timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
|
Post by timmullen1 on Mar 26, 2021 13:15:07 GMT
LD excluded, looks tough for the SNP not to retain from here.
|
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,984
|
Post by maxque on Mar 26, 2021 13:43:33 GMT
Stage 2:
SNP 1547 (+9)
Con 1326 (+47)
Lab 1114 (+44)
Grn 332 (+50)
|
|
|
|
Post by dizz on Mar 26, 2021 13:48:00 GMT
LD excluded, looks tough for the SNP not to retain from here. Yes, Lab too far behind Con to overtake & Con too far behind SNP to catch up on loyal transfers. :-( |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,984
|
Post by maxque on Mar 26, 2021 14:17:45 GMT
Stage 3:
SNP 1662 (+115)
Con 1364 (+38)
Lab 1222 (+108)
|
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,167
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Mar 26, 2021 14:53:51 GMT
Stage 3: SNP 1662 (+115) Con 1364 (+38) Lab 1222 (+108) Interesting - less than half the Green vote that transferred went to SNP, and almost as much went to Labour. |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,285
Member is Online
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 26, 2021 14:55:12 GMT
Stage 3: SNP 1662 (+115) Con 1364 (+38) Lab 1222 (+108) Interesting - less than half the Green vote that transferred went to SNP, and almost as much went to Labour. I really don't find that that surprising, especially not in Lothian  |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,984
|
Post by maxque on Mar 26, 2021 15:05:20 GMT
Stage 4:
SNP 1963 (+301)
Con 1656 (+292)
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,285
Member is Online
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 26, 2021 15:10:49 GMT
And the Labour vote transferred more to the SNP than to the Tories. There are limits to the amount the constitutional question determines everything...
|
|
|
|
Post by dizz on Mar 26, 2021 15:25:17 GMT
And the Labour vote transferred more to the SNP than to the Tories. There are limits to the amount the constitutional question determines everything... But just imagine how different that final transfer profile would have been in 2007... |
|
|
|
Post by afleitch on Mar 26, 2021 16:27:43 GMT
Here's the average change in share since 2017 in the 11 recent by-elections in Scotland.
Con +1.5
Lab +0.8
LD -0.1
SNP +3.8
Grn +3.8
|
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Mar 26, 2021 17:15:30 GMT
Here's the average change in share since 2017 in the 11 recent by-elections in Scotland. Con +1.5 Lab +0.8 LD -0.1 SNP +3.8 Grn +3.8 Who are all those increased voteshares coming from? |
|
|
|
Post by jollyroger93 on Mar 26, 2021 17:22:01 GMT
Here's the average change in share since 2017 in the 11 recent by-elections in Scotland. Con +1.5 Lab +0.8 LD -0.1 SNP +3.8 Grn +3.8 Who are all those increased voteshares coming from? Mostly independents. |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,285
Member is Online
|
Post by Tony Otim on Mar 26, 2021 17:31:57 GMT
Here's the average change in share since 2017 in the 11 recent by-elections in Scotland. Con +1.5 Lab +0.8 LD -0.1 SNP +3.8 Grn +3.8 Would the Green figure be less if you counted us as -5.2% in Almond and Earn for not bothering to put up a candidate? If you get counted as + whatever for putting up a candidate where you didn't before, then the reverse is only fair. |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Mar 27, 2021 10:24:41 GMT
Here's the average change in share since 2017 in the 11 recent by-elections in Scotland. Con +1.5 Lab +0.8 LD -0.1 SNP +3.8 Grn +3.8 Looked at differently, the changes in total share across the 11 by-elections since 2017 is given by: | Party | contested
2021 | contested
2017 | 2021 share | 2017 share | Difference | | SNP | 11 | 11 | 35.1% | 32.1% | +3.0% | | Conservative | 11 | 11 | 25.9% | 24.2% | +1.9% | | Labour | 11 | 7 | 20.2% | 20.8% | -0.5% | | Green | 9 | 7 | 6.2% | 5.0% | +1.2% | | Liberal Democrat | 8 | 7 | 5.2% | 5.0% | +0.2% | | UKIP | 5 | 0 | 0.3% | - | +0.3% | | Independent * | 5 | 7 | 6.9% | 11.9% | -5.0% | | Other ** | 1 | 2 | 0.1% | 1.1% | -1.0% |
* There were 7 Independent contesting 5 seats in 2021 against 13 candidates in 7 seats in 2017 ** In 2017 there were 3 Other candidates contesting 2 seats |
|
