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Post by borderscot on Mar 12, 2021 15:05:11 GMT
Conservative - 1380 (39.9%, +8.0) SNP - 1042 (30.2%, +12.4) Liberal Democrat - 538 (15.6%, +6.2) Ind (Douglas) - 159 (4.6%, +4.6) Scottish Green - 152 (4.4%, +4.4) Labour - 115 (3.3%, +3.3) Ind (Wilks) - 69 (2%, +2) Three Independents last time representing -40.9%, hence why everyone is up. Surely with only one seat up for grabs, Melrose is traditionally a Conservative area? |
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 12, 2021 15:06:55 GMT
With more than 80% of the votes counted in Airds & Loch Ness it looks like SNP ahead, Independent close behind and Conservative not far adrift. These three are will ahead of the remaining three candidates
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Post by jollyroger93 on Mar 12, 2021 15:07:25 GMT
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 12, 2021 15:10:50 GMT
With more than 80% of the votes counted in Airds & Loch Ness it looks like SNP ahead, Independent close behind and Conservative not far adrift. These three are will ahead of the remaining three candidates I would guess the indy will have it in the bag on transfers then. |
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Post by borderscot on Mar 12, 2021 15:15:04 GMT
Melrose is reasonably strong for the Tories but by no means one of the strongest areas in the Borders. It's also relatively small and the biggest population centre in the ward is Tweedbank (although it doesn't get a name check in the ward name!) which I'd have thought is one of, if not, the, least Tory area in the Borders. I'd guess that the Tories get most of their vote from Lauder and the surrounding area.
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 12, 2021 15:40:16 GMT
Independent win in Airds & Loch Ness
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Post by phil156 on Mar 12, 2021 16:54:13 GMT
Long time with the figures in Highland has the monster eat them
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Sandy
Forum Regular
Posts: 3,206 
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Post by Sandy on Mar 12, 2021 16:58:57 GMT
Long time with the figures in Highland has the monster eat them First Preferences are on Highland Council’s Twitter page. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 12, 2021 17:05:01 GMT
Long time with the figures in Highland has the monster eat them |
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Post by afleitch on Mar 12, 2021 18:16:57 GMT
Not a bad wee set of results.
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 12, 2021 19:59:25 GMT
AIRD AND LOCH NESS
First preferences: Fraser 997 SNP 994 C 824 LD 300 Grn 272 Lab 133
Top 3: Fraser and SNP both on 119x (I am seeking confirmation of the exact figures) C 929
Final: Fraser 1663 SNP 1211
If those votes had been cast in a 4-seat ordinary election then Fraser, the SNP and the Conservatives would have won one seat each and the final seat could go absolutely anywhere.
LEADERDALE AND MELROSE
First preferences: C 1380 SNP 1042 LD 538 Douglas 159 Grn 152 Lab 115 Wilks 69
Final: C 1653 SNP 1297
If those votes had been cast in a 3-seat ordinary election then the Conservatives and SNP would have won one seat each with the final seat between the Lib Dems and the second Conservative candidate.
LIVINGSTON SOUTH
First preferences: SNP 2465 Lab 1382 C 989 Ind 332 Grn 234 LD 185 UKIP 29
Final: SNP 2703 Lab 1579 C 1124
If those votes had been cast in a 4-seat ordinary election then the SNP would have won two seats and Labour and the Conservatives would have won one seat each.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Mar 13, 2021 2:42:15 GMT
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 13, 2021 9:57:16 GMT
LEADERDALE AND MELROSE First preferences: C 1380 SNP 1042 LD 538 Douglas 159 Grn 152 Lab 115 Wilks 69 Final: C 1653 SNP 1297 If those votes had been cast in a 3-seat ordinary election then the Conservatives and SNP would have won one seat each with the final seat between the Lib Dems and the second Conservative candidate. Having had a look at the preference profile, the Lib Dems should pick up the SNP surplus to win the final seat. Once we're down to the top three parties the Conservatives are on 1.68 quotas, the SNP 1.34 and the Lib Dems 0.78; the SNP surplus goes 37% Lib Dem, 4% Conservative and 59% non-transferable, which puts the Lib Dems on 0.91 quotas and the Conservatives on 1.69. |
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 13, 2021 10:22:25 GMT
LEADERDALE AND MELROSE First preferences: C 1380 SNP 1042 LD 538 Douglas 159 Grn 152 Lab 115 Wilks 69 Final: C 1653 SNP 1297 If those votes had been cast in a 3-seat ordinary election then the Conservatives and SNP would have won one seat each with the final seat between the Lib Dems and the second Conservative candidate. Having had a look at the preference profile, the Lib Dems should pick up the SNP surplus to win the final seat. Once we're down to the top three parties the Conservatives are on 1.68 quotas, the SNP 1.34 and the Lib Dems 0.78; the SNP surplus goes 37% Lib Dem, 4% Conservative and 59% non-transferable, which puts the Lib Dems on 0.91 quotas and the Conservatives on 1.69. So the Conservatives (in this example) poll more than 2½ times the votes of the Liberal Democrats and they both finish with just one seat. Seems like a very good system for (not) reflecting popular opinion!! Furthermore 505 of the 1,033 (49%) first preference votes of the 5 candidates other than the most popular two are not ultimately transferred. Almost but not quite (on this occasion) the number of votes a party gets in order to elect a Councillor. Bit like the tail wagging the animal. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 13, 2021 10:24:08 GMT
LEADERDALE AND MELROSE First preferences: C 1380 SNP 1042 LD 538 Douglas 159 Grn 152 Lab 115 Wilks 69 Final: C 1653 SNP 1297 If those votes had been cast in a 3-seat ordinary election then the Conservatives and SNP would have won one seat each with the final seat between the Lib Dems and the second Conservative candidate. Having had a look at the preference profile, the Lib Dems should pick up the SNP surplus to win the final seat. Once we're down to the top three parties the Conservatives are on 1.68 quotas, the SNP 1.34 and the Lib Dems 0.78; the SNP surplus goes 37% Lib Dem, 4% Conservative and 59% non-transferable, which puts the Lib Dems on 0.91 quotas and the Conservatives on 1.69. In reality though, the incumbent indy comfortanly holds if they restand leaving one each for Tories and SNP. Similarly in the Highland ward, you probably get one each for the Tories and Nats and 3 incumbent indies battling for 2 seats. |
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Post by greyfriar on Mar 13, 2021 11:06:25 GMT
In their echo chamber they doubtless hear from few Tories |
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 15, 2021 23:32:45 GMT
AIRD AND LOCH NESS First preferences: Fraser 997 SNP 994 C 824 LD 300 Grn 272 Lab 133 Top 3: Fraser and SNP both on 119x (I am seeking confirmation of the exact figures) C 929 Final: Fraser 1663 SNP 1211 If those votes had been cast in a 4-seat ordinary election then Fraser, the SNP and the Conservatives would have won one seat each and the final seat could go absolutely anywhere. Now confirmed as SNP 1198 Fraser 1194. |
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