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Post by islington on Mar 26, 2021 10:20:41 GMT
Fit the Umpteenth: The continuing saga of assigning (mostly) above-average-sized seats to north London.
Enfield - 76748. The current Enfield N seat (with ward realignments) plus Grange Pk. Edmonton - 74244. Current seat (realigned) plus Highfield, Bowes. Southgate and Wood Green - 75251. Remaining Enfield wards plus Bounds Gn, Woodside, Noel Pk, Alexandra Pk. Hornsey - 74994. Remaining Haringey wards west of the railway plus Harringay; also Brownswood and Woodberry Down from Hackney. Tottenham - 71193. Remaining Haringey wards. Hackney North - 75401. Current seat (realigned) less Brownswood, Woodberry Down, Dalston and plus King's Park. Hackney South - 75197. Remaining Hackney wards except De Beauvoir. Islington South - 75905. Current seat plus De Beauvoir. Islington North - 73970. Unchanged.
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,042
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Post by ilerda on Mar 26, 2021 10:28:10 GMT
The Hounslow area is a bit brutal but I think the following works.
Twickenham - 75889. The current seat less Whitton. Hounslow and Feltham - 75749. Hanworth x 2, Feltham x 2, Bedfont, Cranford, all the wards with Hounslow in the name except South. This isn't great but it's an improvement on the current map, which slices right through the town centre. Brentford and Heston - 75831. Remaining wards of LB Hounslow, less the Chiswicks but plus Whitton. I never said it was going to be beautiful but it's contiguous and within range.
Hammersmith and Chiswick - 75172. Chiswick x 3 plus Hammersmith, Grove, Addison and all H&F wards north of these. Admittedly this does cut very close to Hammersmith town centre. Fulham - 74759. Remaining H&F wards plus Earl's Ct and Redcliffe from K&C. Kensington and Chelsea - 74946. The rest of K&C.
Obverve all six of these seats are well above average size.
This is a good way of making Hounslow work. Alternatively at the H&F/K&C end you could do: Hammersmith and Chiswick - 75865 Chiswick x3 plus Fulham Reach, North End, Hammersmith B'way, Ravenscourt, Avonmore & BG, Addison, Askew (ie central Hammersmith, north of Lillie Road and south of Shepherd's Bush) Chelsea and Fulham - 76942 the 6 H&F wards south of Lille Road plus Earl's Court, Courtfield, Brompton, and everywhere south of that. Kensington and Shepherd's Bush - 71184 Shepherd's Bush, Wormolt, College Park, plus all the remaining K&C wards. Yes it includes one more tow-borough seat, but in a review like this one I don't see that as a problem when some will end up being 3 or 4 borough. I also think it reflects communities quite well.
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Post by islington on Mar 26, 2021 10:29:51 GMT
The Hounslow area is a bit brutal but I think the following works.
Twickenham - 75889. The current seat less Whitton. Hounslow and Feltham - 75749. Hanworth x 2, Feltham x 2, Bedfont, Cranford, all the wards with Hounslow in the name except South. This isn't great but it's an improvement on the current map, which slices right through the town centre. Brentford and Heston - 75831. Remaining wards of LB Hounslow, less the Chiswicks but plus Whitton. I never said it was going to be beautiful but it's contiguous and within range.
Hammersmith and Chiswick - 75172. Chiswick x 3 plus Hammersmith, Grove, Addison and all H&F wards north of these. Admittedly this does cut very close to Hammersmith town centre. Fulham - 74759. Remaining H&F wards plus Earl's Ct and Redcliffe from K&C. Kensington and Chelsea - 74946. The rest of K&C.
Obverve all six of these seats are well above average size.
(1) Chiswick and Shepherds Bush would be a better name and I would have no objection in principle to a seat along the Goldhawk Road/Chiswick High Road axis. Chiswick wards have more in common with those to the east in H&F than to the west in Hounslow. (2) The only potential improvement would be to see if the Southfield ward of Ealing, which is largely in the W4 postcode area could somehow be included as this was popular at the last review. (3) Would Ravenscourt be in this seat? - I'm trying not to worry too much about names at this stage.
- This would make the seat too big besides extending it into three boroughs.
- Yes.
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Post by kevinlarkin on Mar 26, 2021 11:05:28 GMT
Belsize, Camden Town, Fortune Green, Frognal, Hampstead Town, Highgate, Kentish Town North, Kilburn, Primrose Hill, South Hampstead, West Hampstead 70,086Bloomsbury, Camden Square, Gospel Oak, Haverstock, Holborn & Covent Garden, Kentish Town South, Kings Cross, Regent's Park, St Pancras & Somers Town 70,212That might be the best you can do in Camden. Actually I think there's something wrong with the new figures for Camden. The figures for the whole borough add up, but at ward level something looks off. If you draw that Hampstead Highgate and Camden Town on the old boundaries it's in quota without Kentish Hill North. I'm not seeing where the boundary changes shift 6000 electors out. The most obvious issue is in Fortune Green. The only boundary change adds one side of a street, but it apparently loses 1500 electors. Regent's Park is unchanged, but has lost 26 electors. Can any of our more local contributors add anything on this situation? Edit: 26 was the number of attainers in Regent's Park in the January figures. Holborn & Covent Garden has also lost exactly the number of attainers, despite substantial boundary changes. Agree that some of the Camden ward numbers look implausible. I will put them up on Boundary Assistant with a caveat and raise the issue with the BCE.
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Post by islington on Mar 26, 2021 11:52:36 GMT
Right, that leaves the rest of north London with 897004 electors = 12.22 = 12 seats.
Cities of London and Westminster - 74901. The City plus all the Westminster wards not in the following seat. Paddington - 74473. All Westminster wards lying wholly or mainly in the former borough of Paddington, plus Kilburn and Queens Park from Brent. Willesden - 76812. Remaining Brent wards within the N Circular Rd, plus Dollis Hill, Stonebridge, Tokyngton. Wembley - 75287. Remaining Brent wards except Kenton and Queensbury. Harrow South and Kenton - 75804. Kenton x 3 and Queensbury plus Greenhill, Harrow on the Hill, W Harrow, N Harrow, Roxbourne, Rayners La. This is really awkward and needs more work.
Ealing and Acton - 74683. Unchanged except for ward realignment. Southall - 74554. Current seat (realigned) plus N Hanwell. Greenford - 73711. The current Ealing N (realigned) less N Hanwell and plus Roxeth from Harrow. Ruislip and Pinner - 71750. Ruislip, Ruislip Manor, Northwood x 2, Eastcote, Pinner x 2, Hatch End. Harrow North - 76672. All remaining Harrow wards. Hayes and Harlington - 72897. Unchanged except for ward realignment. Uxbridge - 75700. All remaining Hillingdon wards.
Mostly it's not too bad but I'll gladly buy a virtual pint for anyone that can find a workable east/west split in Harrow in place of the mess I've suggested above.
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Post by greenhert on Mar 26, 2021 12:24:43 GMT
Right, that leaves the rest of north London with 897004 electors = 12.22 = 12 seats.
Cities of London and Westminster - 74901. The City plus all the Westminster wards not in the following seat. Paddington - 74473. All Westminster wards lying wholly or mainly in the former borough of Paddington, plus Kilburn and Queens Park from Brent. Willesden - 76812. Remaining Brent wards within the N Circular Rd, plus Dollis Hill, Stonebridge, Tokyngton. Wembley - 75287. Remaining Brent wards except Kenton and Queensbury. Harrow South and Kenton - 75804. Kenton x 3 and Queensbury plus Greenhill, Harrow on the Hill, W Harrow, N Harrow, Roxbourne, Rayners La. This is really awkward and needs more work.
Ealing and Acton - 74683. Unchanged except for ward realignment. Southall - 74554. Current seat (realigned) plus N Hanwell. Greenford - 73711. The current Ealing N (realigned) less N Hanwell and plus Roxeth from Harrow. Ruislip and Pinner - 71750. Ruislip, Ruislip Manor, Northwood x 2, Eastcote, Pinner x 2, Hatch End. Harrow North - 76672. All remaining Harrow wards. Hayes and Harlington - 72897. Unchanged except for ward realignment. Uxbridge - 75700. All remaining Hillingdon wards.
Mostly it's not too bad but I'll gladly buy a virtual pint for anyone that can find a workable east/west split in Harrow in place of the mess I've suggested above.
If you are including all the Westminster wards not in your version of Paddington (incidentally a similar seat was proposed by the BCE for the aborted 2018 review), then your Cities of London & Westminster seat should be renamed "City of London, Old Westminster, and St Marylebone". Also if your Ruislip & Pinner seat still contains Northwood wards it should retain the Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner name, especially since the changes in that proposed seat are not that substantial.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,369
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Post by YL on Mar 26, 2021 12:51:58 GMT
There is no way that islington would propose a name like "City of London, Old Westminster, and St Marylebone".
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Mar 26, 2021 13:39:34 GMT
I too have been looking at London. The overriding problem is that north of the Thames there are too many electors chasing too few seats so Camden, with an entitlement of 1.91, can't be treated alone because it would simply worsen the problems elsewhere. I am taken, however, with the idea floated by greenhert of pairing it with Barnet. This combination comes to 5.11 = 5 seats, and here's a way of doing it that doesn't look too bad: Hendon - 76673. Edgware, Mill Hill, Burnt Oak, Colindale x 2, Hendon, W Hendon, Cricklewood. Barnet - 76187. Barnet Vale, Brunswick Pk, E Barnet, Edgwarebury, High Barnet, Totteridge, Underhill, Whetstone. Finchley - 71134. Finchley x 3, Friern Barnet, Garden Suburb, Golders Gn, Woodhouse. Hampstead - 75420. Childs Hill, Belsize, Fortune Gn, Frognal, Hampstead Tn, Highgate, Kentish Tn x 2, Kilburn, S Hampstead, W Hampstead. Holborn and St Pancras - 75892. Remaining Camden wards.
I have two problems with this suggestion. The smaller problem is that Highgate and the two Kentish Town wards are only contiguous with the rest of your Hampstead constituency across Hampstead Heath, the only road link arguably within the constituency being along its northern boundary, with all residential property along much of it being in either Haringey or Barnet's Garden Suburb ward. i'd prefer to swap Gospel Oak (on the southern edge of Hampstead Heath) from Holborn and St Pancras into Hampstead, and Kentish Town South out of Hampstead into Holborn and St Pancras - this amounts to a net addition of something over 1,000 voters to Hampstead, but Hampstead still remains fairly comfortably within quota. (This is all, of course, only OK subject to any corrections that need to be made to Camden ward data.)
The larger problem is the inclusion of Edgewarebury in your Barnet constituency. Edgwarebury's main local links are southwards into Edgware and Mill Hill wards - while it has borders to its east with (the new) High Barnet and Totteridge & Woodside wards, it is in practice separated from both wards by three miles or so of green belt interrupted only by some very low-density residential development along the couple of main roads across it. By public transport, one could get into central London from Edgewarebury in no more time than to HIgh Barnet.
An alternative solution that avoids this problem, though it causes other (I think marginally less bad) ones, would be to alter your suggestion so as to leave Edgewarebury with its southern neighbours, and adjust for this by altering your Barnet constituency to include Woodhouse ward, and compensate Finchley with Hendon ward (though I don't know what one would then call the Hendon constituency).
Or try to go for something entirely different - one of the difficulties here is that the size and positioning of Barnet's new wards makes it simpler to remove two wards and about 20,000 voters from Barnet and divide the rest of the borough into three constituencies of roughly between 70,000 and 72,000 voters each than to remove just one ward and about 10,000 voters and divide the rest into three constituencies of about 75,000 voters. But while Camden by itself is only just above the minimum for two constituencies and adding 10,000 voters makes it far easier to get two constituencies, adding 20,000 voters to Camden puts it above the two-constituency maximum. I may have missed a better solution that works for a pairing with Camden - but equally a grouping with other neighbours might work better.
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 26, 2021 13:48:10 GMT
There is no way that islington would propose a name like "City of London, Old Westminster, and St Marylebone". Has doktorb hacked his account?
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Post by islington on Mar 26, 2021 14:28:58 GMT
I too have been looking at London. The overriding problem is that north of the Thames there are too many electors chasing too few seats so Camden, with an entitlement of 1.91, can't be treated alone because it would simply worsen the problems elsewhere. I am taken, however, with the idea floated by greenhert of pairing it with Barnet. This combination comes to 5.11 = 5 seats, and here's a way of doing it that doesn't look too bad: Hendon - 76673. Edgware, Mill Hill, Burnt Oak, Colindale x 2, Hendon, W Hendon, Cricklewood. Barnet - 76187. Barnet Vale, Brunswick Pk, E Barnet, Edgwarebury, High Barnet, Totteridge, Underhill, Whetstone. Finchley - 71134. Finchley x 3, Friern Barnet, Garden Suburb, Golders Gn, Woodhouse. Hampstead - 75420. Childs Hill, Belsize, Fortune Gn, Frognal, Hampstead Tn, Highgate, Kentish Tn x 2, Kilburn, S Hampstead, W Hampstead. Holborn and St Pancras - 75892. Remaining Camden wards.
I have two problems with this suggestion. The smaller problem is that Highgate and the two Kentish Town wards are only contiguous with the rest of your Hampstead constituency across Hampstead Heath, the only road link arguably within the constituency being along its northern boundary, with all residential property along much of it being in either Haringey or Barnet's Garden Suburb ward. i'd prefer to swap Gospel Oak (on the southern edge of Hampstead Heath) from Holborn and St Pancras into Hampstead, and Kentish Town South out of Hampstead into Holborn and St Pancras - this amounts to a net addition of something over 1,000 voters to Hampstead, but Hampstead still remains fairly comfortably within quota. (This is all, of course, only OK subject to any corrections that need to be made to Camden ward data.)
The larger problem is the inclusion of Edgewarebury in your Barnet constituency. Edgwarebury's main local links are southwards into Edgware and Mill Hill wards - while it has borders to its east with (the new) High Barnet and Totteridge & Woodside wards, it is in practice separated from both wards by three miles or so of green belt interrupted only by some very low-density residential development along the couple of main roads across it. By public transport, one could get into central London from Edgewarebury in no more time than to HIgh Barnet.
An alternative solution that avoids this problem, though it causes other (I think marginally less bad) ones, would be to alter your suggestion so as to leave Edgewarebury with its southern neighbours, and adjust for this by altering your Barnet constituency to include Woodhouse ward, and compensate Finchley with Hendon ward (though I don't know what one would then call the Hendon constituency).
Or try to go for something entirely different - one of the difficulties here is that the size and positioning of Barnet's new wards makes it simpler to remove two wards and about 20,000 voters from Barnet and divide the rest of the borough into three constituencies of roughly between 70,000 and 72,000 voters each than to remove just one ward and about 10,000 voters and divide the rest into three constituencies of about 75,000 voters. But while Camden by itself is only just above the minimum for two constituencies and adding 10,000 voters makes it far easier to get two constituencies, adding 20,000 voters to Camden puts it above the two-constituency maximum. I may have missed a better solution that works for a pairing with Camden - but equally a grouping with other neighbours might work better.
All very fair comments. I completely agree that Edgwarebury should be in the same seat as Edgware but, in the context of a combination with Camden, I couldn't see how to achieve it without causing worse issues elsewhere. Woodhouse is really a core Finchley ward, and for obvious reasons I'd be reluctant to take Hendon out of Hendon. At any rate, I hope you'll grant that this version of Barnet, whatever its defects, is streets ahead of what I was proposing based on the old wards.
The plans I've posted in Barnet and elsewhere in north London are definitely initial thoughts rather than final thoughts. At this stage, more than anything else it's a case of 'proof of concept': i.e. is it possible to assign 32 seats to this area, even though its entitlement (32.67) is much nearer to 33, without doing anything completely mad?
Once BA is available we can all go in quest of better arrangements and I expect they're there to be found.
However, given the large average size of seats in north London I'd be sceptical of any scheme that involved three relatively small seats in Barnet. In fact, at a quick count, I think that of the 32 seats across the area as a whole I had only four below the UK average of 73393, so having three in Barnet alone probably wouldn't work and even if it did, might be thought unfair to the rest of north London.
The obvious alternative arrangement for Barnet would be to treat it with Harrow and Hillingdon (8.11). I intend to look at this option once BA is available but it would still mean that Barnet sheds only one ward (either Edgware or (perhaps better) Burnt Oak).
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Post by islington on Mar 26, 2021 15:03:10 GMT
For a bit of i-dotting and t-crossing, with the Merton and Sutton numbers now available we can confirm arrangements in south west London.
Richmond Park - 73069. RuT south of the river plus Coombe x 2 and Tudor. Wimbledon and Malden - 76123. Old Malden, St James, Beverley; W Barnes, Raynes Pk, Cannon Hill, Village, Hillside, W'don Tn, W'don Pk, Wandle. Kingston and Surbiton - 70336. Remaining Kingston wards. Mitcham and Morden - 75217. Remaining Merton wards except Graveney. Tooting - 73080. Graveney x 2, Furzedown, Tooting, Earlsfield, W'worth Cm, Nightingale. Sutton and Cheam - 71284. Unchanged except for ward realignment.
Carshalton and Wallington - 72755. Ditto.
Lambeth and the rest of Wandsworth as I had them before.
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Post by islington on Mar 26, 2021 21:50:16 GMT
Too small to see properly, I know, but here's a London-wide map incorporating the plans I've suggested over the last couple of days using the new ward data - and huge thanks as ever to kevinlarkin for the wonderful BA site.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 26, 2021 21:51:28 GMT
Is it updated on the site? Still showing the old map for me..
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Post by islington on Mar 26, 2021 21:59:40 GMT
Is it updated on the site? Still showing the old map for me.. I had to clear my browser history to get it to work.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 26, 2021 22:21:56 GMT
Well here's a start for North London which at least represents a discreet group of boroughs. I'm not happy with all aspects. I know Peter Wilkinson won't be happy with Mill Hill going into Chipping Barnet and I'm not that happy with it either. I'd envisaged doing a cross borough seat with Barnet and Brent and might still settle on that but the numbers in the remainder of Barnet didn't work very well with just removing Cricklewood. Mark this one as provisional
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 26, 2021 22:39:06 GMT
This is a bit back of a fag packet (i've had a tiring week and was headed for an early night so the timing is not great). I know there is a consensus for not crossing the Thames and I'd agree with that ideally but it isn't the worst here (and after all its the same borough) and I think will make life easier both North and South of the river. I'm sure there's plenty room for improvement yet... Edit: Put Addison, Brook Green and Avonmore in the Kensington & Chelsea seat instead of the three I have above
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 26, 2021 23:17:23 GMT
An alternative solution in the Barnet and Harrow areas
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 27, 2021 8:19:19 GMT
I'm fairly happy with what I've got in South East London here, which pretty well maintains existing arrangements. I've had to butcher Sutton here which is unfortunate as it could stand alone but it would do so with two small seats so the whole Sutton/Merton/Wandsworth area is a bit of an unsatisfactory mess
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 27, 2021 9:26:40 GMT
Slight amendment - move Ferndale to Vauxhall, Coldharbour to D&WN, Knights Hill to Streatham Also swapping Cricket Green and Colliers Wood might be an improvement
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 27, 2021 10:52:55 GMT
A bit of tidying up the South West - keeps all of Mitcham together (and Wimbledon more or less), leaves Sutton & Cheam intact
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