Greenlandic parliamentary and municipal elections 2021

[nelson]

Greenland is holding early elections to their 31 member parliament the Inatsisartut on the 6th of April along with the ordinary municipal and congregational council elections after the Greenlandic parliament was dissolved by a 27-4 vote after the Siumut led government lost its majority when the liberal Democrats left the coalition. . Main campaign themes: Mining (particularly uranium and rare earths), infrastructure investments (who gets what and how much capacity is needed), economic development, and unemployment. 

Premier Kim Kielsen recently lost the Siumut chairmanship to Erik Jensen, and the nominally Social Democratic but de facto populist governing party is deeply split on uranium and rare earth mining projects and infrastructure and expected to lose support along with the Democrats (for teaming up with Siumut without getting any real concessions). The main opposition party IA is expected to win.

Following the 2018 elections incumbent Premier Kim Kielsen formed a coalition with Atassut, Naleraq and Nunatta Qitornai, uniting all of the populist/anti-Nuuk elite parties. Kielsen's autocratic leadership style and disregard for his coalition partners combined with abrupt policy changes to accommodate various factions in Siumut caused a series of crisis. Naleraq left in November 2018 and Atassut in April the following year (the latter reducing it to a minority government). The Democrats (historically formed as a protest against Siumut's nepotism, corruption and incompetence) then joined the coalition in May last year without getting significant concessions which is the main reason they're losing support.

The latest serious poll (from researchers at the University of Greenland) is from 12 February, so before the government collapsed which most observers think will cost Siumut support.

IA 38.3 (+12.9) / 13 (+5)
Siumut 29.4 (+2.0) / 9 (nc)
Naleraq 12.2 (-1.2) / 4 (nc)
Democrats 11.3 (-8.2) / 3 (-3)
Atassut 6.8 (+0.9) / 2 (nc)
Nunatta Quitornai 1.2 (-2.2) / 0 (-1)
Cooperation Party 0.7 (-3.4) / 0 (-1)

Which would result in an IA led coalition with either the Democrats (2009-13 redux) or Naleraq as junior partner. The latter would be the green, anti-uranium extraction option, but IA and the Democrats share a rational, technocratic approach to politics while Naleraq are shameless populists and IA's stronghold is the capital Nuuk, which Naleraq's core supporters think gets prioritized far too much. On the other hand the 2009-13 government was viewed as an elitist alliance of the urban middle class against the "real Greenland" in the small towns and fishing villages, and alienated a lot of poor and/or less educated voters IA needs so they may after all prefer Naleraq. 

Short party description:

IA (nominally left wing and nationalist, but these days rather pragmatic, civic nationalist and business friendly, led the 2009-13 government)
Siumut (nominally Social Democrats, but populist and clientilist cath-all party, has led all other governments since Home Rule was introduced in 1979)
Democrats (liberals, mainly representing the educated urban middle class)
Atassut (conservatives with right wing populist tendencies, one of the Big Two from the early home rule era, had been reduced to a hapless Siumut appendix but recently reinvigorated by young right wingers and once again anti-independence since 2019)
Cooperation Party (unionist, Danish speaking minority interests, ironically completely unable to cooperate internally and collapsed through a series of bizarre feuds)
Naleraq (Siumut breakaway, more hardcore etnonationalist, fishing & hunting and "rural" interests, more green than Siumut)
Nunatta Quitornai (Siumut breakaway, more hardcore etnonationalist and even less principled)

[John Chanin]

Here’s a link to the last elections with odo’s extensive comments and knowledge (I miss her)

vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/11072/greenlandic-inatsisartut-election-2018

[nelson]

A couple of interesting polls from a recent academic study.

[mboy]

So Greenlanders are strongly against more cooperation with Russia, but strongly in favour of more cooperation with the Arctic Council...which includes Russia. Good to see public idiocy exists everywhere.

Also, this thread is surely peak Vote-UK ?

[neilm]

Foreign Policy article: foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/10/greenland-election-rare-earth-elements-china-us-europe/

There's a few more on Reuters etc.

[neilm]

Feb 22, 2021 18:50:51 GMT mboy said:

So Greenlanders are strongly against more cooperation with Russia, but strongly in favour of more cooperation with the Arctic Council...which includes Russia. Good to see public idiocy exists everywhere.

Also, this thread is surely peak Vote-UK ?

Sweden, Norway and Finland aren't listed in the poll, but they're in the Arctic Council. Presumably that's why.

[john07]

Feb 22, 2021 18:50:51 GMT mboy said:

So Greenlanders are strongly against more cooperation with Russia, but strongly in favour of more cooperation with the Arctic Council...which includes Russia. Good to see public idiocy exists everywhere.

Indeed as demonstrated by this reply.

On that basis anyone who does not want to work with Russia should be opposed to UN membership?

Very Trumpian.

[nelson]

HS Analyse, the only Greenlandic pollster apart from the university, has published a poll. IA drops a couple of points from the university's February poll and "only" gain 4 seats rather than 5, but are still leading by a clear margin. But IA also led in the polls before the two previous elections where Siumut (as the default choice) overperformed their polling numbers significantly. The MoE is 2.8 and it's weighed by gender, education, town/settlement and region. If the poll is accurate it would be Siumut's worst result ever. 

IA 36.2 (+10.7) 12 (+4)
Siumut 23.2 (-4.2) 8 (-1)
Naleraq 16.4 (+3.0) 5 (+1)
Democrats 13.4 (-6.1) 4 (-2)
Atassut 6.5 (+0.6) 2 (nc)
Cooperation Party 2.2 (-1.9) 0 (-1)
Nunatta Qitornai 2.1 (-1.3) 0 (-1)

[nelson]

A poll about the uranium mining project has 45% being strongly against it, 18% mostly against it, with 12% strongly supportive and 14% mostly supportive, while 11% don't know. 

The parties that are against the project (IA, Naleraq and the Cooperation Party) should benefit from such a clear anti-uranium majority. 

[nelson]

Results should be published here, but they haven't set up the 2021 elections yet. But it's still only 1 pm in Nuuk, so still seven hours to the polls close and they'll probably get around to it in the evening. 

[Chris from Brum]

Apr 6, 2021 14:53:48 GMT nelson said:

Results should be published here, but they haven't set up the 2021 elections yet. But it's still only 1 am in Nuuk, so still seven hours to the polls close and they'll probably get around to it in the evening. 

1 pm I hope!

[nelson]

Nearly all votes counted, IA won, but as usual Siumut did better than the polls and actually gained a bit. Turnout has dropped around 6 points since 2018, probably mainly due to Corona restrictions.

IA will also get the Mayor in the southern municipality. In Narsaq, where the planned uranium mining site is located, IA went from 42.5 to 72.5% in the municipal elections and from 28.5% to 53.5% in the national.

Biggest winners:
IA 36.6 (+11.1)
Siumut 29.4 (+2.2)
Atassut 6.9 (+1.0)

Biggest losers:
Democrats 9.1 (-10.4)
Cooperation Party 1.4 (-2.7)
Naleraq 12.0 (-1.4)
Nunatta Q 2.4 (-1.0)

[nelson]

Seat distribution:

IA 12
Siumut 10
Naleraq 4
Democrats 3
Atassut 2 

So IA and the Democrats don't have a majority and IA's only options are an anti-uranium coalition with the unruly populists in Naleraq or a Grand Coalition with Siumut. 

IA gets the mayor in 3 out of 5 municipalities (the bicoastal with Nuuk and the east coast, the southern (which they gain from Siumut), the one in Disco Bay (where they get an absolute majority), while Siumut retains the one around Greenland's 2nd largest town Sisimiut and the far north with tourist hub Ilullissat as the main town. 

[nelson]

Compared to the last poll:

Nunatta Qitornai +0.3
IA +0.4
Atassut +0.4
Cooperation Party -0.8
Democrats -4.3
Naleraq -4.4
Siumut +6.2

That's closer to the result than usual in Greenland and actually quite good given the circumstances (low turnout, difficulty of figuring out who had used postal votes etc.), for once not overestimating the IA vote.

A third of voters were undecided in the poll, and they clearly broke for Siumut (as usual), while the Democrats and the Cooperation Party with their well-educated middle class voters who had already made up their mind, underperformed more with late deciders than the pollster had expected. Naleraq probably genuinely lost support to Siumut in the final week of the campaign and it's clear some of their voters simply didn't show up, so you can't really blame the pollster for getting their numbers wrong - they may very well have been around 16% at the time.

[nelson]

Municipal seats:

Avannaata Kommunia (17)

Siumut 9 (nc)
IA 3 (+1)
Naleraq 2 (nc)
Atassut 2 (-1)
Democrats 1 (nc)

Kommune Qeqertalik (15)

IA 9 (+2)
Siumut 4 (-3)
Atassut 1 (nc)
Democrats 1 (+1)

Qeqqata Kommunia (15)

Siumut 6 (-2)
Naleraq 4 (+3)
IA 3 (nc)
Atassut 2 (-1)

Kommuneqarfik Sermersooq (19)

IA 9 (nc)
Siumut 6 (nc)
Naleraq 2 (+2)
Democrats 2 (-1)
Atassut 0 (-1)

Kommune Kujalleq (15)

IA 8 (+3)
Siumut 6 (-3)
Atassut 1 (nc)




...

Turnout was 65.8%, which is the lowest ever, and down 6.1 point from 2018, and only 61% in Nuuk (due to bad weather in the first half of the day and long queues afterwards), which likely hurt the parties with their main strength in the capital area (Democrats, Cooperation Party and to a lesser degree IA).

[nelson]

So far only The Democrats have left the national coalition negotiations, which is logical since they're the most pro-uranium mining party and their new chairman has moved the party to the right on economic issues.

In the three municipalities where IA doesn't have a majority coalition deals have been made in Qeqqata where Siumut gets the mayor in an "everybody against Naleraq" coalition with IA and Atassut and in Avannaata where young Minik Høegh-Dam from Siumut (the brother of the Siumut member of the Danish parliament Aki-Mathilda Høegh-Dam) is set to become mayor following a deal with Naleraq, although he may still fail to actually get elected when the council meets due to certain legal issues discussed below, while IA is still negotiating with their previous coalition partners the Democrats and Atassut in bicoastal Sermersooq.

There has been a bit of drama up north as the incumbent mayor in Avannaata Palle Jeremiassen left Siumut after it became clear that his fellow Siumut councillors wanted Minik Høegh-Dam, who got the most votes, to be the new mayor; Jeremiassen had implied that there was "something" which made Høegh-Dam unsuitable, but wouldn't publicly say what it was. The other parties had agreed not to negotiate before Siumut had agreed internally, but Naleraq broke the agreement and backed Høegh-Dam and will be getting the deputy mayorship in return (the Atassut party chairman is also a councillor in Avannaata and very angry at Naleraq about this which may make it less likely that the two parties end up in government together).

It then turned out that there is an ongoing court case against Høegh-Dam, the police charged him with drug dealing after they found the equivalent of 18k pounds in cash in an eyeglasses case which he couldn't account for and which they believe is the proceeds from selling hashish (by far the most common drug in Greenland). He was acquitted in the magistrates' court due to lack of evidence, but the prosecutor appealed the case to the High Court which he forgot to tell the voters. So far it seems his majority holds up and with ten seats behind him he can afford to lose one. If he's convicted and will have to step down deputy mayor Anthon Frederiksen (68), who used to have his own Conservative micro party 1993-2013 before he joined Naleraq and was the mayor of the municipality's main town Ilulissat 2001-08, would become the new mayor, which would be an interesting comeback. 

EDIT: Well, the Siumut board in Avannaata has withdrawn their support of  Høegh-Dam, the current deputy mayor Sakio Fleischer is now expected to become mayor as he got the 3rd most votes (and Palle Jeremiassen must be kicking himself for quitting too early). A bit of an anticlimax after all the drama, but also a testament that Greenlandic politics has become a bit more mature and less "anything goes" than it used to be, even in the far north.

[nelson]

Apr 13, 2021 13:06:58 GMT nelson said:

So far only The Democrats have left the national coalition negotiations, which is logical since they're the most pro-uranium mining party and their new chairman has moved the party to the right on economic issues.

IA has kicked out Siumut, Múte B. Egede says he doesn't believe a government with Siumut would be stable. IA/Naleraq now seems inevitable (it would be a big surprise if Atassut joined them, but they love the perks of being in government so it can't be ruled out completely). Atassut supported a national referendum on the mining project, so they can afford to compromise on the issue despite being very pro-mining in general.

[manchesterman]

Firstly props to nelson for his tremendous work/knowledge on this thread

Secondly, do you have any idea about what seems at first glance to be a weird border/gerrymander on that small area on the Western coast just north of Aasiaat? Looks dodgy but there may be perfectly logical reasons for it?

[nelson]

IA/Naleraq coalition, confidence and supply agreement with Atassut.

Coalition motto: "Solidarity, Stability and Growth"

Main focus: development without harming the environment and the fight against inequality.

Live stream of the presentation: 

[nelson]

Eight ministers from IA and two from Naleraq in the cabinet, six men and four women. Lots of veterans and the new Premier will be the second youngest in the cabinet. Naleraq founder ex-Premier (and before that settlement shopkeeper) Hans Enoksen becomes Speaker of the Inatsisartut. Strong representation of southerners and people from the east coast (unlike Siumut governments where northerners are invariably overrepresented). 

IA: 
Premier Múte B. Egede (34)
Minister of Finance and Interior Affairs Asii Chemnitz Narup (66), the former mayor of Nuuk 
Minister of Fishing and Hunting Aqqaluaq B. Egede (40), a relative a the Premier and deputy chairman of the party, carpenter and ex-councillor from Narsaq in the south
Minister of Education, Culture, Sport and Church Peter P. Olsen (late 50s), teacher and ex-machinist from Aasiaat who got the most votes in the municipal election and could have been mayor but chose national politics, former Greenlandic champion in taekwondo 
Minister of Social Affairs and Labour Market Mimi Karlsen (64), Minister of Education and Culture in the 2009-13 government
Minister of Housing, Infrastructure, Mining and Equality Naaja Nathanielsen (45), psychologist and Director of the Correctional Service, Danish speaker which means the cabinet meetings will have to be bilingual, something Naleraq founder Hans Enoksen used to be vehemently against 
Minister of Children, Youth, Families and Justice Eqaluk Høegh (20s), fex-PA for Kim Kielsen but quit as a protest against the government's inadequate response to rampant sexual abuse of children on the east coast (where he's from), former tv-satirist in hugely popular Labrador Kangian ("East of Labrador").  
Minister of Agriculture, Self-sufficiency, energy and environment Kalistat Lund (61), ex-mayor of Narsaq and ex-Siumut, aircraft mechanic and pilot. 

Naleraq:
Minister of Foreign Affairs, Trade, Climate and Business Pele Broberg (48), typical "minister of everything" combo goes to the somewhat dodgy businessman and ex-pilot, who is the party's de facto leader
Minister of Health Kirsten Fencker (mid 50s), career bureaucrat from the department