Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 9, 2021 23:46:32 GMT
How do you know what they considered? Because they state that Solihull had to be paired with Birmingham or Coventry and make no mention of any possibility of pairing it with Warwickshire. Which does not preclude the possibility that they considered it but simply rejected it out right. The report will obviously not cover everything that they considered but it seems quite clear that they did not want to cross county boundaries unless absolutely necessary. There is a reasonable argument that as Warwickshire fits fine for 6 seats, and with only very minor changes, that a Warwickshire-Solihull crossing could not be justified.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 10, 2021 14:53:24 GMT
Turning to Solihull, I expect significant opposition to the inclusion of Silhill in the Meriden constituency. The ward forms a core part of Solihull running right along the edge of the town centre.
The solution here is obvious, simply swap Silhill for Blythe and then split Elmdon along the blindingly obvious split of Elmdon Park.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 10, 2021 15:33:28 GMT
If you're putting Solihull with Warwickshire rather than Birmingham, then I might have quite a neat ward split: compared to the present Solihull seat, add Blythe and remove Elmdon and Lyndon, where there's a strong boundary following the canal. That leaves you ten electors short.
Then add the bits of Knowle ward north of the M42. It's only a couple of streets, but you only need 10 electors and there must be at least a hundred there. It looks like that section of Warwick Road is a dead end, so at the moment electors there can only get to the rest of the Meriden constituency by car by going through Solihull anyway.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 10, 2021 16:13:17 GMT
If you're putting Solihull with Warwickshire rather than Birmingham, then I might have quite a neat ward split: compared to the present Solihull seat, add Blythe and remove Elmdon and Lyndon, where there's a strong boundary following the canal. That leaves you ten electors short. Then add the bits of Knowle ward north of the M42. It's only a couple of streets, but you only need 10 electors and there must be at least a hundred there. It looks like that section of Warwick Road is a dead end, so at the moment electors there can only get to the rest of the Meriden constituency by car by going through Solihull anyway. That works just as well with the current Solihull / Birmingham split, which I think we can assume will survive the review* and yes the Warwick Rd is a dead end to cars at that point with just a foot bridge going over the M42. Personally I prefer keeping as much as urban Solihull together as possible thus I would keep Lyndon in it and split Elmdon, which I can only reiterate is two distinct areas separated by a large park, but I certainly consider your solution an acceptable one and far, far better than taking Silhill out of Solihull. * The commission clearly want a minimal change 6 seat Warwickshire and I can't see them relenting on that and Castle Brom + Smiths Wood into a Birmingham seat is probably the easiest sell. Therefore Solihull and Meriden seats made up of the other 15 wards seems almost certain and it is just a matter of how to divide them.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 11, 2021 5:35:55 GMT
* The commission clearly want a minimal change 6 seat Warwickshire and I can't see them relenting on that and Castle Brom + Smiths Wood into a Birmingham seat is probably the easiest sell. Therefore Solihull and Meriden seats made up of the other 15 wards seems almost certain and it is just a matter of how to divide them. I tend to agree on this but I'm still going to put my option in anyway, there is a part where they talk about orphan wards in Warwickshire and crossing into Solihull allows for two of those to be solved as well as getting rid of the silly Warwick Doughut. In the same way you don't like splitting Silhill from the centre and I agree on that, I don't like splitting Chelmsley Wood.
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jun 11, 2021 7:49:47 GMT
* The commission clearly want a minimal change 6 seat Warwickshire and I can't see them relenting on that and Castle Brom + Smiths Wood into a Birmingham seat is probably the easiest sell. Therefore Solihull and Meriden seats made up of the other 15 wards seems almost certain and it is just a matter of how to divide them. I tend to agree on this but I'm still going to put my option in anyway, there is a part where they talk about orphan wards in Warwickshire and crossing into Solihull allows for two of those to be solved as well as getting rid of the silly Warwick Doughut. In the same way you don't like splitting Silhill from the centre and I agree on that, I don't like splitting Chelmsley Wood. What's the objection to doughnuts? I've never got why some people seem to have a problem with them. (Or is it specific to that one?)
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Jun 11, 2021 12:09:51 GMT
Having spent some time looking at them, I've come to the conclusion the Birmingham proposals are absolute dross.
The new ward boundaries were a change to take a fresh look at how best to divide the city, and instead they've decided to stick as close as possible to the current set up, whilst splitting wards unnecessarily, maintaining all the flaws in the current plan (eg the ridiculous Selly Oak constituency), and even finding time to add even more flaws (the Lozells panhandle, North Edgbaston with Edgbaston, splitting Balsall Heath).
There are much better options that stick to whole wards, or at least split them more efficiently, and I can't understand why the BCE have made these choices in Birmingham when they've been generally quite sensible and pragmatic in other cities.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 11, 2021 14:16:47 GMT
In the same way you don't like splitting Silhill from the centre and I agree on that, I don't like splitting Chelmsley Wood. I don't like splitting Chelmsley Wood either but there is a reasonable argument that goes a) Maintaining a 6 seat minimum change Warwickshire is a sensible start b) Therefore two Solihull wards need to go into Birmingham seats c) Two orphan Solihull wards in separate Birmingham seats would be bad d) Castle Brom + Smiths Wood in a Birmingham seat is the best option to move a pair of wards Although thinking about I would be okay with using the Solihull suggested by East Anglian Lefty but putting Lyndon and Elmdon into a Brum seat while keeping Castle Brom and Smiths Wood in Meriden
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 11, 2021 14:44:01 GMT
Something like this?
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 11, 2021 15:07:17 GMT
Something like this? Preferably I would include Yardley West, South Yardley and either Tyseley or Heartlands keeping the WCML as the northern border but obviously every option has compromises and sub optimal bits somewhere.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 13, 2021 9:46:54 GMT
Using the Commission's plan as a starting point and so including Castle Brom and Smiths Wood in a Birmingham seat I have come up with a plan that I think is a substantial improvement. It relies on only 1 split ward, and a split that I consider beneficial for its own sake. Like all plans it has its share of imperfections but none are as bad as some of the Commission's proposals.
1. Sutton Coldfield (74,584) - Unchanged 2. Perry Barr (74,979) - As per the Commission Plan - Kingstanding, Oscott, Perry Barr, Handsworth, Handsworth Wood, Holyhead, Birchfield 3. Ladywood (74,195) - Ladywood, North Edgbaston, Soho and Jewellery Quarter, Lozells, Newtown, Aston, Nechells 4. Edgbaston (73,763) - Edgbaston, Harborne, Quinton, Bartley Green, Weoley and Selly Oak 5. Northfield (75,634) - Frankley Great Parky, Rubery and Rednall, Northfield, Longbridge and West Heath, Allens Cross, Bournville and Cotteridge, Kings Norton (X2) 6. Erdington (76,567) - Perry Common, Stockland Green, Erdington, Gravely Hill, Pype Hayes, Castle Vale, Hodge Hill, Ward End 7. Moseley (73,894) - Moseley, Sparkhill, Bournbrook and Selly Park, Stirchly, Brandwood, Druids Heath and Moneyhull 8. Hall Green (74,599) - Hall Green X 2, Acocks Green, South Yardley, Tyseley and Hall Mills, Billesley, Highters Heath 9. Small Heath (72,025 plus ) - Small Heath, Heatlands, Bordesley Green, Bordesley and Highgate, Alum Rock, Sparkbrook and Balsall Heath East, Balsall Heath West plus The part of Glebe Farm and Tile Cross to the West of the River Cole. 10. Yardley (77,570 minus)- Sheldon, Garrets Green, Yardley East, Yardley West, Glebe Farm and Tile Cross, Shard End, Castle Brom, Smiths Wood minus The part of Glebe Farm and Tile Cross to the West of the River Cole.
I am not sure how many electors there are in the area of Glebe Farm and Tile Cross that I wish to detach but it will certainly lie between 508 and 5037 assuring that both Small Heath and Yardley will be in range.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 13, 2021 10:22:22 GMT
Using the Commission's plan as a starting point and so including Castle Brom and Smiths Wood in a Birmingham seat I have come up with a plan that I think is a substantial improvement. It relies on only 1 split ward, and a split that I consider beneficial for its own sake. Like all plans it has its share of imperfections but none are as bad as some of the Commission's proposals. 1. Sutton Coldfield (74,584) - Unchanged 2. Perry Barr (74,979) - As per the Commission Plan - Kingstanding, Oscott, Perry Barr, Handsworth, Handsworth Wood, Holyhead, Birchfield 3. Ladywood (74,195) - Ladywood, North Edgbaston, Soho and Jewellery Quarter, Lozells, Newtown, Aston, Nechells 4. Edgbaston (73,763) - Edgbaston, Harborne, Quinton, Bartley Green, Weoley and Selly Oak 5. Northfield (75,634) - Frankley Great Parky, Rubery and Rednall, Northfield, Longbridge and West Heath, Allens Cross, Bournville and Cotteridge, Kings Norton (X2) 6. Erdington (76,567) - Perry Common, Stockland Green, Erdington, Gravely Hill, Pype Hayes, Castle Vale, Hodge Hill, Ward End 7. Moseley (73,894) - Moseley, Sparkhill, Bournbrook and Selly Park, Stirchly, Brandwood, Druids Heath and Moneyhull 8. Hall Green (74,599) - Hall Green X 2, Acocks Green, South Yardley, Tyseley and Hall Mills, Billesley, Highters Heath 9. Small Heath (72,025 plus ) - Small Heath, Heatlands, Bordesley Green, Bordesley and Highgate, Alum Rock, Sparkbrook and Balsall Heath East, Balsall Heath West plus The part of Glebe Farm and Tile Cross to the West of the River Cole. 10. Yardley (77,570 minus)- Sheldon, Garrets Green, Yardley East, Yardley West, Glebe Farm and Tile Cross, Shard End, Castle Brom, Smiths Wood minus The part of Glebe Farm and Tile Cross to the West of the River Cole. I am not sure how many electors there are in the area of Glebe Farm and Tile Cross that I wish to detach but it will certainly lie between 508 and 5037 assuring that both Small Heath and Yardley will be in range. About 1000 voters there I reckon - seems to roughly correspond to the (old?) DMG polling district. Glebe Farm & Tile Cross is such a fucking stupid ward Excellent plan
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 13, 2021 11:57:31 GMT
Using the Commission's plan as a starting point and so including Castle Brom and Smiths Wood in a Birmingham seat I have come up with a plan that I think is a substantial improvement. It relies on only 1 split ward, and a split that I consider beneficial for its own sake. Like all plans it has its share of imperfections but none are as bad as some of the Commission's proposals. 1. Sutton Coldfield (74,584) - Unchanged 2. Perry Barr (74,979) - As per the Commission Plan - Kingstanding, Oscott, Perry Barr, Handsworth, Handsworth Wood, Holyhead, Birchfield 3. Ladywood (74,195) - Ladywood, North Edgbaston, Soho and Jewellery Quarter, Lozells, Newtown, Aston, Nechells 4. Edgbaston (73,763) - Edgbaston, Harborne, Quinton, Bartley Green, Weoley and Selly Oak 5. Northfield (75,634) - Frankley Great Parky, Rubery and Rednall, Northfield, Longbridge and West Heath, Allens Cross, Bournville and Cotteridge, Kings Norton (X2) 6. Erdington (76,567) - Perry Common, Stockland Green, Erdington, Gravely Hill, Pype Hayes, Castle Vale, Hodge Hill, Ward End 7. Moseley (73,894) - Moseley, Sparkhill, Bournbrook and Selly Park, Stirchly, Brandwood, Druids Heath and Moneyhull 8. Hall Green (74,599) - Hall Green X 2, Acocks Green, South Yardley, Tyseley and Hall Mills, Billesley, Highters Heath 9. Small Heath (72,025 plus ) - Small Heath, Heatlands, Bordesley Green, Bordesley and Highgate, Alum Rock, Sparkbrook and Balsall Heath East, Balsall Heath West plus The part of Glebe Farm and Tile Cross to the West of the River Cole. 10. Yardley (77,570 minus)- Sheldon, Garrets Green, Yardley East, Yardley West, Glebe Farm and Tile Cross, Shard End, Castle Brom, Smiths Wood minus The part of Glebe Farm and Tile Cross to the West of the River Cole. I am not sure how many electors there are in the area of Glebe Farm and Tile Cross that I wish to detach but it will certainly lie between 508 and 5037 assuring that both Small Heath and Yardley will be in range. now if only it lay above 2288 (if I summed right in my head) so you could switch Elmdon and Lyndon in... some alternative split of the ward that does that available?
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 13, 2021 12:02:28 GMT
I was really surprised at how easy it all fell together.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 13, 2021 12:07:02 GMT
now if only it lay above 2288 (if I summed right in my head) so you could switch Elmdon and Lyndon in... some alternative split of the ward that does that available? Technically yes but in reality it would be terrible. The area immediately east of the River Cole has very few residents (although there are some new houses going up there) assuming Pete is right about there being about 1,000 electors in the area that I am splitting you would have extend well past the outer ring road and into areas that would be woefully cut off, and demographically very different, from the rest of seat.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 13, 2021 12:48:11 GMT
Although I think Pete's estimate is too low. The area contains all of the old DMG polling district, a decent chunk of DMF and a bit of DMI. Probably more like 2,000 in my estimation.
Annoyingly I still have the electoral registers from Washwood Heath ward from 2011 and 2012 on my computer but they are password protected and I have no idea what the password is.
However having applied some thought to this
Old Shard End ward had roughly 18,000 electors New Shard End ward has roughly 8,300 electors At least 500 electors from old Shard End went into Hodge Hill
That leaves around a maximum of around 9,200 votes from old Shard End in Glebe Farm and Tile Cross. From memory I think the area that came from Stechford and Yardley North had about 3,600 electors. That leaves about 2,000 electors in the area in question.
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 13, 2021 17:55:55 GMT
That area to the west of the River Cole appears to be new polling district GFT1 which had a local government electorate of 2135 and the figures in the downloadable from the Commission is 2136.
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 13, 2021 18:17:00 GMT
That area to the west of the River Cole appears to be new polling district GFT1 which had a local government electorate of 2135 and the figures in the downloadable from the Commission is 2136. so close, yet so far. You'd need 2140 to be able to switch in only Lyndon for Smith's Wood. Though you could switch Elmdon in for Smith's Wood on these numbers.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 13, 2021 19:27:05 GMT
Well it only needed to be above 500
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Post by minionofmidas on Jun 13, 2021 19:31:16 GMT
Well it only needed to be above 500 if it is to include Castle Bromwich and Smith's Wood. I'd rather that be avoided. wd be a very different thing entirely if including all of Chelmsley Wood in a Brum seat was an option, of course.
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