)
Conservatives +11%
Labour +6%
Liberal Democrats +23%
Independent (did not field candidate, -40%)
Actual swing: 6% from Con to Lib Dem
Notional swing: 25.5% from Ind to Con

[middleenglander]

Apr 2, 2021 6:50:06 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Apr 1, 2021 22:21:17 GMT middleenglander said:

Conservative 439 - 55.7%
Liberal Democrat 230 - 29.2%
Labour 119 - 15.1%

Change on 2017 (with amended figures)
Conservatives +11%
Labour +6%
Liberal Democrats +23%
Independent (did not field candidate, -40%)
Actual swing: 6% from Con to Lib Dem
Notional swing: 25.5% from Ind to Con

My posting on the Welsh by-election results thread suggests that a swing calculation is not meaningful, certainly compared to 2017. There was a small mathematical 1% Liberal Democrat to Conservative swing since 2012 and 2008 but this is not statistically meaningful; there has also been a 12% increase in the electorate since 2008.

The Conservatives also won the Community Council by-election yesterday 465 (60.4%) to 305 (39.6%) for a Liberal Democrat - 1 Conservative, 1 Labour, 1 Independent were returned unopposed in 2017. The Independent was the Independent Group candidate in the 2017 County election who came second.