Dorset Mid and Poole North
Jan 28, 2021 14:24:31 GMT
Pete Whitehead, Robert Waller, and 2 more like this
Post by andrewp on Jan 28, 2021 14:24:31 GMT
When the county of Dorset was awarded an eight and additional seat in the fifth parliamentary boundary review which concluded in 1995, there was little doubt as to which of the eight proposed constituencies was the ‘extra’ seat- it was this one. Its name gives away the fact that this is a mixture of outer suburbia from the Poole and Bournemouth conurbation and surrounding small towns and villages. This is, however, a relatively compact seat and far from the worst ‘Mid’ county seat in existence. On creation the seat took voters from four previous seats but only the two real different sources suggested in the seat name. 40000 voters came from the northern most wards of the Borough of Poole and 24000 voters from the Mid Dorset component, in the small towns and big villages of Wareham, Lytchett Minster, Lytchett Mattravers, and Corfe Mullen. In subsequent boundary changes the Dorset Mid part has increased in size with the addition of the fashionable little town of Wimborne Minster, whilst the Poole North section has been reduced by the removal of 2 wards back to Poole and Bournemouth West.
This is a fairly affluent and comfortable semi rural and semi suburban constituency and is the 485th most deprived constituency in England. It is a popular place for commuters who work in Bournemouth and Poole. It has a long history in many of its wards of voting Liberal Democrat in Local elections and Conservative in national elections, apart from that period between 2001-10 when the Lib Dems were able to translate this local success into national Elections. It is 98% white, in the top 50 constituencies in England for the % of houses that are owned outright and in the top 50 constituencies for the 45-64 year old age group, all of this reflecting comfortable established suburbia
The North Poole part of this seat contains the wards of Bearwood and Murley, Canford Heath and Broadstone. These wards are full of relatively affluent post war suburbia. These wards were all won by approximately 2 to 1 by the Lib Dems in 2019, but when local elections have been held on the same day as local elections such as in 2015 we can see that these wards are realtively even between the Conservatives and Lib Dems at general elections.
In the Mid Dorset section are two historic towns in Wareham and Wimborne Minster. Wareham lies to the South West of Poole and has a population of about 8000 and is a Georgian town, having been rebuilt in that period following a devastating fire. Wimborne Minster lies to the North of Poole and has a population of 15000. It is home to a fine Norman and Gothic minster. Both of these towns also voted 2 to 1 for the Liberal Democrats at the 2019 local elections, but would be carried by the Conservatives in general elections.
Corfe Mullen and Lytchett Mattravers are rapidly expanding affluent large villages on the edge of the Poole conurbation. Corfe Mullen actually merging into the North Poole suburb of Broadstone. Bere Regis is at the western and most rural end of the seat, and is also the most Conservative part.
Apart from in that party’s nadir of 2015, the Liberal Democrats have always elected a majority of the councillors in this constituency, and in 2019 at the elections to the new unitary Dorset and new Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole council, the Liberal Democrats elected 19 of the 21 councillors in this constituency.
As with any ‘mid’ county seat, the future of this seat does not look particularly secure. Population growth means that Dorset is unlikely to lose seats but Mid county seats always look vulnerable to the whims of the Boundary Commission.
When the seat was first contested it was thought to be a decent Liberal Democrat target with a notional Conservative majority from 1992 of 6054. None of the sitting Dorset Conservative MPs risked a contest here and the Liberal Democrats selected the party’s London based non local Director of Strategy and Planning as their candidate. In that breakthrough year for the Liberal Democrats they would have been disappointed to have lost out to new Conservative candidate Chris Fraser by 681 votes. In 2001, the Liberal Democrats selected the more local Annette Brooke, a former Mayor of Poole and she edged Chris Fraser out by just 384 votes. Brooke had a further close shave when she hung on by 269 in 2010. Annette Brooke retired in 2015 and the Lib Dems selected future Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council leader Vikki Slade as her successor. In that disastrous year for the Lib Dems, the seat elected Conservative Michael Tomlinson by over 10,000 votes. He has since beaten Vikki Slade again in 2017 and 2019, and with a majority of 15,000 in 2019. In a seat that voted 57% leave, he now looks secure for the foreseeable future, boundary commission rulings aside.
2011 census
Owner occupied- 77.8%- 33/650
Private Rented-10.7%- 545/650
Social Rented- 9.8%-591/650
White: 98% 114/650
Black: 0.1%- 598/650
Asian: 0.9%- 540/650
Managerial and Professional- 35%
Routine and Semi Routine- 23.5%
Degree Level- 27.1%- 272/650
No qualifications- 18.9%-504/650
Students- 3.3%- 554/650
Age 65+- 21.6%- 69/650
This is a fairly affluent and comfortable semi rural and semi suburban constituency and is the 485th most deprived constituency in England. It is a popular place for commuters who work in Bournemouth and Poole. It has a long history in many of its wards of voting Liberal Democrat in Local elections and Conservative in national elections, apart from that period between 2001-10 when the Lib Dems were able to translate this local success into national Elections. It is 98% white, in the top 50 constituencies in England for the % of houses that are owned outright and in the top 50 constituencies for the 45-64 year old age group, all of this reflecting comfortable established suburbia
The North Poole part of this seat contains the wards of Bearwood and Murley, Canford Heath and Broadstone. These wards are full of relatively affluent post war suburbia. These wards were all won by approximately 2 to 1 by the Lib Dems in 2019, but when local elections have been held on the same day as local elections such as in 2015 we can see that these wards are realtively even between the Conservatives and Lib Dems at general elections.
In the Mid Dorset section are two historic towns in Wareham and Wimborne Minster. Wareham lies to the South West of Poole and has a population of about 8000 and is a Georgian town, having been rebuilt in that period following a devastating fire. Wimborne Minster lies to the North of Poole and has a population of 15000. It is home to a fine Norman and Gothic minster. Both of these towns also voted 2 to 1 for the Liberal Democrats at the 2019 local elections, but would be carried by the Conservatives in general elections.
Corfe Mullen and Lytchett Mattravers are rapidly expanding affluent large villages on the edge of the Poole conurbation. Corfe Mullen actually merging into the North Poole suburb of Broadstone. Bere Regis is at the western and most rural end of the seat, and is also the most Conservative part.
Apart from in that party’s nadir of 2015, the Liberal Democrats have always elected a majority of the councillors in this constituency, and in 2019 at the elections to the new unitary Dorset and new Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole council, the Liberal Democrats elected 19 of the 21 councillors in this constituency.
As with any ‘mid’ county seat, the future of this seat does not look particularly secure. Population growth means that Dorset is unlikely to lose seats but Mid county seats always look vulnerable to the whims of the Boundary Commission.
When the seat was first contested it was thought to be a decent Liberal Democrat target with a notional Conservative majority from 1992 of 6054. None of the sitting Dorset Conservative MPs risked a contest here and the Liberal Democrats selected the party’s London based non local Director of Strategy and Planning as their candidate. In that breakthrough year for the Liberal Democrats they would have been disappointed to have lost out to new Conservative candidate Chris Fraser by 681 votes. In 2001, the Liberal Democrats selected the more local Annette Brooke, a former Mayor of Poole and she edged Chris Fraser out by just 384 votes. Brooke had a further close shave when she hung on by 269 in 2010. Annette Brooke retired in 2015 and the Lib Dems selected future Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council leader Vikki Slade as her successor. In that disastrous year for the Lib Dems, the seat elected Conservative Michael Tomlinson by over 10,000 votes. He has since beaten Vikki Slade again in 2017 and 2019, and with a majority of 15,000 in 2019. In a seat that voted 57% leave, he now looks secure for the foreseeable future, boundary commission rulings aside.
2011 census
Owner occupied- 77.8%- 33/650
Private Rented-10.7%- 545/650
Social Rented- 9.8%-591/650
White: 98% 114/650
Black: 0.1%- 598/650
Asian: 0.9%- 540/650
Managerial and Professional- 35%
Routine and Semi Routine- 23.5%
Degree Level- 27.1%- 272/650
No qualifications- 18.9%-504/650
Students- 3.3%- 554/650
Age 65+- 21.6%- 69/650
