Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2020 18:04:39 GMT
Kettering
The Kettering constituency is coterminous with former borough of the same name in mid Northamptonshire. As well as Kettering itself, it contains the towns of Rothwell, Desborough and Burton Latimer as well as various rural settlements between and to the north east of the four towns.
Human activity in the area can be traced back to the bronze age in Desborough and the Iron Age in Kettering; a thriving Roman town stood on the site where Kettering is now, although it was abandoned towards the end of the Roman era. Another settlement was started in the tenth century. Rothwell is also a Saxon town, whose name derives from the Old Danish for “red wall” (no, not that red wall). Rothwell was once one of the third largest towns in Northamptonshire (alongside Northampton and Stamford, the second of which is now in Lincolnshire), although it declined in importance as the industrial revolution largely bypassed it in favour of nearby towns. Desborough had some industry from the 17th century onwards, first in the wool industry, then silk manufacture, then in the shoemaking business that dominated the county town of Northampton and was significant elsewhere in the county. However, it was not an industrial town to the extent of Corby, and the industry has largely disappeared. Industry came more recently to Burton Latimer, with ironstone quarrying from the 1870s and clothing manufacture from the 1880s, but it also hung around for longer and was far more instrumental in the creation of the town as it is today. Quarrying only ceased in 1983 and some industry has returned since 2000, most notably Weetabix which is made in the town. Kettering’s industry also exploded in the 19th century; like in Northampton it was mostly boot and shoe making. This had a notable impact on the way the city grew, with many large and very grand houses being built for the factory owners, and smaller terraced housing being built for the workers. The industry has more or less disappeared since the 1970s, although its effects on the town still loom large. One final piece of history is that Geddington, a small village between Kettering and Corby, contains one of only three extant Eleanor Crosses (from the 12 originally built); this is presumably why the ward is named “Queen Eleanor & Buccleuch”. The other two are at Hardingstone, Northants; and Waltham Cross, Herts (for a fuller explanation of what an Eleanor Cross is, see the South Northamptonshire profile).
Kettering is the fifth most deprived constituency in Northamptonshire, and the 289th most deprived in England, comparable to Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Reading West, and Hendon. This hides the reality that it is a very divided constituency, with LSOAs in the most and least deprived deciles and everywhere in between. Home ownerships about 6 points above the UK average at 69.4%; social renting is significantly lower than average at just 13.1% compared to 18.2% UK-wide. Again there is significant variation; home-ownership ranges from just 45.6% in William Knibb ward and 46.5% in Avondale Grange ward (the two wards covering Kettering town centre) to 87.2% and 88.9% in Isle Lodge in the east of Kettering, and Barton, in the south of the town. Equally, just 1.7% of households in Ise Lodge ward are socially rented, while that figure is 37.3% in Avondale Grange. Managerial occupations are below average in the constituency, although the difference is not made up in manual and elementary occupations, but rather in the middle two categories; skilled labour, care work, and customer services. Average earnings are slightly below the national and more or less in line with the regional average; however men earn above average for UK men while women earn below average for UK women. In terms of industry, the percentage of residents employed in human health and social work is significantly above average and manufacturing is slightly above, presumably mostly in Burton Latimer.
The average age is roughly the same as the UK average; higher qualification levels are under-represented in the population and a higher than average share of the population have no qualifications. 92% of people in the seat were born in the UK, 5 points higher than the national average, and the constituency is 93% white, with only two wards under 90%. With this profile, it is perhaps unsurprising that the seat voted 61% for leave in the 2016 referendum.
Although the constituency goes back to 1918, we can safely discard everything before 1983, due to the inclusion of Corby which will have altered the political dynamic of the seat to such an extent as to make any comparison almost meaningless. At the inaugural election in 1983, Conservative Roger Freeman won the seat with 48.4% of the vote, a 17.9% majority over the SDP. There was little change in ’87, but in 1992 Labour 12.4 points to overtake the Liberal Democrats into second place. The 9.9% swing in 1997 was almost identical to the swing nationwide, and Labour gained the seat with a majority of just 0.3% or 189 votes. 2001 saw little change, the Labour majority climbing to 665 votes or 1.2%, before the seat was almost inevitably gained by the Conservatives in 2005. Since then, it has been almost entirely one-way traffic, and in 2019 Conservative Philip Hollobone won 60.3% of the vote a majority of 33.9%.
The reasoning behind this pattern is a familiar story. Bits of urban deprivation and some industrial history give Labour a base to start from. The average nature of the workforce – not overwhelmed with bankers or managers and not dominated by low-paid manual jobs – alongside the almost average incomes, makes it the archetype of the kind of seat that swung from Tory in the 80s to Labour in ’97 and the early 2000s. However, the low deprivation, high home-ownership, low education scores and high proportion of white-British people have contributed to Conservative dominance since then ad especially since 2016.
In terms of political geography, Labour perform best in central Kettering, regularly winning the Avondale Grange, William Kibb and Northside wards. Although electoral calculus reckons that the Conservatives carried every ward in 2019, the first two of these will have remained significantly stronger for Labour and were almost certainly carried by the party up until the last election (and perhaps even at that election). There is some Labour strength in Rothwell and Burton Latimer, although those tows will still be mostly Conservative overall.
Overall, this is a naturally Conservative seat that was only won by Labour in two of the three Blair elections, and then by very narrow margins. Corbynism, brexit, and something of a return to political normality for the area has shifted it deep into the Conservative column, and it seems highly likely to remain safely Conservative for the foreseeable future.
The Kettering constituency is coterminous with former borough of the same name in mid Northamptonshire. As well as Kettering itself, it contains the towns of Rothwell, Desborough and Burton Latimer as well as various rural settlements between and to the north east of the four towns.
Human activity in the area can be traced back to the bronze age in Desborough and the Iron Age in Kettering; a thriving Roman town stood on the site where Kettering is now, although it was abandoned towards the end of the Roman era. Another settlement was started in the tenth century. Rothwell is also a Saxon town, whose name derives from the Old Danish for “red wall” (no, not that red wall). Rothwell was once one of the third largest towns in Northamptonshire (alongside Northampton and Stamford, the second of which is now in Lincolnshire), although it declined in importance as the industrial revolution largely bypassed it in favour of nearby towns. Desborough had some industry from the 17th century onwards, first in the wool industry, then silk manufacture, then in the shoemaking business that dominated the county town of Northampton and was significant elsewhere in the county. However, it was not an industrial town to the extent of Corby, and the industry has largely disappeared. Industry came more recently to Burton Latimer, with ironstone quarrying from the 1870s and clothing manufacture from the 1880s, but it also hung around for longer and was far more instrumental in the creation of the town as it is today. Quarrying only ceased in 1983 and some industry has returned since 2000, most notably Weetabix which is made in the town. Kettering’s industry also exploded in the 19th century; like in Northampton it was mostly boot and shoe making. This had a notable impact on the way the city grew, with many large and very grand houses being built for the factory owners, and smaller terraced housing being built for the workers. The industry has more or less disappeared since the 1970s, although its effects on the town still loom large. One final piece of history is that Geddington, a small village between Kettering and Corby, contains one of only three extant Eleanor Crosses (from the 12 originally built); this is presumably why the ward is named “Queen Eleanor & Buccleuch”. The other two are at Hardingstone, Northants; and Waltham Cross, Herts (for a fuller explanation of what an Eleanor Cross is, see the South Northamptonshire profile).
Kettering is the fifth most deprived constituency in Northamptonshire, and the 289th most deprived in England, comparable to Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Reading West, and Hendon. This hides the reality that it is a very divided constituency, with LSOAs in the most and least deprived deciles and everywhere in between. Home ownerships about 6 points above the UK average at 69.4%; social renting is significantly lower than average at just 13.1% compared to 18.2% UK-wide. Again there is significant variation; home-ownership ranges from just 45.6% in William Knibb ward and 46.5% in Avondale Grange ward (the two wards covering Kettering town centre) to 87.2% and 88.9% in Isle Lodge in the east of Kettering, and Barton, in the south of the town. Equally, just 1.7% of households in Ise Lodge ward are socially rented, while that figure is 37.3% in Avondale Grange. Managerial occupations are below average in the constituency, although the difference is not made up in manual and elementary occupations, but rather in the middle two categories; skilled labour, care work, and customer services. Average earnings are slightly below the national and more or less in line with the regional average; however men earn above average for UK men while women earn below average for UK women. In terms of industry, the percentage of residents employed in human health and social work is significantly above average and manufacturing is slightly above, presumably mostly in Burton Latimer.
The average age is roughly the same as the UK average; higher qualification levels are under-represented in the population and a higher than average share of the population have no qualifications. 92% of people in the seat were born in the UK, 5 points higher than the national average, and the constituency is 93% white, with only two wards under 90%. With this profile, it is perhaps unsurprising that the seat voted 61% for leave in the 2016 referendum.
Although the constituency goes back to 1918, we can safely discard everything before 1983, due to the inclusion of Corby which will have altered the political dynamic of the seat to such an extent as to make any comparison almost meaningless. At the inaugural election in 1983, Conservative Roger Freeman won the seat with 48.4% of the vote, a 17.9% majority over the SDP. There was little change in ’87, but in 1992 Labour 12.4 points to overtake the Liberal Democrats into second place. The 9.9% swing in 1997 was almost identical to the swing nationwide, and Labour gained the seat with a majority of just 0.3% or 189 votes. 2001 saw little change, the Labour majority climbing to 665 votes or 1.2%, before the seat was almost inevitably gained by the Conservatives in 2005. Since then, it has been almost entirely one-way traffic, and in 2019 Conservative Philip Hollobone won 60.3% of the vote a majority of 33.9%.
The reasoning behind this pattern is a familiar story. Bits of urban deprivation and some industrial history give Labour a base to start from. The average nature of the workforce – not overwhelmed with bankers or managers and not dominated by low-paid manual jobs – alongside the almost average incomes, makes it the archetype of the kind of seat that swung from Tory in the 80s to Labour in ’97 and the early 2000s. However, the low deprivation, high home-ownership, low education scores and high proportion of white-British people have contributed to Conservative dominance since then ad especially since 2016.
In terms of political geography, Labour perform best in central Kettering, regularly winning the Avondale Grange, William Kibb and Northside wards. Although electoral calculus reckons that the Conservatives carried every ward in 2019, the first two of these will have remained significantly stronger for Labour and were almost certainly carried by the party up until the last election (and perhaps even at that election). There is some Labour strength in Rothwell and Burton Latimer, although those tows will still be mostly Conservative overall.
Overall, this is a naturally Conservative seat that was only won by Labour in two of the three Blair elections, and then by very narrow margins. Corbynism, brexit, and something of a return to political normality for the area has shifted it deep into the Conservative column, and it seems highly likely to remain safely Conservative for the foreseeable future.
