Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815 
Member is Online
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 14, 2020 21:25:39 GMT
The DeViations from national average of the margins (Republicans/Whigs minus Democrats) since 1828: drive.google.com/file/d/1dM0p_x7_uoFHFvdxAZX4-GF_2NkJJl19/view?usp=sharingThe uselessness as soon as strong challenges of third parties - Dixiecrats, Th.Roosevelt, Perot aso. - arose must be taken into account. The numbers are taken from Wikipedia, so minor mistakes are certain. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815
Member is Online
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 16, 2020 3:03:42 GMT
The 2020-map, if the margin between both candidates had been 0% (naturally based on a uniform swing):  Biden winning the RustBelt hid the fact, that The Blue Wall remained - apart from MN with its many graduates - right of the national average and didn't move towards the son from Scranton:  |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
|
Post by iain on Dec 16, 2020 11:38:13 GMT
The 2020-map, if the margin between both candidates had been 0% (naturally based on a uniform swing): Biden winning the RustBelt hid the fact, that The Blue Wall remained - apart from MN with its many graduates - right of the national average and didn't move towards the son from Scranton: The changes from 2016 are Biden ‘gaining’ Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska 2nd, while Trump ‘gains’ Nevada. |
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Dec 16, 2020 11:47:55 GMT
The 2020-map, if the margin between both candidates had been 0% (naturally based on a uniform swing): Biden winning the RustBelt hid the fact, that The Blue Wall remained - apart from MN with its many graduates - right of the national average and didn't move towards the son from Scranton: The changes from 2016 are Biden ‘gaining’ Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nebraska 2nd, while Trump ‘gains’ Nevada. Gallons of ink were used by the quality press advising that Minnesota would shift towards Trump. www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mining-for-votes-how-trump-plans-to-win-minnesota-tmzf5dkrh (paywall) |
|
|
|
Post by islington on Dec 16, 2020 12:38:40 GMT
So - if that map is based on exact equality in the national popular vote, what swing would Biden have needed to win in the EC? A 2% swing would give him MI, PA, WI, with 46 EVs. Would a 2% swing also have given Biden any or all of AZ, GA or NV?
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
|
Post by The Bishop on Dec 16, 2020 12:44:43 GMT
So the "dead heat" map slightly improved for the Democrats compared with 2016? That in itself is interesting.
|
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,786
|
Post by john07 on Dec 16, 2020 13:26:02 GMT
So - if that map is based on exact equality in the national popular vote, what swing would Biden have needed to win in the EC? A 2% swing would give him MI, PA, WI, with 46 EVs. Would a 2% swing also have given Biden any or all of AZ, GA or NV?
Why bring NV into things as it has voted Democrat in Presidential elections since 2008? For me, the problem is that the swing is anything but uniform. The likes of Ohio, Iowa, Florida, etc are trending away from the Democrats while Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, and Arizona are trending to the Democrats. |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
|
Post by YL on Dec 16, 2020 14:09:51 GMT
So - if that map is based on exact equality in the national popular vote, what swing would Biden have needed to win in the EC? A 2% swing would give him MI, PA, WI, with 46 EVs. Would a 2% swing also have given Biden any or all of AZ, GA or NV?
Why bring NV into things as it has voted Democrat in Presidential elections since 2008? Because, as the map above shows, if you apply a uniform swing to get a dead heat, Nevada is one of the states which flips Republican. The answer to islington's question is that (in the real world) Nevada had a bigger margin than Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, so yes to it but not to Arizona or Georgia. Had Trump won Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, the three closest states which Biden won, there'd have been a 269-269 tie, with Trump almost certainly winning in the contingent election in the House. So if you apply uniform swings Biden needed a margin of 3.8 percentage points (his actual margin minus his margin in Wisconsin). |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815
Member is Online
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 16, 2020 18:00:29 GMT
So - if that map is based on exact equality in the national popular vote, what swing would Biden have needed to win in the EC? A 2% swing would give him MI, PA, WI, with 46 EVs. Would a 2% swing also have given Biden any or all of AZ, GA or NV?
NV is second, after MI and before PA and WI (which was the TippingPoint-state this time). In WI Biden was 1.86% below national average and Trump 1.96% above, so a swing of 1.91%, a margin of 3.82% (as YL stated) would have been required for Biden to win. |
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,786
|
Post by john07 on Dec 16, 2020 18:26:47 GMT
Why bring NV into things as it has voted Democrat in Presidential elections since 2008? Because, as the map above shows, if you apply a uniform swing to get a dead heat, Nevada is one of the states which flips Republican. To me, this fits into the ‘very cleaver but what does it prove?’ category. We haven’t seen anything like a uniform swing for some time. Nor are we likely to do so in the future. The issues of demographic change together with the spread of the Tech industries are the key factors for me. |
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Dec 17, 2020 10:26:29 GMT
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
|
Post by The Bishop on Dec 17, 2020 12:51:57 GMT
Had Trump won Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, the three closest states which Biden won, there'd have been a 269-269 tie, with Trump almost certainly winning in the contingent election in the House There is an argument that a tie in the electoral college should be the one occasion when the nationwide popular vote actually counts. |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815
Member is Online
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 20, 2020 21:00:26 GMT
2024, if the trend 2016-2020 continued unchanged (won't happen, of course):  Based on the trend of both Trump-elections:  Finally the trend of 2008-2012:  |
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815
Member is Online
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 22, 2022 7:16:26 GMT
Sorry, if someone else has already posted this:
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815
Member is Online
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 3, 2022 22:17:31 GMT
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,815
Member is Online
|
Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 8, 2022 19:23:48 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Sept 8, 2022 20:10:26 GMT
Maine is kind of interesting. I've been up there and I'm not sure I'd call it working class. |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,380
|
Post by stb12 on Sept 8, 2022 20:44:50 GMT
Maine was one of only two states to not vote for FDR in any of his four election wins
The other being Vermont which feels even more bizarre when you look at how solidly Democrat it now is
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2022 23:55:02 GMT
I believe Vermont's run of voting for Republican presidents is still the longest single-party voting streak of any state at the presidential level
|
|
|
|
Post by ClevelandYorks on Sept 9, 2022 2:15:42 GMT
Curious about the Native counties, did that group swing to Trump? |
|
