Post by where2travel on Feb 4, 2021 23:17:26 GMT
Introduction
Now a safe Labour seat, Lewisham East as the name suggests is made up largely of the eastern section of the London Borough of Lewisham. Located just south of Greenwich, the constituency is split into two by the Prime Meridian Line running almost continuously north-south down the constituency (except through a small part of Hither Green which is in Lewisham Deptford). The much more visible line of the South Circular also cuts east-west through the middle of the constituency.
Lewisham East borders the neighbouring borough of Greenwich to the north and east, the constituency of Bromley and Chislehurst to the south and the other two Lewisham constituencies along its western edge. Lewisham East has much in common with neighbouring Lewisham West & Penge.
Lewisham East has been in its current form since 2010 boundary changes. It consists of seven wards, from affluent Blackheath in the north of the seat, heading south to the east of Lewisham town centre (which is in the Deptford seat) through Lee Green and to Grove Park on the eastern edge. The wards to the west cover the main population centre in the seat, Catford (home to Lewisham Town Hall) with the grittier wards of Rushey Green, Catford South, Whitefoot and finally Downham in the very south of the constituency, which stretches through Beckenham Place Park (half of which is in this seat) as far as Ravensbourne station (Beckenham) where Lewisham East meets three other constituencies at a point.
Arguably the 2010 changes made things ever so sightly better for the Conservatives (it’s quite possible they may have also won the seat in 1992 on these boundaries), swapping in some areas where they had a better history whilst losing slightly less favourable areas. However, their success in those parts had long since been swept away, largely by demographic changes, to make no difference in practice to the results following these changes.
The Constituency…a bit more detail
Blackheath (split between Lewisham and Greenwich boroughs) is attractive and still retains a village-like feel (despite the A2, which is the northern boundary of the constituency, running through the heath). It’s very much the jewel in Lewisham’s crown with an upper middle class demography (and with its large open heath creates obvious comparisons to north London’s Hampstead). It’s always been and remains a sought-after area, since wealthy residents had homes surrounding the heath itself, there is a lot of large Victorian and Georgian houses in the area. Not surprisingly some of these have since been converted into flats.
Blackheath naturally extends to Lee and then to Hither Green (of which only a part is in this constituency). This is an increasingly popular area with professionals and families with young children. Lee in particular has wide range of Victorian terraces, pre-war semi detached homes and townhouses, yet is more affordable than Blackheath. This is the one part of the constituency that has experienced more of the gentrification seen in other parts of Lewisham and inner South London, which is clearly evidenced also with an array of cafes, bars and shops having changed the area. There is no underground or DLR in this constituency but areas close to the railway stations provide quick commuter links into the City and to the West End, as well as to Canary Wharf.
The railway line cuts this area in two, the northern half towards Blackheath described above being more sought after. The other side leads towards the South Circular and the bulk of this constituency, Catford. Here is much more social housing, social deprivation is high, and this is very much a low-to-middle income area with a significant minority ethnic population. Catford is probably one of the last areas in this part of London to resist urban renewal, although there is a sense things are slowly changing, but it still has a long way to go to catch up with the likes of Brockley and Forest Hill nearby. Catford greyhound stadium closed in 2003, lay derelict for a long time, but has recently seen the completion of 600 homes close to the centre of the town and to its two railway stations (literally a stone’s throw apart from each other).
As with much of this part of London, it was primarily agricultural land until the arrival of the railways in the mid-late 1800s. when homes were built for the affluent middle classes and building continued as Catford grew with large Victorian and Edwardian homes. Significant parts of Catford were destroyed during WWII, and a lot of the subsequent post-war development was much less kind architecturally. South of Catford is Downham, home to the very large 1920s housing estate, built as inner-city London overspill. The Downham Estate was home to the World’s largest pub, the Downham Tavern, when it was built but like many estates built at that time, decline set in over the years and the area became increasingly run down and unloved.
In the south-eastern corner of the constituency is Grove Park, one of the more prosperous parts of Lewisham, and one that’s seen least change. It’s a part of south-east London that non-locals often haven’t even heard of and it arguably has more in common with its neighbouring areas of leafy Bromley suburbia, just over the border.
Demographic Factors and voting
The demographics of this seat have made it increasingly safe for Labour in recent years. Since this was a Conservative seat in the 1980s, there has been a rapid increase in the ethnic minority population. Black/African/Caribbean (7th/650) make up a big proportion of the ethnic minority population here, offset by a much smaller Asian population (137th, which is low for a London seat of this nature).
Many of the demographics would be considered typical or average for London, perhaps reflecting this seat’s location (as not really part of inner London nor outer London). However, there are high levels of socially rented housing (63rd) and unemployment (68th).
Conservatives in those areas where they performed strongly enough to win Lewisham East have long since moved further out to Bromley, Orpington and beyond. Many of their replacements are anything but Conservative with young families and professionals here being far more likely to be public sector and left-leaning, and the ethnic minority vote being heavily Labour.
What’s left of the white working class population here is now concentrated mainly in the southern ward of Downham and, to a lesser extent, Grove Park. In a heavily remain constituency (65% remain, the lowest of the three Lewisham seats), the leave vote would also have been concentrated here too. However, it’s unlikely to turn around Conservative fortunes.
It’s a long time since the Conservatives have won anywhere in Lewisham East other than Grove Park. They could win Grove Park in reasonable years (and it remains more marginal than the rest of the borough), but now it feels like they need a very good year to even be in with a real shout of this ward.
Elections (including the 2018 by-election)
Between 1979 and 1997 the constituency was a marginal seat. The Conservatives held the seat from 1983 to 1992 and the MP was Colin Moynihan (the Minister for Sport). In 1983 Polly Toynbee contested the seat for the SDP (finishing 3rd).
Not surprisingly there was a big swing to Labour in 1997 and the Conservatives’ vote share has been stuck in the low 20s at every General Election since then. Two Conservative candidates during this time have since found better opportunity elsewhere to become MPs, James Cleverley (2005 candidate) and Philip Hollobone (1997). With reasonable Local Election success for the Lib Dems, increasing in the early 2000s (they won 4 of the 7 wards in 2006), they came second in the 2010 General Election, but the main challenge usually comes from the Conservatives, although they’re falling further and further behind Labour who can now rack up 30-40%-plus majorities (as seen in 2015, 17 and 19). The Lib Dem slump in 2015 saw them fall into 4th place, behind UKIP and they’ve only recovered to a distant 3rd since then (at around 10% or below).
Heidi Alexander resigned as an MP in 2018 to become Deputy Mayor of London for Transport, triggering a by-election. Having secured 68% of the vote (and a 21K majority) just 12 months earlier, this should have been an uneventful by-election and easy hold for Labour. However, internal wranglings about candidate selection led to reports about splits in the party, drawing more attention than expected. Janet Daby was eventually selected as the Labour candidate from an all-female, all-BAME shortlist. A local councillor and with a pro-EU stance (promising to fight to remain in the Single Market and Customs Union), and consistent with her predecessor, meant that talk of the Lib Dems being in with a post-referendum chance of winning this Remain seat didn’t amount to much of a real threat. They did however finish a credible second, after their lowest ever percentage vote here in 2017 (4%). With a 14-candidate field and a 33% turnout, Labour went on to hold the seat with a reduced vote share of 50% (down 18% on the General Election).
In the 2014 Local Elections (and again in 2018) Labour won all the wards in Lewisham East, with the Lib Dems losing the remaining wards they had built up, and the Conservatives losing their final holdout in Grove Park.
Now a safe Labour seat, Lewisham East as the name suggests is made up largely of the eastern section of the London Borough of Lewisham. Located just south of Greenwich, the constituency is split into two by the Prime Meridian Line running almost continuously north-south down the constituency (except through a small part of Hither Green which is in Lewisham Deptford). The much more visible line of the South Circular also cuts east-west through the middle of the constituency.
Lewisham East borders the neighbouring borough of Greenwich to the north and east, the constituency of Bromley and Chislehurst to the south and the other two Lewisham constituencies along its western edge. Lewisham East has much in common with neighbouring Lewisham West & Penge.
Lewisham East has been in its current form since 2010 boundary changes. It consists of seven wards, from affluent Blackheath in the north of the seat, heading south to the east of Lewisham town centre (which is in the Deptford seat) through Lee Green and to Grove Park on the eastern edge. The wards to the west cover the main population centre in the seat, Catford (home to Lewisham Town Hall) with the grittier wards of Rushey Green, Catford South, Whitefoot and finally Downham in the very south of the constituency, which stretches through Beckenham Place Park (half of which is in this seat) as far as Ravensbourne station (Beckenham) where Lewisham East meets three other constituencies at a point.
Arguably the 2010 changes made things ever so sightly better for the Conservatives (it’s quite possible they may have also won the seat in 1992 on these boundaries), swapping in some areas where they had a better history whilst losing slightly less favourable areas. However, their success in those parts had long since been swept away, largely by demographic changes, to make no difference in practice to the results following these changes.
The Constituency…a bit more detail
Blackheath (split between Lewisham and Greenwich boroughs) is attractive and still retains a village-like feel (despite the A2, which is the northern boundary of the constituency, running through the heath). It’s very much the jewel in Lewisham’s crown with an upper middle class demography (and with its large open heath creates obvious comparisons to north London’s Hampstead). It’s always been and remains a sought-after area, since wealthy residents had homes surrounding the heath itself, there is a lot of large Victorian and Georgian houses in the area. Not surprisingly some of these have since been converted into flats.
Blackheath naturally extends to Lee and then to Hither Green (of which only a part is in this constituency). This is an increasingly popular area with professionals and families with young children. Lee in particular has wide range of Victorian terraces, pre-war semi detached homes and townhouses, yet is more affordable than Blackheath. This is the one part of the constituency that has experienced more of the gentrification seen in other parts of Lewisham and inner South London, which is clearly evidenced also with an array of cafes, bars and shops having changed the area. There is no underground or DLR in this constituency but areas close to the railway stations provide quick commuter links into the City and to the West End, as well as to Canary Wharf.
The railway line cuts this area in two, the northern half towards Blackheath described above being more sought after. The other side leads towards the South Circular and the bulk of this constituency, Catford. Here is much more social housing, social deprivation is high, and this is very much a low-to-middle income area with a significant minority ethnic population. Catford is probably one of the last areas in this part of London to resist urban renewal, although there is a sense things are slowly changing, but it still has a long way to go to catch up with the likes of Brockley and Forest Hill nearby. Catford greyhound stadium closed in 2003, lay derelict for a long time, but has recently seen the completion of 600 homes close to the centre of the town and to its two railway stations (literally a stone’s throw apart from each other).
As with much of this part of London, it was primarily agricultural land until the arrival of the railways in the mid-late 1800s. when homes were built for the affluent middle classes and building continued as Catford grew with large Victorian and Edwardian homes. Significant parts of Catford were destroyed during WWII, and a lot of the subsequent post-war development was much less kind architecturally. South of Catford is Downham, home to the very large 1920s housing estate, built as inner-city London overspill. The Downham Estate was home to the World’s largest pub, the Downham Tavern, when it was built but like many estates built at that time, decline set in over the years and the area became increasingly run down and unloved.
In the south-eastern corner of the constituency is Grove Park, one of the more prosperous parts of Lewisham, and one that’s seen least change. It’s a part of south-east London that non-locals often haven’t even heard of and it arguably has more in common with its neighbouring areas of leafy Bromley suburbia, just over the border.
Demographic Factors and voting
The demographics of this seat have made it increasingly safe for Labour in recent years. Since this was a Conservative seat in the 1980s, there has been a rapid increase in the ethnic minority population. Black/African/Caribbean (7th/650) make up a big proportion of the ethnic minority population here, offset by a much smaller Asian population (137th, which is low for a London seat of this nature).
Many of the demographics would be considered typical or average for London, perhaps reflecting this seat’s location (as not really part of inner London nor outer London). However, there are high levels of socially rented housing (63rd) and unemployment (68th).
Conservatives in those areas where they performed strongly enough to win Lewisham East have long since moved further out to Bromley, Orpington and beyond. Many of their replacements are anything but Conservative with young families and professionals here being far more likely to be public sector and left-leaning, and the ethnic minority vote being heavily Labour.
What’s left of the white working class population here is now concentrated mainly in the southern ward of Downham and, to a lesser extent, Grove Park. In a heavily remain constituency (65% remain, the lowest of the three Lewisham seats), the leave vote would also have been concentrated here too. However, it’s unlikely to turn around Conservative fortunes.
It’s a long time since the Conservatives have won anywhere in Lewisham East other than Grove Park. They could win Grove Park in reasonable years (and it remains more marginal than the rest of the borough), but now it feels like they need a very good year to even be in with a real shout of this ward.
Elections (including the 2018 by-election)
Between 1979 and 1997 the constituency was a marginal seat. The Conservatives held the seat from 1983 to 1992 and the MP was Colin Moynihan (the Minister for Sport). In 1983 Polly Toynbee contested the seat for the SDP (finishing 3rd).
Not surprisingly there was a big swing to Labour in 1997 and the Conservatives’ vote share has been stuck in the low 20s at every General Election since then. Two Conservative candidates during this time have since found better opportunity elsewhere to become MPs, James Cleverley (2005 candidate) and Philip Hollobone (1997). With reasonable Local Election success for the Lib Dems, increasing in the early 2000s (they won 4 of the 7 wards in 2006), they came second in the 2010 General Election, but the main challenge usually comes from the Conservatives, although they’re falling further and further behind Labour who can now rack up 30-40%-plus majorities (as seen in 2015, 17 and 19). The Lib Dem slump in 2015 saw them fall into 4th place, behind UKIP and they’ve only recovered to a distant 3rd since then (at around 10% or below).
Heidi Alexander resigned as an MP in 2018 to become Deputy Mayor of London for Transport, triggering a by-election. Having secured 68% of the vote (and a 21K majority) just 12 months earlier, this should have been an uneventful by-election and easy hold for Labour. However, internal wranglings about candidate selection led to reports about splits in the party, drawing more attention than expected. Janet Daby was eventually selected as the Labour candidate from an all-female, all-BAME shortlist. A local councillor and with a pro-EU stance (promising to fight to remain in the Single Market and Customs Union), and consistent with her predecessor, meant that talk of the Lib Dems being in with a post-referendum chance of winning this Remain seat didn’t amount to much of a real threat. They did however finish a credible second, after their lowest ever percentage vote here in 2017 (4%). With a 14-candidate field and a 33% turnout, Labour went on to hold the seat with a reduced vote share of 50% (down 18% on the General Election).
In the 2014 Local Elections (and again in 2018) Labour won all the wards in Lewisham East, with the Lib Dems losing the remaining wards they had built up, and the Conservatives losing their final holdout in Grove Park.
