2023 Review - West Midlands

[J.G.Harston]

2023 Review - West Midlands

[greenchristian]

57 seats (down 2)

Someone else posted that the quotas range is 69,723-77,063 with a target of 73,393. If those figures are incorrect let me know and I'll redo this post with the correct figures.

Breakdowns as follows:

Herefordshire 1.94

Existing seats both within quota

Shropshire 5.12

The Wrekin is in quota

Ludlow and Telford are below quota

North Shropshire and Shrewsbury & Atcham are above quota

Staffordshire 11.35

Burton, Cannock Chase, Lichfield, South Staffs, Stafford, Stone, and Tamworth are all within quota

Newcastle-under-Lyme, Staffordshire Moorlands, and all three Stoke-on-Trent seats are all below quota

Warwickshire 5.89

North Warwickshire, Nuneaton, Rugby, Stratford-on-Avon, and Warwick & Leamington are all within quota

Kenilworth and Southam is below quota

Worcestershire 6.09

Bromsgrove, West Worcs, and Wyre Forest are all within quota (though Wyre Forest goes over if you add the 2020 attainers)

Redditch is below quota

Mid-Worcs is over quota

West Mids - Coventry 2.97

North West and North East are within quota

South is below quota

West Mids - Solihull 2.22

Meriden and Solihull are both above quota

West Mids - Birmingham 9.95

Ladywood, Northfield, Perry Barr, Yardley, and Sutton Coldfield are all within quota

Edgbaston and Erdington are below quota

Hall Green, Hodge Hill, and Selly Oak are above quota

West Mids - Sandwell & Dudley 6.12 (based on the seven seats, not including the Dudley ward in Wolverhampton SE)

All seven seats in these boroughs are below quota (Dudley N, Dudley S, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Stourbridge, Warley, West Brom E, West Brom W)

West Mids - Walsall 2.69

All three seats are below quota (Aldridge-Brownhills, Walsall North, Walsall South)

West Mids - Wolverhampton 2.48 (current wolves seats)/2.35 (wolves council area)

All three seats are below quota (North East, South East, South West)

So it looks like Staffordshire loses one, as does the Black Country (and that will need more than one cross-borough seat).

[ilerda]

Jan 5, 2021 18:06:45 GMT greenchristian said:

57 seats (down 2)

Someone else posted that the quotas range is 69,723-77,063 with a target of 73,393. If those figures are incorrect let me know and I'll redo this post with the correct figures.

Note: I calculated this on the constituency figures in table 2. Adding up the local authority figures in table 3 gives me a different total for Sandwell & Dudley, so take it with a pinch of salt.

Breakdowns as follows:

Herefordshire 1.94

Existing seats both within quota

Shropshire 5.12

The Wrekin is in quota

Ludlow and Telford are below quota

North Shropshire and Shrewsbury & Atcham are above quota

Staffordshire 11.35

Burton, Cannock Chase, Lichfield, South Staffs, Stafford, Stone, and Tamworth are all within quota

Newcastle-under-Lyme, Staffordshire Moorlands, and all three Stoke-on-Trent seats are all below quota

Warwickshire 5.89

North Warwickshire, Nuneaton, Rugby, Stratford-on-Avon, and Warwick & Leamington are all within quota

Kenilworth and Southam is below quota

Worcestershire 7.04

Bromsgrove, West Worcs, and Wyre Forest are all within quota (though Wyre Forest goes over if you add the 2020 attainers)

Redditch and Stourbridge are below quota

Mid-Worcs is over quota

West Mids - Coventry 2.97

North West and North East are within quota

South is below quota

West Mids - Solihull 2.22

Meriden and Solihull are both above quota

West Mids - Birmingham 9.95

Ladywood, Northfield, Perry Barr, Yardley, and Sutton Coldfield are all within quota

Edgbaston and Erdington are below quota

Hall Green, Hodge Hill, and Selly Oak are above quota

West Mids - Sandwell & Dudley 5.17

All six seats in these boroughs are below quota (Dudley N, Dudley S, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Warley, West Brom E, West Brom W)

West Mids - Walsall 2.69

All three seats are below quota (Aldridge-Brownhills, Walsall North, Walsall South)

West Mids - Wolverhampton 2.48

All three seats are below quota (North East, South East, South West)

So it looks like Staffordshire loses one, as does the Black Country (and that will need more than one cross-borough seat).

Stourbridge is in the West Midlands (Dudley), not Worcestershire.

[greenchristian]

Jan 5, 2021 18:48:31 GMT ilerda said:

Jan 5, 2021 18:06:45 GMT greenchristian said:

57 seats (down 2)

Someone else posted that the quotas range is 69,723-77,063 with a target of 73,393. If those figures are incorrect let me know and I'll redo this post with the correct figures.

Note: I calculated this on the constituency figures in table 2. Adding up the local authority figures in table 3 gives me a different total for Sandwell & Dudley, so take it with a pinch of salt.

Breakdowns as follows:

Herefordshire 1.94

Existing seats both within quota

Shropshire 5.12

The Wrekin is in quota

Ludlow and Telford are below quota

North Shropshire and Shrewsbury & Atcham are above quota

Staffordshire 11.35

Burton, Cannock Chase, Lichfield, South Staffs, Stafford, Stone, and Tamworth are all within quota

Newcastle-under-Lyme, Staffordshire Moorlands, and all three Stoke-on-Trent seats are all below quota

Warwickshire 5.89

North Warwickshire, Nuneaton, Rugby, Stratford-on-Avon, and Warwick & Leamington are all within quota

Kenilworth and Southam is below quota

Worcestershire 7.04

Bromsgrove, West Worcs, and Wyre Forest are all within quota (though Wyre Forest goes over if you add the 2020 attainers)

Redditch and Stourbridge are below quota

Mid-Worcs is over quota

West Mids - Coventry 2.97

North West and North East are within quota

South is below quota

West Mids - Solihull 2.22

Meriden and Solihull are both above quota

West Mids - Birmingham 9.95

Ladywood, Northfield, Perry Barr, Yardley, and Sutton Coldfield are all within quota

Edgbaston and Erdington are below quota

Hall Green, Hodge Hill, and Selly Oak are above quota

West Mids - Sandwell & Dudley 5.17

All six seats in these boroughs are below quota (Dudley N, Dudley S, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Warley, West Brom E, West Brom W)

West Mids - Walsall 2.69

All three seats are below quota (Aldridge-Brownhills, Walsall North, Walsall South)

West Mids - Wolverhampton 2.48

All three seats are below quota (North East, South East, South West)

So it looks like Staffordshire loses one, as does the Black Country (and that will need more than one cross-borough seat).

Stourbridge is in the West Midlands (Dudley), not Worcestershire.

Corrected my idiotic mistake whilst you were posting.

[islington]

Jan 5, 2021 18:06:45 GMT greenchristian said:

57 seats (down 2)

Someone else posted that the quotas range is 69,723-77,063 with a target of 73,393. If those figures are incorrect let me know and I'll redo this post with the correct figures.

Breakdowns as follows:

Herefordshire 1.94

Existing seats both within quota

Shropshire 5.12

The Wrekin is in quota

Ludlow and Telford are below quota

North Shropshire and Shrewsbury & Atcham are above quota

Staffordshire 11.35

Burton, Cannock Chase, Lichfield, South Staffs, Stafford, Stone, and Tamworth are all within quota

Newcastle-under-Lyme, Staffordshire Moorlands, and all three Stoke-on-Trent seats are all below quota

Warwickshire 5.89

North Warwickshire, Nuneaton, Rugby, Stratford-on-Avon, and Warwick & Leamington are all within quota

Kenilworth and Southam is below quota

Worcestershire 6.09

Bromsgrove, West Worcs, and Wyre Forest are all within quota (though Wyre Forest goes over if you add the 2020 attainers)

Redditch is below quota

Mid-Worcs is over quota

West Mids - Coventry 2.97

North West and North East are within quota

South is below quota

West Mids - Solihull 2.22

Meriden and Solihull are both above quota

West Mids - Birmingham 9.95

Ladywood, Northfield, Perry Barr, Yardley, and Sutton Coldfield are all within quota

Edgbaston and Erdington are below quota

Hall Green, Hodge Hill, and Selly Oak are above quota

West Mids - Sandwell & Dudley 6.12

All seven seats in these boroughs are below quota (Dudley N, Dudley S, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Stourbridge, Warley, West Brom E, West Brom W)

West Mids - Walsall 2.69

All three seats are below quota (Aldridge-Brownhills, Walsall North, Walsall South)

West Mids - Wolverhampton 2.48

All three seats are below quota (North East, South East, South West)

So it looks like Staffordshire loses one, as does the Black Country (and that will need more than one cross-borough seat).

On these numbers I'd suggest treating Wolverhampton with Staffs = 13.83 = 14; Dudley/Sandwell/Walsall = 8.81 = 9; Warwks/Solihull = 8.11 = 8; each of the other areas can be treated separately.

[loderingo]

I think the number above for Wolverhampton is wrong (one Dudley ward is in Wolverhampton SE). I think it should be 2.35.

Based on this I would suggest the following:

Hereford - 1.94 - 2 seats (unchanged)
Shropshire and Telford - 5.12 - 5 seats (unchanged)
Worcs - 6.09 - 6 seats (unchanged)
Solihull (2.22) + Warks (5.89) = 8.11 - 8 seats (unchanged)
Birmingham - 9.95 = 10 seats (unchanged)
Coventry - 2.97 = 3 seats (unchanged)
Sandwell - 2.98 = 3 seats (pairing broken)
Walsall (2.69) + Wolverhampton(2.35) = 5.04 (new pairing. Down 1 seat)
Dudley (3.27) + Staffs (11.35) = 14.61 = 15 (new pairing. Down 1 seat)

For the Staffs/Dudley seat I would suggest pairing most of Stourbridge town with Kinver and Wombourne
The Walsall/Wolves pairing goes nicely - you can take all the Walsall wards west of the M6 and Wednesfield from Wolverhampton

[greenchristian]

Jan 5, 2021 21:07:14 GMT loderingo said:

I think the number above for Wolverhampton is wrong (one Dudley ward is in Wolverhampton SE). I think it should be 2.35.

Fair enough. I compiled the figures from the constituencies, as I was checking which current seats are in quota at the same time. Will amend my post to note both figures.

[Andrew_S]

Last time Tamworth was just short of the quota. Looks like it's easily within it this time. Should make life easier in the southern half of Staffordshire.

[greenchristian]

Here are all the ways of doing Coventry with a single ward swap from Coventry South:

Swaps with North East:
St Michaels for Lower Stoke
St Michaels for Wyken
Binley & Willenhall for Lower Stoke

Swaps with North West:
Earlsdon for Woodlands

My first instinct on glancing at the numbers was St Michaels for Lower Stoke. The Earlsdon/Woodlands swap feels like the most complicated. It reunites Tile Hill but leaves the Earlsdon area split in a different place to how it is now. It also makes the new South constituency a very odd shape, one which is only just connected all the way around.

I'll leave playing around with anything else until Boundary Assistant is updated, but this was simple enough to do by hand.

[ilerda]

Although it can be done with a single ward swap, might it not be advantageous to do a big of rejigging across the city. There are a couple of combinations that take St Michaels out of South and drastically improve the boundaries across the whole city at a result.

Coventry East - 76,175 (Binley & Willenhall, Henley, Longford, Lower Stoke, Upper Stoke, Wyken)
Coventry West - 70,024 (Bablake, Foleshill, Holbrook, Radford, Sherbourne, St Michael's)
Coventry South - 71,619 (Cheylesmore, Earlsdon, Wainbody, Westwood, Whoberley, Woodlands)

Alternatively, if you wanted to keep Binley & Willenhall in South and Whoberely in North West then it would be:

Coventry North East - 74,572 (Henley, Longford, Lower Stoke, St Michael's, Upper Stoke, Wyken)
Coventry North West - 71,012 (Bablake, Foleshill, Holbrook, Radford, Sherbourne, Whoberley)
Coventry South - 72,234 (Binley & Willenhall, Cheylesmore, Earlsdon, Wainbody, Westwood, Woodlands)

[greenchristian]

Jan 6, 2021 9:19:40 GMT ilerda said:

Although it can be done with a single ward swap, might it not be advantageous to do a big of rejigging across the city. There are a couple of combinations that take St Michaels out of South and drastically improve the boundaries across the whole city at a result.

Coventry East - 76,175 (Binley & Willenhall, Henley, Longford, Lower Stoke, Upper Stoke, Wyken)
Coventry West - 70,024 (Bablake, Foleshill, Holbrook, Radford, Sherbourne, St Michael's)
Coventry South - 71,619 (Cheylesmore, Earlsdon, Wainbody, Westwood, Whoberley, Woodlands)

Alternatively, if you wanted to keep Binley & Willenhall in South and Whoberely in North West then it would be:

Coventry North East - 74,572 (Henley, Longford, Lower Stoke, St Michael's, Upper Stoke, Wyken)
Coventry North West - 71,012 (Bablake, Foleshill, Holbrook, Radford, Sherbourne, Whoberley)
Coventry South - 72,234 (Binley & Willenhall, Cheylesmore, Earlsdon, Wainbody, Westwood, Woodlands)

That rejig can be done, but since there are four different options for a single ward swap there is virtually no chance of the Boundary Commission making more drastic changes to Coventry unless they're forced to do something cross-border by the numbers in Solihull and Warwickshire, since the rules bias them towards minimal change. Whilst you can propose a wider reorganisation you'll have to make some really strong arguments (or have your proposal be actively supported by a lot of people) to have any chance of them being implemented.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 6, 2021 9:19:40 GMT ilerda said:

Although it can be done with a single ward swap, might it not be advantageous to do a big of rejigging across the city. There are a couple of combinations that take St Michaels out of South and drastically improve the boundaries across the whole city at a result.

Coventry East - 76,175 (Binley & Willenhall, Henley, Longford, Lower Stoke, Upper Stoke, Wyken)
Coventry West - 70,024 (Bablake, Foleshill, Holbrook, Radford, Sherbourne, St Michael's)
Coventry South - 71,619 (Cheylesmore, Earlsdon, Wainbody, Westwood, Whoberley, Woodlands)

Alternatively, if you wanted to keep Binley & Willenhall in South and Whoberely in North West then it would be:

Coventry North East - 74,572 (Henley, Longford, Lower Stoke, St Michael's, Upper Stoke, Wyken)
Coventry North West - 71,012 (Bablake, Foleshill, Holbrook, Radford, Sherbourne, Whoberley)
Coventry South - 72,234 (Binley & Willenhall, Cheylesmore, Earlsdon, Wainbody, Westwood, Woodlands)

Bye bye Zara

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jan 6, 2021 9:41:57 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jan 6, 2021 9:19:40 GMT ilerda said:

Although it can be done with a single ward swap, might it not be advantageous to do a big of rejigging across the city. There are a couple of combinations that take St Michaels out of South and drastically improve the boundaries across the whole city at a result.

Coventry East - 76,175 (Binley & Willenhall, Henley, Longford, Lower Stoke, Upper Stoke, Wyken)
Coventry West - 70,024 (Bablake, Foleshill, Holbrook, Radford, Sherbourne, St Michael's)
Coventry South - 71,619 (Cheylesmore, Earlsdon, Wainbody, Westwood, Whoberley, Woodlands)

Alternatively, if you wanted to keep Binley & Willenhall in South and Whoberely in North West then it would be:

Coventry North East - 74,572 (Henley, Longford, Lower Stoke, St Michael's, Upper Stoke, Wyken)
Coventry North West - 71,012 (Bablake, Foleshill, Holbrook, Radford, Sherbourne, Whoberley)
Coventry South - 72,234 (Binley & Willenhall, Cheylesmore, Earlsdon, Wainbody, Westwood, Woodlands)

Bye bye Zara

That's raisin the stakes

[greenchristian]

Jan 6, 2021 10:15:06 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

Jan 6, 2021 9:41:57 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Bye bye Zara

That's raisin the stakes

These puns date rather quickly.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jan 6, 2021 10:40:46 GMT greenchristian said:

Jan 6, 2021 10:15:06 GMT nodealbrexiteer said:

That's raisin the stakes

These puns date rather quickly.

No, they're very currant.

[greenchristian]

Just realised I'd somehow missed two more single-swap Coventry options (St Michaels for either Whoberley or Woodlands). I really must stop having these brain-freezes.

[Pete Whitehead]

St Michaels for Woodlands will do nicely

[The Bishop]

Jan 6, 2021 9:41:57 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jan 6, 2021 9:19:40 GMT ilerda said:

Although it can be done with a single ward swap, might it not be advantageous to do a big of rejigging across the city. There are a couple of combinations that take St Michaels out of South and drastically improve the boundaries across the whole city at a result.

Coventry East - 76,175 (Binley & Willenhall, Henley, Longford, Lower Stoke, Upper Stoke, Wyken)
Coventry West - 70,024 (Bablake, Foleshill, Holbrook, Radford, Sherbourne, St Michael's)
Coventry South - 71,619 (Cheylesmore, Earlsdon, Wainbody, Westwood, Whoberley, Woodlands)

Alternatively, if you wanted to keep Binley & Willenhall in South and Whoberely in North West then it would be:

Coventry North East - 74,572 (Henley, Longford, Lower Stoke, St Michael's, Upper Stoke, Wyken)
Coventry North West - 71,012 (Bablake, Foleshill, Holbrook, Radford, Sherbourne, Whoberley)
Coventry South - 72,234 (Binley & Willenhall, Cheylesmore, Earlsdon, Wainbody, Westwood, Woodlands)

Bye bye Zara

Before getting too excited about such a prospect, how would that seat have voted in pre-2019 elections?

[Pete Whitehead]

Jan 6, 2021 12:50:27 GMT The Bishop said:

Jan 6, 2021 9:41:57 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Bye bye Zara

Before getting too excited about such a prospect, how would that seat have voted in pre-2019 elections?

I'd have to check - I've worked it out before and I think it was close in 2010 and 2015. The Tories underperform in wards like Wainbody and Earlsdon in general elections and you're never going to be able to create a safe Conservative seat in Coventry but that version of Coventry South is about the optimum set of boundaries for at least putting them in contention (perhaps improved a shade by replacing Cheylesmore with Bablake to convert the seat into Coventry West)

[iainbhx]

Jan 5, 2021 21:07:14 GMT loderingo said:

For the Staffs/Dudley seat I would suggest pairing most of Stourbridge town with Kinver and Wombourne

Would suggest that isn't a particularly good fit. Well, Kinver is, but not so much Wombourne.

More likely that the Kingswinford wards and Wordsley head into a South Staffs seat with everything in the finger south of Codsall. That would also fit a lot better in terms of communities.

You then get a Dudley seat, a Halesowen seat and a Stourbridge seat. The Halesowen seat is a bit odd, but something always will be with those pairings.