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Post by markgoodair on Mar 5, 2021 15:34:01 GMT
Thorniewood first preference result: Oyebola Ajala, Scottish Conservative and Unionist – 212 Jospeh Budd, Independent - 518 Eve Cunnington, Scottish National Party (SNP) – 944 Daryl Gardner, UKIP - 15 Helen Loughran, Scottish Labour Party – 998 Rosemary McGowan, Scottish Green Party – 53 That's only going one way with the Nats having only 53 votes to look to.  That would depend on how the preferences' of the independent candidate went. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 5, 2021 15:35:13 GMT
It shows the insanity of by-elections in STV elections. They'd be better off with candidates appointing an alternate/substitute at election, or parties being able to nominate someone for co-option. And before anyone says anything countback is even worse! Scottish local government byelections use Alternative Vote not STV. Well, STV reduces to AV if there is only one vacancy. (Quota = 50% + 1) Does anyone know if there has ever been a Scottish STV by-election for 2 vacancies? |
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 5, 2021 15:47:43 GMT
Labour gains 2 seats from SNP even though there were Labour to SNP swings since every broadly comparable election!!
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 5, 2021 15:48:59 GMT
Scottish local government byelections use Alternative Vote not STV. Well, STV reduces to AV if there is only one vacancy. (Quota = 50% + 1) Does anyone know if there has ever been a Scottish STV by-election for 2 vacancies? At least twice, IIRC, - one in lEith Walk, Edinburgh a few years ago and one last year, I think... |
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Post by MacShimidh on Mar 5, 2021 16:01:19 GMT
Two pretty strange results from which not much can be extrapolated.
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ColinJ
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Post by ColinJ on Mar 5, 2021 16:06:00 GMT
Two pretty strange results from which not much can be extrapolated. Although when the transfers are published it will be interesting to see how solid the Green transfers to SNP and 'unionist' transfers to Labour were. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2021 16:10:19 GMT
Good news for Labour for the first time in a long time.
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 5, 2021 16:14:20 GMT
It shows the insanity of by-elections in STV elections. They'd be better off with candidates appointing an alternate/substitute at election, or parties being able to nominate someone for co-option. And before anyone says anything countback is even worse! Are you suggesting having fewer by elections?? This is mutiny, Mr Christian!
you are going to have to walk the metaphorical Forum pl ank. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 5, 2021 16:32:58 GMT
Two pretty strange results from which not much can be extrapolated. Although when the transfers are published it will be interesting to see how solid the Green transfers to SNP and 'unionist' transfers to Labour were. TBH, I'm not sure there are enough Green transfers to extrapolate anything this week. |
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Post by listener on Mar 5, 2021 16:39:55 GMT
Thorniewood - the changes in vote share from 2017 are
new Independent picks up 18.9% - Lab down 13.9%, Con down 3.4%, SNP down 4.2%
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 5, 2021 16:41:36 GMT
And before anyone says anything countback is even worse! wouldn't be if parties all nominated full(ish) slates. Of course there are reasons why they don't. |
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Post by listener on Mar 5, 2021 16:45:04 GMT
The two by-elections tell a similar story. My quick calculations show against the 2017 first preference results:
Swings from Lab to SNP - Fortissat 3.6%, Thorniewood 9.6%
Swings from Lab to Con - Fortissat 8.3%, Thorniewood 10.5%
Swings from SNP to Con - Fortissat 4.7%, Thorniewood 0.9%
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pl
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Post by pl on Mar 5, 2021 16:56:31 GMT
It shows the insanity of by-elections in STV elections. They'd be better off with candidates appointing an alternate/substitute at election, or parties being able to nominate someone for co-option. And before anyone says anything countback is even worse! Are you suggesting having fewer by elections?? This is mutiny, Mr Christian! you are going to have to walk the metaphorical Forum pl ank. Absolutely not. I'm suggesting Scotland changes back to a serious electoral system like FPTP. But if Scotland insists on using bizarre STV, by elections are bonkers. |
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Post by dizz on Mar 5, 2021 17:07:10 GMT
Wiki has the full results:
Fortissat By-election (4 March 2021) - 1 Seat[15]
Party Candidate FPv% Count
1 2 3 4
Labour Peter Kelly 38.4% 1,071 1,073 1,093 1,408
SNP Sarah Quinn 34.6% 965 970 994 1,026
Conservative Ben Callaghan 23.5% 656 664 679
Scottish Green Kyle Davidson 2.5% 69 74
UKIP Neil Wilson 1.1% 31
Electorate: TBC Valid: 2,792 Spoilt: 29 Quota: 1,397 Turnout: 23.3%
Thorniewood
Thorniewood By-election (4 March 2021) - 1 Seat[16]
Party Candidate FPv% Count
1 2 3 4 5
Labour Helen Loughran 36.4% 998 999 1,018 1,112 1,263
SNP Eve Cunnington 34.5% 944 944 960 971 1,160
Conservative Oyebola Ajala 7.7% 212 215 220
Scottish Green Rosemary McGowan 1.9% 53 57
UKIP Daryl Gardner 0.5% 15
Electorate: TBC Valid: 2,740 Spoilt: 29 Quota: 1,371 Turnout: 25.4%
But the Inde is not appearing in Thorniewood - though their transfers are (the last round).
Hilarious transfer differential from the Cons in Fortissat favouring Labour i.e 10: 1 split to Lab.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2021 17:10:02 GMT
So in Thorniewood the Greens picked up more UKIP preferences than the Tories? Lol
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2021 17:13:02 GMT
And even more interestingly, Labour picked up more Green preferences than tye SNP, and came close to doing so in Fortissat as well
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pl
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Post by pl on Mar 5, 2021 17:29:26 GMT
So in Thorniewood the Greens picked up more UKIP preferences than the Tories? Lol I'd imagine that there are not many people still voting UKIP who are in any way Conservative inclined. They are probably the right-wing "dustbin" vote in such elections. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 5, 2021 18:48:54 GMT
Wiki has the full results: Fortissat By-election (4 March 2021) - 1 Seat[15] Party Candidate FPv% Count 1 2 3 4 Labour Peter Kelly 38.4% 1,071 1,073 1,093 1,408 SNP Sarah Quinn 34.6% 965 970 994 1,026 Conservative Ben Callaghan 23.5% 656 664 679 Scottish Green Kyle Davidson 2.5% 69 74 UKIP Neil Wilson 1.1% 31 Electorate: TBC Valid: 2,792 Spoilt: 29 Quota: 1,397 Turnout: 23.3% Thorniewood Thorniewood By-election (4 March 2021) - 1 Seat[16] Party Candidate FPv% Count 1 2 3 4 5 Labour Helen Loughran 36.4% 998 999 1,018 1,112 1,263 SNP Eve Cunnington 34.5% 944 944 960 971 1,160 Conservative Oyebola Ajala 7.7% 212 215 220 Scottish Green Rosemary McGowan 1.9% 53 57 UKIP Daryl Gardner 0.5% 15 Electorate: TBC Valid: 2,740 Spoilt: 29 Quota: 1,371 Turnout: 25.4% But the Inde is not appearing in Thorniewood - though their transfers are (the last round). Hilarious transfer differential from the Cons in Fortissat favouring Labour i.e 10: 1 split to Lab. Although I think more non-transferred than went to Labour, which is pretty much what I'd expect. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Mar 5, 2021 18:55:51 GMT
Wiki has the full results: Fortissat By-election (4 March 2021) - 1 Seat[15] Party Candidate FPv% Count 1 2 3 4 Labour Peter Kelly 38.4% 1,071 1,073 1,093 1,408 SNP Sarah Quinn 34.6% 965 970 994 1,026 Conservative Ben Callaghan 23.5% 656 664 679 Scottish Green Kyle Davidson 2.5% 69 74 UKIP Neil Wilson 1.1% 31 Electorate: TBC Valid: 2,792 Spoilt: 29 Quota: 1,397 Turnout: 23.3% Thorniewood Thorniewood By-election (4 March 2021) - 1 Seat[16] Party Candidate FPv% Count 1 2 3 4 5 Labour Helen Loughran 36.4% 998 999 1,018 1,112 1,263 SNP Eve Cunnington 34.5% 944 944 960 971 1,160 Conservative Oyebola Ajala 7.7% 212 215 220 Scottish Green Rosemary McGowan 1.9% 53 57 UKIP Daryl Gardner 0.5% 15 Electorate: TBC Valid: 2,740 Spoilt: 29 Quota: 1,371 Turnout: 25.4% But the Inde is not appearing in Thorniewood - though their transfers are (the last round). Hilarious transfer differential from the Cons in Fortissat favouring Labour i.e 10: 1 split to Lab. Although I think more non-transferred than went to Labour, which is pretty much what I'd expect. barely so. 332-315. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2021 19:17:37 GMT
Although I think more non-transferred than went to Labour, which is pretty much what I'd expect. barely so. 332-315. If the Salmond-Sturgeon affair has any major impact it will probably be that more unionists are willing to vote tactically against the SNP |
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