mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961 
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Post by mondialito on Jan 29, 2021 14:59:56 GMT
Tories gaining Battersea is a hardy perennial. Not inconceivable of course, but it would require them to abandon their anti-London culture war first. I think you misread Battersea, it actually has it being having a 5 figure majority for Labour now. Past nowcasts have had the Tories gaining Battersea while losing seats elsewhere, which doesn't make sense for reasons I have already made clear. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jan 29, 2021 15:19:59 GMT
I'm slightly hesitant to throw stones because I know from my own work it is not particularly easy to create a national model without some outlandish and barely credible results in individual constituencies. But a 7,000+ Labour majority in Colchester? Seriously?!?
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 29, 2021 15:27:10 GMT
I'm slightly hesitant to throw stones because I know from my own work it is not particularly easy to create a national model without some outlandish and barely credible results in individual constituencies. But a 7,000+ Labour majority in Colchester? Seriously?!? Why are any of you giving any time at all to this utter nonsense from an unknown outfit with a really silly name. What does it matter with 4-years to next GE? Are the Poll findings in any way accurate or meaningful? This simplistic logic model extrapolates on basis of everywhere is the same. Uniform accurate swing everywhere. Some results are so silly they should be embarrassed to print. Ignore it all. |
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,456
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jan 29, 2021 15:37:47 GMT
I'm slightly hesitant to throw stones because I know from my own work it is not particularly easy to create a national model without some outlandish and barely credible results in individual constituencies. But a 7,000+ Labour majority in Colchester? Seriously?!? Why are any of you giving any time at all to this utter nonsense from an unknown outfit with a really silly name. What does it matter with 4-years to next GE? Are the Poll findings in any way accurate or meaningful? This simplistic logic model extrapolates on basis of everywhere is the same. Uniform accurate swing everywhere. Some results are so silly they should be embarrassed to print. Ignore it all. This far out it is only worthwhile as 'just a bit of fun'. A few months before the election that's different |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2021 15:52:06 GMT
I'm slightly hesitant to throw stones because I know from my own work it is not particularly easy to create a national model without some outlandish and barely credible results in individual constituencies. But a 7,000+ Labour majority in Colchester? Seriously?!? That actually seems like one of the less ridiculous predictions...... |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jan 29, 2021 16:05:22 GMT
I'm slightly hesitant to throw stones because I know from my own work it is not particularly easy to create a national model without some outlandish and barely credible results in individual constituencies. But a 7,000+ Labour majority in Colchester? Seriously?!? That actually seems like one of the less ridiculous predictions...... Yes I think the upper end of a successful Labour election next time would be gaining seats like Colchester, but certainly not with a 7,000 majority |
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 29, 2021 16:29:25 GMT
I like the layout of their site and a few of the "tools" you can use on it to play about with..but there actual predictions leaves their methodology in serious question!!
Wales, as observed, seems particularly bonkers. Ive seen projections with Labour gaining all sorts of '1997-scale' surprise seats, but actually losing about another 5 seats in Wales!
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jan 29, 2021 17:33:44 GMT
That actually seems like one of the less ridiculous predictions...... Yes I think the upper end of a successful Labour election next time would be gaining seats like Colchester, but certainly not with a 7,000 majority If there was a 2005 type overall majority then yes fair enough but in a hung parliament (which is what the overall model is predicting) labour don't get anywhere near taking Colchester. |
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Post by rivers10 on Jan 29, 2021 17:38:34 GMT
I'm slightly hesitant to throw stones because I know from my own work it is not particularly easy to create a national model without some outlandish and barely credible results in individual constituencies. But a 7,000+ Labour majority in Colchester? Seriously?!? Why are any of you giving any time at all to this utter nonsense from an unknown outfit with a really silly name. What does it matter with 4-years to next GE? Are the Poll findings in any way accurate or meaningful? This simplistic logic model extrapolates on basis of everywhere is the same. Uniform accurate swing everywhere. Some results are so silly they should be embarrassed to print. Ignore it all. In deeply troubling news I agree with every word of this!!! |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2021 17:38:54 GMT
Yes I think the upper end of a successful Labour election next time would be gaining seats like Colchester, but certainly not with a 7,000 majority If there was a 2005 type overall majority then yes fair enough but in a hung parliament (which is what the overall model is predicting) labour don't get anywhere near taking Colchester. Colchester is going through the same transition as Southport where a changing tactical vote situation moves it from a Tory-LibDem marginal to a Tory Labour one. The combined Lab+LD vote was more than the Tory vote in 2017, (which was also the first time Labour had beaten the LDs there since the seat's recreation) and only 3.6% behind in 2019. So Labour taking Colchester in a hung parliament isn't that unbelievable |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jan 29, 2021 22:42:10 GMT
The Scottish numbers are ridiculous. The SNP will not win every seat and they certainly won't get nearly 60% of the vote. Madness.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jan 30, 2021 2:00:07 GMT
Labour gains in both Bournemouth East and West?! Not happening. Not in 4 years. In 20 years, if student numbers keep rising, maybe. But next election, no way. And 2 Labour seats in Cornwall?
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Post by froome on Jan 30, 2021 9:01:09 GMT
Does anyone know who these clowns are?
I'm just curious, as having looked at my home seat, Bath, I note that apparently we didn't stand a candidate last time round, as they have us on 3.31% as being an increase of 3.31% from the last election. Now that might just be an error, but I do remember that the poll that Labour did here before the last election, which they used to publicise how well they would do, conveniently forgot to list us a potential party to vote for, despite Bath having always had a Green candidate and usually polling close to Labour's vote. And strangely 3.31% pops up again in next door North East Somerset, where they show that as our vote increase.
As for Labour coming second here, and first in North East Somerset, well I'll let you draw your own conclusions...
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 30, 2021 10:51:37 GMT
Labour gains in both Bournemouth East and West?! Not happening. Not in 4 years. In 20 years, if student numbers keep rising, maybe. But next election, no way. And 2 Labour seats in Cornwall?Actually one of the more realistic "predictions", however unlikely it would have seemed just 5 years ago. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 30, 2021 12:28:30 GMT
Labour gains in both Bournemouth East and West?! Not happening. Not in 4 years. In 20 years, if student numbers keep rising, maybe. But next election, no way. And 2 Labour seats in Cornwall? I agree that both Bouremouth seats are presently beyond them, two Labour gains in Cornwall are in no way fantastic predictions - the Conservatives only have a majority of 4561 votes over Labour in Truro and Falmouth and whilst the George Eustice looks more comfortable in Camborne and Redruth with a majority of 8,700, that constituency's history of big shifts do not put it out of the way for Labour (the 2017 majority over Labour was only 1,507). Unlikely, maybe, but the Brexit fishing deal had not gone down well in Cornwall. I could certainly see two Cornish Labour seats in the next but one electoral cycle. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 30, 2021 12:32:57 GMT
I like the layout of their site and a few of the "tools" you can use on it to play about with..but there actual predictions leaves their methodology in serious question!! Wales, as observed, seems particularly bonkers. Ive seen projections with Labour gaining all sorts of '1997-scale' surprise seats, but actually losing about another 5 seats in Wales! Well then! I think I may have a car to suit you Sir. It looks gorgeous. It has a deep throaty engine sound. The handling is awful and the brakes are crap and it is quite slow as well. |
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Post by justin124 on Jan 30, 2021 19:13:13 GMT
Have they really got Rees-Mogg losing to Labour ? Labour probably would have won there in 2005. |
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Post by greenchristian on Feb 2, 2021 18:36:29 GMT
Have they really got Rees-Mogg losing to Labour ? Labour probably would have won there in 2005. But there was a Westminster election in 2005 and they didn't win there. I can only assume you intended to finish that sentence with an if of some sort, but I can't work out what that if is supposed to be. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 2, 2021 19:10:45 GMT
Labour probably would have won there in 2005. But there was a Westminster election in 2005 and they didn't win there. I can only assume you intended to finish that sentence with an if of some sort, but I can't work out what that if is supposed to be. Labour did win the Wansdyke constituency in 2005 with a majority of around 1,800. The boundary changes which translated this seat into NE Somerset (which weren't all that sweeping) converted this into a notional Conservative majority of just over 200 - well within the margin of error for these kind of calculations. Also nearly 7,000 voters were added from Bath where many Labour supporters would have vote Lib Dem. Had the seat been fought on these boundaries it's easy to imagine enough of these reverting to their traditional loyalty to keep the seat in the Labour column (and indeed some Lib Dems voting tactically for Labour) |
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Post by justin124 on Feb 2, 2021 23:07:09 GMT
Labour probably would have won there in 2005. But there was a Westminster election in 2005 and they didn't win there. I can only assume you intended to finish that sentence with an if of some sort, but I can't work out what that if is supposed to be. The seat did not exist until 2010 - though much of it was in the former Wansdyke constituency which was won by Labour in 2005. |
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