Liverpool Broadgreen by-election, 1991

[Deleted]

In July 1991 Militant supporting Labour MP Terry Fields was given a two month prison sentence for refusal to pay his Community Charge.

In this scenario he decides to protest the party leaderships decision not to endorse a non payment campaign by resigning his seat and contesting the by-election from his prison cell. I’m assuming the party leadership would not have allowed him to do this as an official Labour candidate, but how do we think he would have done as an independent candidate under these circumstances?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

May 1991 totals in the constituency:

L Dem 50.2%
Lab 30.4%
C 9.9%
Oths 7%
GP 2.6%

And in the light of what happened in much less favourable territory in Liverpool Walton at the same time, I'd say Lib Dem gain with Fields hovering at deposit-saving level.

[greenhert]

Feb 27, 2021 23:38:09 GMT @jimbo said:

In July 1991 Militant supporting Labour MP Terry Fields was given a two month prison sentence for refusal to pay his Community Charge.

In this scenario he decides to protest the party leaderships decision not to endorse a non payment campaign by resigning his seat and contesting the by-election from his prison cell. I’m assuming the party leadership would not have allowed him to do this as an official Labour candidate, but how do we think he would have done as an independent candidate under these circumstances?

He would have failed badly, given how poorly Militant Labour's Lesley Mahmood polled in the real life Liverpool Walton by-election of 1991 and that voters would have seen through the publicity stunt.

[Pete Whitehead]

He got 14% in 1992 as an Independent so that is probably a better guide to how he might have done than how a different candidate did in a different constituency. The Lib Dem candidate in 1992 was Rosie Cooper (who was also at the time a councillor for Broadgreen ward) so there's a decent chance she would have been the candidate in a by-election held in 1991 (and with experience of a previous by-election in Knowsley North).
She'd have had to defect to Labour earlier than she did in order to sustain a parliamentary career - it's possible that the Lib Dems, having won the by-election, would have held on in 1992 but seems to me extremely unlikely given the swing that occurred across the city at that election.

[Deleted]

Feb 27, 2021 23:55:39 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

May 1991 totals in the constituency:

L Dem 50.2%
Lab 30.4%
C 9.9%
Oths 7%
GP 2.6%

And in the light of what happened in much less favourable territory in Liverpool Walton at the same time, I'd say Lib Dem gain with Fields hovering at deposit-saving level.

I’d actually forgot about how strong the Lib Dem’s were in this part of Liverpool at the time. I imagine they would have found it hard to hold on to the seat in 1992 when it would have reverted to type.